Last week Ed Davey gave a well received keynote speech advocating a new Growth and Defence Partnership (‘Partnership’) with the European Union (EU) at the European Movement UK’s event marking the tenth anniversary of the 2016 Brexit referendum. For many members, having and making a clear overarching national message to complement our local strengths is long overdue. This became apparent in the 7 May local elections. Although we gained more council seats for the eighth time in a row, our national vote share was 2% down on last year’s 16%. In my part of the world and elsewhere, it was concerning we lost votes, often because we did not have a clear national message, notably on joining the EU.

Ed’s speech lays the foundation for one. He rightly linked a bold commitment to a deep EU Partnership to alleviation of the urgent crises facing our country, notably cost of living and chronic underfunding of public services. Progressing the Partnership is urgent: many struggle to pay bills, hospital waiting lists remain long, social care is inadequate and the Russians regularly infringe our sovereignty on land, sea, air, and cyber.

The party, in particular the leadership, needs to keep outlining how the Partnership can help generate up to an extra £90bn a year for the Treasury’s coffers.  That is roughly 10 times more than our EU membership fee at the time we left. I have heard few other policies which could contribute as meaningfully to the growth, well-being and defence of our country. Once secured, it is vital that the fruits of that growth are managed sustainably and equitably.

The considerable damage of Brexit is well documented and is increasingly understood, but understanding how we might join the EU is less so.  A new vision setting out a roadmap for joining the EU therefore needs to complement the Growth and Economic Partnership.

We were the first party to affirm our commitment to the longer term goal of ‘rejoining’ the EU (at Autumn 2020 conference). Since then we have repeatedly reaffirmed our commitment to gradual steps including a working paper and Al Pinkerton’s Customs Union Bill. Incremental measures progressing closer relations with the EU were appropriate to immediate post-departure circumstances, but they no longer offer a bold message which will attract public attention and support. Ed’s speech last week implicitly recognises the gradual step by step approach to full EU membership has been overtaken by developments and the deteriorating geo-political context, not least the Trump Administration’s continuous undermining of the NATO alliance and its  members, notably a more vulnerable UK outside the EU.

A bold national campaign centred around the Partnership, and ultimately joining the EU, is important not only to promote our peace and prosperity but also to face down Reform and distinguish ourselves from other progressive parties.  The disjuncture between referendums and parliamentary democracy mean Farage and his successive parties have yet to be held to account for their Brexit fiasco. It is ironic, if not outrageous, that the main instigator of our current mess is the leader of the party leading in national opinion polls. The Conservatives and Labour in government decided to progress the unworkable Brexit proposition which has so badly damaged the UK’s economy, unity, governance and international standing. Not surprisingly their support has collapsed.

Our poll ratings have lagged behind too, in part because we have not been bold in our opposition to Brexit. Ed’s call for a meaningful Growth and Defence Partnership ends that. Ed has called time on Brexit, and in so doing, called on a future Labour leader to ditch its hitherto slavish adherence to red lines on not joining the Customs Union and Single Market.

Some argue that a Customs Union and Single Market means we would not have a say in the legislation which might bind us. Whilst that may be largely true (non-EU members in the European Economic Area (EEA) can be consulted), Ed clearly outlined the Partnership is not the end goal.

Should any new Labour leader drop the Government’s red lines, it will take time for the Government to negotiate new arrangements. A first step would likely have to be joining the European Free Trade Association (EFTA), a process which could take 2-3 years unwinding inconsequential post-Brexit trade agreements, and then joining the EEA. It is unlikely the EU would want to replicate its time-consuming bespoke series of bilateral agreements with Switzerland. By the time of the 2029 General Election, barring a surprise snap poll, any Government progress on the Partnership is likely to be either slow or non-existent. Therefore our next General Election manifesto should make a headline commitment to making an application to join the EU along with a call for fair votes (introduction of a proportional voting system). Both commitments should be red lines should there be an opportunity to a form a future coalition Government or conclude a supply and confidence arrangement.

If we do make a bid to join, any UK application would have to be assessed by the EU Commission. The EU Council of Member States would then have to review the Commission’s ‘Opinion’ and approve the mandate to commence negotiations. The UK would be well qualified as we still retain much EU legislation – the question is more whether joining the EU is the settled will of the British people and has broad cross-party support. The shortest formal accession process to date (Finland) is 3 years, although it is possible a further deterioration of the international situation could accelerate that. All being well there could be a referendum in 2032 although it would be better if the principles of parliamentary democracy are reasserted. We elect representatives to parliament to make informed decisions on complex issues on our behalf, not have irresponsible politicians seize the opportunity of referendums to misinform us and evade accountability easily.

A serious national campaign to persuade the public of the benefits of the EU Growth and Defence Partnership most immediately means we need inter alia to make the case for free movement (a reciprocal right which shouldn’t be lazily lumped in with misperceptions about mass immigration) as one of the four Single Market freedoms. Making a positive case for economic and monetary union will in due course also have to be made as it will help grow the economy and demonstrate the UK is no longer semi-detached from the European mainstream. If we do not prepare to make the positive case for such issues, Eurosceptics will again win the argument by default, and any campaign to join the EU will be undermined. And the next campaign should also appeal to emotion. After all we want to take our country forward, not back!

* Nick Hopkinson is a widely published writer on EU and international Affairs including most recently the Policies and Power of Public Diplomacy https://www.routledge.com/The-Policies-and-Power-of-Public-Diplomacy-Wilton-Parks-Road/Hopkinson/p/book/9781032831251 He is a former Chair of the Liberal Democrat European Group and candidate, and was involved in Track II EU accession negotiations between 1994 and 2010.