Tim Farron has just sent the following email to party members:
12 months ago we suffered the worst defeat in our party’s history, yet in this election we have shown that when we get knocked down, we refuse to get knocked out.
I’m incredibly proud of all our candidates and grateful for their hard work and the commitment.
We are starting to see the result of our hard work and determination, and recognition of an unwavering commitment to the communities we wish to represent. These elections are starting to show that Liberal Democrats are in a position to grow.
In Scotland, Willie Rennie and Alex Cole-Hamilton gained seats – against the odds – from the SNP. And despite the full onslaught of the SNP machine we increased our share of the vote in both Orkney and Shetland.
In Wales, Kirsty Williams successfully defended her seat and increased her majority. This was a seat that was lost to the Tories last year by more than 5,000 votes.
In English council elections we have gained seats from both Labour and the Tories, and have won in areas which were previously no-go areas for the Lib Dems. We have made gains in Cambridge, Rugby, Hull, Sefton, Lincolnshire, Bury, and Sunderland.
As we are celebrating our victories, we should also recognise that some of our colleagues didn’t get the results that they deserve. They have been outstanding and I want to express my gratitude for their hard work, grit and courage.
Once again, I want thank you for your support and all that you have done over so many weeks, months, and years.
I will update you over the weekend as more results are declared.
Thanks,
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38 Comments
While it is too early to comment in detail, the results are not any sort of recovery. 1 AM in Wales, 5th behind the Greens in Scotland. 15 Council seats gained out of 84 Councils with full results in. More of the same won’t help, the party needs a radical rethink. If even Scottish Tories can do it and UKIP in Wales can do it, it can be done.
Interesting that both last night and this morning the BBC has Tory and Labour people in the studio, but no-one else.
Long story short: we are as unpopular this year as last with one or two small but locally welcome exceptions.
Where’s the leadership? Where is the message, the slogan, the themes., the sense of purpose, the differences, the USP?
So far we have 239 councillors elected, a net gain of 22. Comare that to 40 councillors for UKIP & 22 for The Greens. We are the Third Party in England & none of the possible candidates for fouth place come even close to us.
What we need to see are estimates for The National Equivalent Vote Share but theres already no doubt that we are well up on 2015 & that is a recovery.
We expected to get battered in Scotland & Wales but we hung on in Scotland.
Lets stop wallowing in despair & look at the real gains we have made.
At the moment the BBC have us making 27 English Council gains, while they have UKIP making 22 and the Tories and Labour both losing seats.
They also have us on 15% of the share of the vote and in third place.
Both of these are signs of an improvement in our position, but we knew it is a hard long road back – we are on it.
Damn! Should have waited. The BBC are estimating us on 15%, well ahead of UKIP on 12% & confirming that we are The Third Party in England again. I dont have the PNS figure for 2015 but we seem to be up about 5% on last year. In short, we have made up around two fifths of our losses from The Coalition years, in a single year. That is a sharp recovery.
I think it’s always hard to have an overall view, due to the phased nature of the council elections in many authorities — the Bristol count, which is not announced until later in the weekend, and is a first-time all-council election on a new 4-year cycle, will therefore be very interesting and not just for us who live ‘ere.
Hmmm, Cambridge in the ‘gains’? OK, there was a gain over a conservative regaining a seat, but 2 losses in the city to labour.
Yay! We have smashed it in Watford! 5 from Tories (wiped out); 1 from Lab.
25 seats to Lab’s 11. real good news.
Part of the problem Paul is that this has all been said before – after each year in 2010-15 (and a few times before that to be honest).
The mistake is seeing a few good results as indicative of an improving trend. Vote share (if it is indeed 15%) is both up and down. Down on 2012 when the equivalent seats were fought and up on 2015. There is AFAIK no predicted vote share for 2015 as it – usually because it is based on local votes is will be higher for the Lib Dems so your estimated of c.10% is probably about right. And the trend in 2010-15 was downward (15% in 2011, 16 in 2012, 14% in 2013, 13% in 2014).
The PNS was – pre 2010 – consistently above the party’s opinion poll ratings. That would seem to be the case now as they are in the 7-10% range.
What it does seem to point at is consistent with both polling and local by-elections. Generally the parties vote share is broadly the same as it was in the mid coalition years – however whereas at that time it was very rare for a strong campaign to lift a result up from the underlying trend that is, if not exactly easy, easier to do than it was at that point. That’s the glass half full bit (and there aren’t many elections which don’t have that. Possibly Mondale ’84 🙂
However that requires strong campaign teams, a high level of commitment and motivation. You also need a lot of things to go your way – the three big headline results (Brecon, NE Fife and Edin W) all had that. There seems to be a big leader effect in the devolved elections (see Leanne Wood and Ruth Davidson’s unexpected FPTP wins) which may have been a factor in the first two.
Don’t forget in Scotland we ran an outstanding campaign with strong messages, good organisation and an intelligently worked out plan for the situation we were in. Caron said the Lib Dems were winning the campaign, it was the best she’d been involved in and was way better than 2011. Look at it in in cold numbers and the Lib Dems got precisely nowhere. That’s a harsh way of putting the outcome but it demonstrates how far a little bit of improved organisation can actually take you.
Recently the BBC are saying that if this had been a general election we would have 19 MPs!
@Paul Barker
The BBC disagree with you and have us I think 1% down on 2012 where we were down on our normal pre-coalition share.
MichaelBG: if my Auntie had b*lls, she’d be my uncle. It wasn’t a General Election and anyone who tries to draw Commons conclusions from it is ‘unwise’.
There have been some great results but we do need a sense of perspective.
Like a super-tanker on the wrong course the Party hit the rocks last May and under a new Captain is having to remove itself from the rocks without sinking before it can be turned round.
These election results, with some notable exceptions, confirm how difficult Tim’s manourvering is going to be.
The reality is that these are the first post Government elections for the Party and should be compared with 2008 when last fought in opposition. We won 24% of the vote then. In 2012 we won 16% of the vote and took a beating. This year we look as if we will end up with just under 16% of the vote.
We are still on the rocks and to get off them Tim needs good pilots in the wheelhouse. He will find them where those great results were recorded and among the people whose strategies they followed.
The voyage back is going to be a very long and dangerous one so I hope Tim will surround himself with the Party’s best navigators and proven winners for the storms ahead.
@ David,
Maybe so. I continued to vote Liberal Democrat in local elections, for my MEP and now the PCC, despite not voting Liberal Democrat in the 2015 GE.
The party has had some bruising lessons and there is plenty of time to turn things round before the next GE. Hope springs eternal.
GOOD DAY TO BURY BAD NEWS (for the Tories)
Academy U Turn 10 minutes ago… U turn if you want to – the lady’s not for continuing.
“Government climbdown over forced academies plan in England” BBC NEWS
@David
I remember that before giving the prediction the BBC used to say it is a bit of fun. I also remember when discussing by-election results it would give us a massive majority. I therefore did understand that it didn’t mean if a general election had been held we would have won 19 seats, but the direction of travel is what I was trying to point out.
Those who read these threads will remember Silvio’s prediction that we would be wiped out in Sheffield and Liverpool. Not so, Silvio !
Indeed, Hugh p.
To remind you of what I responded to one of Silvio’s repetitive (and now confirmed massively wrong) postings 3 days ago:
@SILVIO
“the Lib Dems are fighting tooth and nail for 4th 5th place”
You keep saying this, but in doing so only display your ignorance.
Who exactly is it that you think has consistently come a good third in local elections in recent years?
For example in the 2015 local elections in England the Lib Dems won over three times as many seats as the 4th placed party – see http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2015/results/councils
In the 2014 local elections in England the Lib Dems “only” won two and and half times as many seats as the 4th placed party – see http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/events/vote2014/england-council-election-results
And there is a realistic hope that we will have better results in 2016 that we did in 2014 or 2015. In my own area of Southport we have high hopes that, for the first time ever, we will achieve 1st place in all 7 wards.”
And what about this year? When completed it looks almost certain that we will end up with MORE THAN five times as many seats as the 4th placed party.
And BTW, Yes, we did indeed win all 7 wards in Southport for the first time EVER. See https://www.libdemvoice.org/lib-dems-win-every-council-seat-in-southport-for-the-first-time-since-1858-50410.html
In defence of SILVIO (https://www.libdemvoice.org/vote-labour-in-the-local-elections-if-you-do-not-care-about-your-community-50360.html#comment-401843), he/she actually wrote, “London Scotland Wales the big city areas the Lib Dems are fighting tooth and nail for 4th 5th place”.
I don’t know if Southport counts as a “big city area”, and Sheffield & Liverpool are certainly not the only two in the UK. But in Scotland and Wales the Lib Dems were 5th, in London Lib Dems are looking at 4th in the Mayoral election and 5th in the Assembly. 12 months after last year’s hammering, this does not yet look like a Lib Dem fightback.
Well…. it could have been better……… but it could of been a darn sight worse . Most Lib Dems know its going to be a long march back…… but every journey starts with a single step…… and that step has now been taken.
@ Simon Shaw
Well done. Congratulations.
Ahem. just to record that I regained the seat I lost to Labour in Gateshead in 2012, by 20 votes and in nearby Sunderland we have a brand new councillor after being nil for some time. sadly we lost wo seats in Newcastle.
@David Raw
Thanks. Appreciated.
@Peter Watson
Perhaps you should refer also to SILVIO’s post very similar post of 24th April https://www.libdemvoice.org/after-a-year-of-tory-rule-we-have-the-chance-to-show-our-disapproval-50257.html.
There he said “Fighting tooth and nail for 4th place in most parts of the country. London and Scotland will be a battering and wipeout in Sheffield Liverpool etc etc.”
As SILVIO (for some strange reason) never responds to my “corrections” perhaps you can help with this question.
Bearing in mind that the Lib Dems are very safely the 3rd party in local councils and
– In 2014 won two and and half times as many seats as the 4th placed party
– In 2015 won over three times as many seats as the 4th placed party
– In 2016 look likely to win over five times as many seats as the 4th placed party
would you agree that someone who says that the Lib Dems are “fighting tooth and nail for 4th place in most parts of the country” clearly doesn’t know the first thing about politics?
Incidentally, although I wouldn’t describe Southport as a “big city area” it is around a third of the Merseyside Metropolitan Borough of Sefton. In Sefton MBC as a whole the Lib Dems didn’t come “4th or 5th”, we came 2nd in terms of votes and number of seats.
In the adjoining Merseyside Metropolitan Borough of Knowsley (to the East), the Lib Dems didn’t come “4th or 5th”, we came 2nd in terms of votes and number of seats.
And In the adjoining Liverpool City Council (to the South), the Lib Dems didn’t come “4th or 5th”, we came 2nd in terms of votes and number of seats.
The most telling thing about the election results is no one is even mentioning the Lib Dems. A casual observer would be forgiven for wondering if the Lib Dems contested any if these elections.
The lesson still hasn’t been learned. Orange book economic liberalism just looks like Tory lite. Social liberalism can all too often seem a bit worthy out of touch with most people’s everyday lives.
There’s a big hole in British politics where a truly progressive sicial democratic party ought to be. Fill that hole.
@Simon Shaw (congratulations by the way)
Sorry I missed SILVIO’s parallel post where he/she name-checked Liverpool & Sheffield.
“– In 2014 won two and and half times as many seats as the 4th placed party
– In 2015 won over three times as many seats as the 4th placed party
– In 2016 look likely to win over five times as many seats as the 4th placed party”
In 2014 local elections, Lib Dems polled about 3/4 as many votes as that 4th placed party (UKIP) and finished 5th in European elections on the same day. I can’t see a vote share for 2015 – but Lib Dems polled a long way behind UKIP in the general election on the same day: was the local election vote share greatly different? How did this week’s vote share compare with UKIP’s?
Perhaps Lib Dems should stop campaigning to get rid of first-past-the-post since it does them more favours than the other minor parties!
Hopefully there are lessons that can be learnt from success in Southport and disappointment in Stockport.
But we are 12 months on from a disastrous general election. Voters can see what a real Tory government looks like compared to the ersatz one of 2010-15. Labour under Corbyn are vilified relentlessly in the media (including the BBC), particularly over the last few days. But the Lib Dems have made little, if any, progress. Apparently Lib Dems lost 336 seats in the corresponding elections in 2012 and with a few left to declare have so far this week regained 39. The party is 5th in London, 5th in Wales, 5th in Scotland. One can only hope that the worst is over and that the only way is up, but the tone on this site gives the impression that the party is satisfied with the outcome this week. What is the plan to become the third party in England again (other than waiting for UKIP to evaporate after the referendum)? How will the party recover in Wales? How will it grow in the political landscape of Scotland? I don’t see any sense of direction in the party at the moment.
The answer is to be the UK wide voice of reform and common sense , of ideas that work with compassion that means something .The best of the before , during and after coalition approach .
We should be exactly what this party always was and is .A pragmatic and principled one. Yes the public think we sold out , I say instead of agreeing and holding our heads in shame , we show them just how we are , even in opposition , in the Commons , in the Lords , and other legislative forums , making a difference .Climbdown after climbdown by the government, we are part of why .
We can win the arguments even when not winning all the elections !
The morning after the night before the night before, it would be a good idea to read the independently minded contribution from Peter Watson above.
How were the results? Last week Dr Robert Ford, a research fellow in politics at the University of Manchester, published in the Guardian a list of hypothetical results across Scotland, Wales, London and the locals with a range of results for the Lib Dems which he ranged from Awful, throught Bad, Average, Good to Excellent. They seemed a fair benchmark.
How did we do against the Ford marking scheme? Scotland Average. Wales Average, London Bad, Locals Average.
To be satisfied with these results would be foolish and to ignore the fact that the national elections show our core at just a squeak over 5%, and the locals that our strength and capacity to become meaningful players rests on a small number of great campaigning teams spread almost randomly across the UK and vulnerable to burn out problems in the near to medium term.
This way irrelevance lies.
Where to, then?
First do not listen to the appeal to common sense from Lorenzo above. Reform, yes. Compassion yes; but change never came from ‘common sense’. Common sense is a social construction of the dominant over the dominated. It is the appeal of ‘austerity’ and of today’s elites.
Political change never came from that. Which has been the Party’s difficulty over the last decade. People running things who never understood why we built such a strong party from 1979 to 2005.
Instead, I recommend everyone in the Party watches the interview that Lord Faulkner gave on Newsnight last night, 33 mins 48 seconds into this podcast http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b079vm1b/newsnight-06052016
Two things are required: and a Party voicing and a leader representing those from outside of the existing meritocracy/elite. As Michael Young warned over half a century ago, a meritocracy is a dangerous thing, not a good thing. The dominance and policy set of the meritocracy from Cameron, through Clegg to Umunna is actually very narrow and illiberal, and well represented by the Conservatives and Blairites. It is paternalistic and authoritarian – the new Squirarchy.
It has been in charge of the UK since 1990 and has failed. The good thing is that we have a leader from outside that elite and most of our activists are from outside it too. They just have to take back control of the Party as they did in the 1970s and 80s.
Second, we need to champion an economic policy that will deliver for those outside of the elite and to convince the public to trust that policy. This is a double problem, but essential to our and our countries’ recoveries. Conservatives throughout all parties are guardians of a policy that has failed in the run up to the Great Recession and in the failure to bring us out of ‘The New Normal’.
We have nothing to lose by formulating such a new economic policy and campaigning for it. It is a task similar to the task driven by Lloyd George and Maynard Keynes in the 1920s and 1930s. But the solution is different. So it can be done. And it is worth doing.
Of course it’s blindingly obvious that the Lib Dems need distinctiveness. Equally obvious is the party needs to get noticed.
Back in the day the Liberals may not have had big numbers but they did have big personalities. Where are the likes of David Penhalligan, John Pardo and Charlie Kennedy now?
LDV is like Pravda this morning – tractor production has exceeded quota in the Southport, Eastleigh and Watford factories whilst omitting to mention tractor production is down overall on 2012, which itself was a massive reduction on 2008. Mark Pack reports vote share down a further 1% on what was a calamitous result 4 years ago – while Tim points to my home town of Cambridge for gains where there were none (+2/-2). London we’re down to a single Assembly person (and behind Greens on Mayor), similarly Welsh Assembly. There have SOME good results but overall if this is a fight back I’d hate to see what a meltdown looks like
Bill le Breton 7th May ’16 – 7:11am makes good points. Common sense is an average of existing thinking. The Law Lords (now in the Supreme Court) said it is “a starting point”.
Martin Pierce 7th May ’16 – 8:02am Translate into English please. “Pravda” means “The Truth” according to the official newspaper of the Soviet Communist Party. These figures are true and demonstrate what can be done.
This number chrunching and entrail reading goes with the territory of political activism. I prefer stronger meat but some people really get off on it. Don’t pee on their fire.
Bill le Breton
How about seeing ,party and country , throughout , if”no to common sense ” would be successful ?!
Sometimes I think people are just contrary for fun !
I think we should congratulate Tim on holding things together at an incredibly difficult time. To be honest, without his energy and positivity, and that of candidates around the country, we might not have been looking at even the small gains we have had overall.
But as I wrote in a piece a while back on LDV, the fightback needs to be seen to be for the many not just the few. We have heard a lot from the Lib Dems about the legalisation of cannabis (in my view a false priority) and much about resettling unaccompanied children (very rightly), but does the person in the street know what our approach is to the economy (and is it the right approach?), the environment, education, transport, foreign affairs, health and social care (please let’s advocate for a dedicated 5p rise in tax to make sure we have the resources the NHS and care system needs)….etc!
There is also the media battle to be won with, unfortunately, hype and sensationalism all too often win out over reasoned debate.
But as we have seen with Saddiq Khan’s Mayoral victory in London, and Ruth Davidson’s progress in Scotland, people will vote for the party/person who they really believe cares the most about their essential interests and needs – and can deliver on those things. (Why the Lib Dems didn’t do a bit better in London I don’t understand because I thought Caroline Pidgeon ran a great campaign).
Judy makes an important point, “does the person in the street know what our approach is to the economy (and is it the right approach?),” No and no is my answer.
As Lord Faulkner identified in his Newsnight inetrview on Friday there are two extremely forceful influences on politics today – the first new or relatively recent, the second perennial:
The first is a rejection of the Westminster Village Elite (not just the political elite but the media, the civil service, the business establishment, the judiciary etc. ) which the SNP have tapped into, but which no-one sound of the border has been able to exploit. This is our natural territory – regrettably we personified the opposite in 2010 -15, but now have the best possible leader to tap into that. We have to be Preston not Putney.
The second is the economy. People have to have knowledge of and confidence in your economic policy. Ours is still associated with and almost indistinguishable from Tory policy. Here again between 2010 and 2015 we pursued an accelerated deficit reduction path (that led to its opposite). Our policy still has one foot in the worship of austerity and the second foot in a naive view of Keynes.
Aggregate demand, that is the increase in the nominal value of GDP in the UK, has stalled. What jobs have been created over the last few years are low wage, low skilled and less productive. No Liberal should be content with such a state of affairs. Every Liberal should be calling for an increase in aggregate demand.
One commentator said that such a commitment was dangerously left wing. No, it is supremely Liberal to abhor wasted life chances and to want to use the power of the state to increase opportunities for all, rather than to rely on non-intervention and an invisible hand to deliver that.
@Lorenzo – Richard has answered for me.
@Bill le Breton
“This is our natural territory – regrettably we personified the opposite in 2010 -15 …”
Completely agree. Having campaigned so sincerely and successfully on the platform of “a new kind of politics” with an independent leftish-rightish-centrist (“liberal”?) approach, the leadership seemed to throw it all away. The party appeared to transform from “none of the above” to “one of the above”.
” … but now have the best possible leader to tap into that.”
Yes, but … Tim Farron looked like the best hope, as a popular down-to-earth figure who was well-known but not associated with Coalition Government (especially tuition fees), but the more time that passes, the more he looks like a continuity leader and the less likely it appears that the public impression of the party will change. Even this week’s successes risk reinforcing a misleading (I hope!) stereotype that Lib Dems are the party for potholes, pavements and privet hedges but not the big stuff.
@ Peter. Exactly. We need to come across as the party of the “big stuff” and that’s going to take an in-depth knowledge of different policy areas; a real concern about reducing inequality – especially in marginalised groups; practical solutions to local and national transport problems; strong industrial and regional policies; and confronting the fact that we need to pay more tax if we want decent health and care services. There’s no way round it.
Our last manifesto had a lot of good policies along these lines, but somehow it all got drowned out by the media’s focus on our tuition fees policy reversal.
We need to re-establish our credibility on the things that really matter to people like healthcare (not just mental health), jobs, a diversity of housing solutions, being able to afford to get to work and getting high quality jobs back into the regions so London doesn’t suck in all the wealth and jobs.