Top of the Blogs: The Lib Dem Golden Dozen #482

Welcome to the Golden Dozen, and our xxxth weekly round-up from the Lib Dem blogosphere … Featuring the five most popular stories beyond Lib Dem Voice according to click-throughs from the Aggregator (-, 2017), together with a hand-picked seven you might otherwise have missed.

Don’t forget: you can sign up to receive the Golden Dozen direct to your email inbox — just click here — ensuring you never miss out on the best of Lib Dem blogging.

As ever, let’s start with the most popular post, and work our way down:

1. Here’s my 2017 General Election prediction by Nick Tyrone  on NickTyrone.com.
Not exactly over-brimming with optimism from a Lib Dem perspective – but I would like some more answers on Scotland.

2. Everyone is a winner but UKIP and the Greens in this week’s one council by-election by Mark Pack on Mark Pack.
What happened this week?

3. Paul Keetch has died by Jonathan Calder on Liberal England.
Jonathan’s article on the passing of the former Lib Dem MP for Hereford.

4. Chief Executive of Liverpool arrested and and questioned over LDL and OCL scandal by Richard Kemp on But what does Richard Kemp think?
Richard calls for the resignation of the Mayor.

5. Election notebook #12 by Stephen Tall on Stephen Tall.
Stephen on Manchester, polls and Hugo Rifkind’s poisonous Times article.

And now to the seven blog-posts that come highly recommended, regardless of the number of Aggregator click-throughs they attracted. To nominate a Lib Dem blog article published in the past seven days – your own, or someone else’s, all you have to do is drop a line to [email protected] You can also contact us via Twitter, where we’re @libdemvoice

6. There but for the grace of God by Jennie Rigg on Kaatu, verata, necktie.
A heartfelt and defiant reaction to the Manchester attack.

7. Remainers’ Diary Day 246 by Josephine Hayes on Facebook.
A good rebuttal of the “a big majority will strengthen my hand” nonsense. “As has been repeatedly pointed out, increasing the size of the Tories’ majority will make no difference to the UK’s bargaining position at all. It can’t, any more than changing the crew on the Titanic would have made any difference when the course was still set for a crash into an iceberg at full speed.”

8. Brexit: Handy doorstep guide for canvassers by Peter Wrigley on Keynesian Liberal.
. (Submitted by xxx.)

9. The rise of authenticity and what it means by David Boyle on The Real Blog.
A post inspired by his wife’s designs.

10. Some thoughts on the Manchester tragedy by Andrew Page on A Scottish Liberal.
Andrew’s analysis of the attack

11. 2017 General Election Diary Day 38: 3 scenarios in search of an election by Nick Barlow on What you can get away with.
Which, if any, could be a parallel with the current one?

12. What is the meaning of Theresa May’s wobble? by Matthew Green on A Thinking Liberal.
A post written before Manchester and concluded afterwards. Is the Dementia Tax problem more about May’s lack of consultation with her own side?

And that’s it for another week. Happy blogging ‘n’ reading ‘n’ nominating.

Featured? Add this to your blog post!
Featured on Liberal Democrat Voice
<a href="https://www.libdemvoice.org/top-of-the-blogs-the-lib-dem-golden-dozen-482-54456.html"><img src="https://www.libdemvoice.org/images/golden-dozen.png" width="200" height="57" alt="Featured on Liberal Democrat Voice" title="Featured on Liberal Democrat Voice" /></a>

* Caron Lindsay is Editor of Liberal Democrat Voice and blogs at Caron's Musings

Read more by .
This entry was posted in Best of the blogs.
Advert

23 Comments

  • Richard Underhill 28th May '17 - 9:51pm

    If it is correct that Peter Mandelson’s objective in the 2010 general election was to minimise the losses of Gordon Brown’s Labour Party then Mandelson or Brown should say so because it is being argued that the current Labour leadership is following the same strategy. Former MP Tony Benn used to refer to 1945 as the policy to follow, but paying for that was difficult. One of the most brilliant economists who have ever lived, John Maynard Keynes, a Liberal, exhausted himself trying to obtain funding from USA, succeeded and died. The IFS have been critical.
    The opinion poll in the Sunday Times puts the Tories, or whatever they call themselves nowadays, at 43%, which is enough to give them an overall majority in the Commons, despite the nervous wobble caused by Theresa May’s U-turn.
    “You turn if you want to, the lady’s not for turning” said Maggie May.
    It follows that Tim Farron’s analysis that the Tories will get an overall majority and we are providing a different, logical analysis is still correct.
    Arguing that that Jeremy Corbyn could be the next PM is farcical and absurd. Defence Secretary Michael Fallon (Conservative, Sevenoaks) is saying that, which leaves people wondering about the judgement of someone with such an important job.

  • Advice from a Labour member- I supported you in Richmond Park and wanted Labour to stand down- now that is settled……

    Get all of your resources into Richmond Park, Twickenham, Sutton and Cheam, Kingston , Lewis, Eastbourne, Yeoville, Thornberry and Yate, Torbay…and two seats in Scotland….thank me later.

    Stop helping the Tories attack my leader……he is great.

    Wish you all the best in these seats….fight the Tories and WIN.

  • Eugene, and what are you doing about the Labour campaigns against the Lib Dems in Southport, Leeds NW, Sheffield Hallam, North Norfolk, Carshalton and Wallington, Ceredigion, Westmorland and Lonsdale and probably O&S?

  • Peter Martin 29th May '17 - 11:29am

    “One of the most brilliant economists who have ever lived, John Maynard Keynes, a Liberal…..”

    Right. It’s pity that the “Orange Book” Liberals don’t share this view.

    Raising VAT to 20% in the middle of the worst recession since the Great Depression, is just about as stupidly neo-liberal as it is possible to be! Any true Keynesian would have resigned from Government over that and argued that the Lib Dems resign from the Coalition too!

  • Labour’s campaign in Eastbourne simply attacks Liberal Democrats. A Labour leaflet I saw on Saturday was mainly composed of a vicious attack on us and upon Stephen Lloyd, our candidate. There was no mention of the Conservatives. Progressive Alliance?

  • nvelope2003 29th May '17 - 3:15pm

    The Labour Party rejected any Progressive Alliance and has always rejected deals with other parties, something the Liberal Democrats would have been well advised to follow in view of what has happened whenever they failed to do so. Here the Greens and Labour are still banging on about the coalition, even those who want people to vote Liberal Democrat to keep the Conservatives out. It is not looking good.

  • Peter Martin 29th May '17 - 4:31pm

    “The Labour Party rejected any Progressive Alliance and has always rejected deals with other parties, something the Liberal Democrats would have been well advised to follow in view of what has happened whenever they failed to do so”

    The Labour Party has not always rejected deals but usually it does. We have to distinguish between the Labour Party , nationally, and its supporters and members locally. The Labour vote in Richmond largely went to the Lib Dems just recently for example.

    So given the right circumstances, a Lib Dem candidate can beat a Tory with unofficial Labour support. When there’s a high degree of tactical voting in other words. There does need to be some reciprocation though. Does anyone think that really happens? Or does the Lib Dem vote split 50:50 between Labour and Tory when Lib Dems do their own tactical voting?

  • Peter Martin 29th May '17 - 4:41pm

    @nvelope2003

    ” Here the Greens and Labour are still banging on about the coalition”

    There’s been a fair bit of “banging on” about that on LibDemVoice too! The coalition is only two years ago. Nick Clegg is still prominent in the party. Orange Book thinking is prevalent too.

    I’d say it might take closer to two decades than two years for you to be completely forgiven for propping up Cameron and Osborne as you did. It would have been better for you and better for the country to have let them run with a minority government for a couple of years then had fresh elections.

  • @ Eugene
    I think it is sweet of you to give us advice, but I don’t think you understand us, where is the evidence that we should be restricting our resources to those 10 seats?

    I agree we should be targeting Eastbourne, Lewes, Thornbury & Yate, Twickenham, Kingston & Surbiton, Sutton & Cheam and Torbay and of course I would add the nine seats we hold.

    I think St Ives might be a better seat to target than Yeovil, but I would target both.

    But I also think we should be targeting Cambridge, Bath, Bermondsey & Old Southwark, Colchester, Cheadle, Cheltenham, Portsmouth South, Brecon & Radnorshire, Cardiff Central, Dunbartonshire East, Edinburgh West, Fife North East, Ross, Skye & Lochaber, North Devon and Wells.

  • paul barker 29th May '17 - 6:31pm

    @ Michael BG, I have no idea how many seats we will get but a Target list of 34 (if I got that right) sounds like way too many to me. Right now the Betting Markets are suggesting that we will get around 15 Seats, I would be very happy with that but it seems a bit optimistic.
    Our Polling average seems to have levelled out at 8%, the same as we got in 2015 but with much higher Tory figures than 2 Years ago ( currently up by 7%) we might reasonably expect fewer than 8 MPs unless we focus on fewer Seats.
    Its quite possible that the Polls are underestimating our support but we cant rely on that.

  • Paul Barker, yeah think you are right, I still reckon between 3-5 only.

  • Alex Macfie 29th May '17 - 8:18pm

    paul barker, theakes: You are assuming uniform national swing, which I don’t think is applicable. Tory rise is likely due to straight Tory-Labour switching by small-c conservative working-class traditional Labour voters mostly in seats we never had a chance of winning anyway. Our task in our target seats is to ensure that anti-Tory voters know that we are the alternative to the Tories, or in the few seats that are Lab-LibDem contests, that we are a more effective opposition than Labour.

  • Alex Macfie 29th May '17 - 8:18pm

    I mean Labour-Tory switching, of course!

  • Nick Collins 29th May '17 - 8:34pm

    @ Michael BG & paul barker With nine campaigning days left, don’t you think it’s a little late to be discussing which seats, or how many, to target?

  • @Eugene “Get all of your resources into Richmond Park, Twickenham, Sutton and Cheam, Kingston , Lewis, Eastbourne, Yeoville, Thornberry and Yate, Torbay…and two seats in Scotland….thank me later.”

    If the party want to run a campaign in 10 650th’s of the country instead of the entire country they will have to be careful not to give ten different messages playing to ten different audiences, because that was partly how a party with a solid 50+ seats and 20%+ of the votes ended up needing rebuilt. Don’t do that again.

  • paul barker 29th May '17 - 9:00pm

    Well, I am really glad that I dont have to take the decisions about Targeting, get it wrong either way & we could lose good MPs who could have won. The Party consensus seems to be that we should err on the side of pessimism & I agree with that.
    I am not even going to attempt to predict Seat numbers, in the long term I beleive Vote share matters more anyway.

  • Richard Underhill 29th May '17 - 9:16pm

    We must be historically accurate. There was a Labour – Lib Dem coalition in the Scottish parliament, at the end of which Scottish Labour accepted STV for local elections.

  • Alex Macfie 29th May '17 - 9:45pm

    paul barker: But in the short term, and especially in the NOW, number of seats is what matters most. Even if our vote share flatlines, if we double our seats through targeting we will be seen as successful.

  • @ Paul Barker
    I think it is 33 seats. The total number is an interesting question. In 2010 we won 57 seats and lost 13. Therefore it seems safe to assume we targeted 70 seats. According to Wikipedia in 2010 we had 65,038 members. We have been told we have more than 100,000 members now. It seems logical to me that we should be able to target at least 57 seats in this general election because our manpower is over 50% greater than in 2010. (I think it is odd that I am more optimistic than you now! 🙂 ) We have to target more seats than we will win.

    @ Alex Macfie
    I also do not believe in an uniform swing across all seats.

    @ Nick Collins
    “With nine campaigning days left, don’t you think it’s a little late to be discussing which seats, or how many, to target?”

    Hopefully there was a better informed discussion yesterday on which seats to drop or add to the tear 1 seats, because we are now entering the final week for canvassing

  • Thanks for the replies.
    LibDems are very successful in by-elections because you FOCUS your resources. Your track record is astonishing. It all falls to bits when all seats are up for election.
    Make sure you get these 10 to 15 Tory seats…that cuts their majority by thirty.

    So focus.

    I think the citizens of our country are asking you to do it.

  • @Paul Barker ” I beleive Vote share matters more anyway.”

    I think this is what the party has done by pushing for a second referendum, increased its national share of the vote and decreased its seats. This is because lib dem votes are more concentrated than leave vs remain support. The vote was 52/48 but the most leave place is only about 75/25.

    If 25% of your 2015 voters were leave voters switching to conservative because of the second referendum you lose 2% nationally and 10% in an area where the party won the seat with 40% of the vote. If 3% come across to the party nationally as a result of the 2nd referendum policy the national vote share is then 9% but 33% where it was previously 40%.

    This is what I think is happening, not long until I find out for sure though.

  • @Eugene: “LibDems are very successful in by-elections because you FOCUS your resources. Your track record is astonishing. It all falls to bits when all seats are up for election.”

    Why do you think this is, I’m pretty certain I know the answer to that, but I’d like to hear your thoughts first if you would be so kind?

  • Nick Collins 31st May '17 - 4:41pm

    The front page of “The Times” today reports a Yougov prediction one feature of which is ten LibDem seats. Will anyone promise to eat their hat on 10 June?

Post a Comment

Lib Dem Voice welcomes comments from everyone but we ask you to be polite, to be on topic and to be who you say you are. You can read our comments policy in full here. Please respect it and all readers of the site.

If you are a member of the party, you can have the Lib Dem Logo appear next to your comments to show this. You must be registered for our forum and can then login on this public site with the same username and password.

To have your photo next to your comment please signup your email address with Gravatar.

Your email is never published. Required fields are marked *

*
*
Please complete the name of this site, Liberal Democrat ...?

Advert



Recent Comments

  • User Avatarfrankie 16th Dec - 4:14pm
    Gordon, The problem Jackie has is the constitutional deficit actually grows if we follow the Norway path. Imposing rules made by others with no input...
  • User AvatarGordon 16th Dec - 3:53pm
    LJP – I was thinking only of the way the negotiations have gone so far with surrenders at each point by Davis & Co. but...
  • User AvatarNick Collins 16th Dec - 3:53pm
    Merry Christmas, Tony. I'm sorry that you have lost the ability to distinguish telling it as it is from sarcasm.
  • User AvatarChris Lewcock 16th Dec - 3:41pm
    Great that this item has been put up on LDV. Thanks Duncan. However, I do wonder if Members should have to depend on occasional (inevitably?...
  • User AvatarMichael BG 16th Dec - 3:41pm
    @ Katharine Pindar I am sorry that I didn’t express myself clearer. My point was that if the LVT is rolled up to be paid...
  • User AvatarCiaran Smith 16th Dec - 3:13pm
    As an atheist, I was disheartened to see the abuse Tim Farron got during the election campaign for his views. Whilst I disagree with his...