This weekend, the party will be debating the F14 motion “The UK’s Response to Trump” at conference.
Recent statements by our party and the motion itself pretty much encapsulate the UK public’s feeling about the Trumpist revolution in the United States. The Lib Dems, as an opposition party, can more easily be the voice of reality, saying what the UK government dares not to say as it seeks in vain to seek some shred of common ground with Washington, especially over the future of Ukraine.
The reason for Trump’s partiality towards Putin is simply that the business opportunities are too tempting for making money for his family, associates and MAGA agenda.
Here Trump’s model is a reflection of Putin’s, with his entourage of compliant oligarchs. The US context however makes Trump’s oligarchs not quite as beholden to him, having mostly made their own money rather than looted it.
Trump’s long business relations with Russia are well-documented. That they are alive and well was recently reinforced by the reported presence of long time Trump associate Russian oligarch Dmitry Rybolovlev acting as a go-between at the US-Russia talks in Saudi Arabia.
From Trump’s remarks that Putin and he are “already talking about…dividing up certain assets” in Ukraine, the so-called negotiation with Putin about Ukraine seems increasingly about shamelessly taking advantage of a devastated and weakened country to arrange a division of spoils.
True to form, Trump is already attempting to foist his specific list of companies on Ukraine as part of any mineral deal.
Will the end deal for Western Ukraine thanks to these manoeuvres be its economic exploitation by the United States whilst returning it to Russia‘s sphere of influence if Putin’s disinformation activities turn Ukraine’s eventual Presidential and parliamentary elections towards his acolytes?
That the United States has changed and that it can be somehow brought back to its senses is delusional for as long as the far-right remain in power there, which may well be for a very long time.
Trump does not have the interests of Ukraine at heart at all. What should the UK and Europe do?
- Give the wherewithal for Ukraine to keep on fighting. US military assistance and intelligence are confirmed to have been restored to Ukraine but this may be temporary. Ukraine is taking tens of thousands of casualties to protect Europe. Ceasefire or not, continued armament and ammunition supply by Europe to maximum industrial capacity is essential.
- Europe needs to learn from Ukraine how to conduct effective cyber warfare, including automating our cyber defences against the deluge of Russian disinformation which has now infiltrated the West’s AI models.
- Europe must ensure no deal can be reached without the true consent of Ukraine. It must be a deal which protects Europe’s security. Lines of communication need to be kept open with the Trump administration (without being obsequious about it). Manoeuvres by Trump to blame Zelensky for refusing a ceasefire and weaken Ukraine’s ability to fight must continue to be countered. The UK and France’s work towards creating a “Coalition of the Willing” will help make it additionally complicated for Trump to go it alone with Putin. We don’t want a repeat of Afghanistan, where the Afghan government and Europe were presented with a fait accompli by the United States which fatally undermined the security of the country.
- Russia’s frozen assets in European hands must be confiscated once and for all to take them off the table, so Trump cannot try to give them back to Russia as yet another concession.
- Finally, there is no time to waste on increasing the size and effectiveness of our “hollowed-out” UK armed forces. The UK government cannot wait until 2027 to increase the defence budget to a mere 2.5% of GDP. It must do so immediately and gain cross-party agreement on how to go higher. Or do we really think Putin will demobilise 650,000 troops and put his war economy on hold to give us a breather?
* George Cunningham is an elected member of the Federal International Relations Committee and on the executives of Lib Dems Friend of the Armed Forces and Liberal International British Group. Email: [email protected] Social media: @gfcunningham.bsky.social Twitter/X: @GFCunningham
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16 Comments
Our fight with Russia is not just about defending Ukraine – it is about defending the rules based international order that ensures our economic as well as military security.
Suggesting that the West should illegally seize steal) Russia’s frozen assets completely undermines our official position of fighting to protect the rules based order.
Well, we could be confrontational…
I’m sure we could sign a deal with Ukraine concerning ports and land that is similar to the one we signed over Hong Kong, making these parts of the Ukraine UK territory…
We also need to call the government out and for it stop awarding IT contracts to the likes of Microsoft, Amazon. (Currently much of the UK government IT relies on the good will of the US to function, just like everyone’s Microsoft, Apple and Google email accounts…)
Additonally, we really need to sign contracts for the SAAB Grippen to replace the inferior F35…
Both of these can be justified as doing as requested by Trump and contributing more to our own security.
So the question is: just how far out of the box do we wish to think.
Fast moving events in the geopolitical landscape make the task of political responsiveness fraught with dangers. Fears of overreaction versus taking too timid a step. Our Harrogate conference next week gives us as liberals a precious opportunity to position ourselves as the correct balance of progressive values, responsible patriotism and practical policy. Defence of the realm is a serious obligation as is our status as some of the “adults in the room”. We owe our values and voters that.
Division of spoils indeed. And a ruthless one to be. As to increasing the size of the British Armed Forces and it’s technological abilities, now a matter of urgency – so as to create a true deterrent.
‘Ukraine is taking tens of thousands of casualties to protect Europe’…
Ukraine is protecting itself. Western European capitals are not under threat from the Russian army. And neither are their territorial borders.
This conflict in the Donbas has entered it’s eleventh year. If a ceasefire holds – it will look increasing like that’s where the territories will remain for the foreseeable.
Michael Wolff in his second Trump biography claimed that Trump’s business interests formed part of a “semi-criminal enterprise.” He quoted the Trump confidante Steve Bannon as responding: “I think we can drop the semi part.” Steve Bannon Thinks President’s Business Career Is Criminal Enterprise
The first two months of this second term do appear to comport with what might be expected if a semi-criminal enterprise grabbed the reins of power in the USA. The Trump administration is beginning to show signs of imitating the kleptocracy that has engulfed Russia under Putin.
This is a much darker US administation than anything we have seen in the past with little relation to the traditional values of Conservative Republicanism. I think UK relations with the USA have to take that reality into account. The British government will need to remain extremely cautious in its dealings with America as long as as the far-right remain in power there.
Good article.
Trump is an inherently dictatorial leader. He is destroying American democracy, and in particular the rule of law. We should implacably oppose his international adventurism, his blatant corruption, his disregard for a rules based international system, and his abusive behaviour towards allies.
Putin is a dictator, and a brutal and murderous one, responsible for at least 15,000 civilian deaths, mostly women and children. He is a rapacious war criminal whose end must be a jail in The Hague or in a ditch with a bullet in the head.
We should have as little to do with either of them as possible, and we must NOT reward Putin with territorial concessions in return for a fake peace deal which he will not respect. The Russian economy cannot sustain the conflict much longer.
This is a time for the Lib Dems to be on the right side of history.
Many good points in the article. But Britain and France, and whether it involves providing more weapons or seizing assets, should make a greater effort to bring the rest of Europe on board before going it alone. Both Putin and Trump apply a ‘divide to rule’ approach to weaken their enemies. A united Europe would stand a better chance against an economically and militarily weakened Russia and a US that has lost its way than a couple of brave countries taking on the full burden. The present scenario also emphasises the need for the UK to rejoin the EU with the minimum of delay.
Thank you for all your great comments to my article which seem largely in agreement as to the reality of what is really going on and the actions we must take. In answer to Mike, EU Foreign Policy Chief Kaja Kallas’ meeting with Foreign Secretary David Lammy and Defence Secretary John Healey in London a few days ago included talks to progress how Europe ensures it has the right “legal and financial cover” to potentially seize billions in Russian assets. On the other hand, I beg to disagree with Craig that somehow Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine does not impact on the rest of Europe – the history of 1938-39 leading up to WW2 should put that argument to rest. Rest assured, Colin, the UK and France are doing their level best to put together a Coalition of the Willing , although the armed forces of many European countries have been hollowed out, making it a real challenge in Ukraine without a US so-called backstop (which is unlikely).
What are these ‘Rules based international order’ ? . Those in Gaza must be wondering who and what they relate to.
All this rhetoric and geo political tub thumping in regards to the US government, seems to have liberals jumping up and down like it’s the Devil in reincarnation. For the first time in years we have a chance of a ceasefire – surely that can only be a positive development.
With all this anti Trump / Vance voices from home and abroad, why are the Democrats polling so low ?
Cesasefire? Are you kidding, Craig? The Russians have continued attacks on Ukraine energy infrastructure overnight.
LDs oppose continuing Israel’s attacks on Gaza and Russia’s attack on Russia.
Do you find that so complicated?
Putin is interested in conquest, not peace.
Chris; What I’m struggling with is a UK parliamentary party in opposition’s foreign policy doesn’t constitute the ‘rules based international order’ . I welcome the ceasefire negotiations that the US administration has instigated, it gives a platform to build on.
As for so many articles of late deriding Trump & Vance it needs to be reminded that the Democrats are polling poorly .
@Craig Levene: Not sure what you mean by the first sentence at 19th Mar ’25 – 3:39pm. As an opposition party, we don’t make any rules, either domestic or international, but we have every right (indeed duty) to hold to the fire those who do make the rules or are supposed to abide by them.
The Trump administration’s “ceasefire negotiations” are roughly on a par with Chamberlain’s “peace talks” in 1938. No lasting peace is possible from such an approach. Chunchill subsequently voided the Munich agreement.
US poll ratings are not our concern. As a UK opposition party, Lib Dems do not have to defer to a foreign administration that we oppose, however popular domestically it may be and however unpopular its internal opposition. We speak to and for UK voters not US voters. And most UK voters oppose Trump and support Ukraine. Most US voters don’t even know who the UK Lib Dems are.
Alex; I was responding to Mike’s comment .
‘Our fight with Russia is not just about defending Ukraine – it is about defending the rules based international order’ I legitimately asked what exactly is that. Any moral high ground western liberal democracies once enjoyed have evaporated in the rubble of Gaza.
I welcome Trump/ Vance initiative to bring about a ceasefire. To continue the line of whatever it takes & 100 year packs is sheer folly – it bares no resemblance of what the situation on the ground is – 3 years into Ukraine’s spring offensive. As for Trump – he’s mentioned over twelve times in the article & was merely pointing out despite all the outrage and the accusations – the Democrats have little to offer.
@Craig Levene “the [US] Democrats have little to offer” but they’re not in government. We are concerned with the present US administration, the people in government, as they are the ones whose actions have worldwide consequences. What the US opposition may or may not have to offer there is beside the point. As they’re not in government they can’t do anything.
I don’t get your point about Gaza: is it that Lib Dems can’t say anything about Ukraine because liberal democracies have failed to stop the violence in Gaza? But Lib Dems oppose that as well, and again as we are not in government we cannot be held responsible for it in any way.
The Trump / Vance plan is appeasement. It will not bring about long-term peace because give Putin (as the aggressor) an inch and he’ll take a mile.
Looks like @Thelma Davies has posted on the wrong thread to the wrong Alex, as her comment has nothing whatsoever to do with mine nor with the OP. I tend to avoid the sort of issue that she is on about, for the sake of my mental health.
I shall, however, comment on her last sentence to point out that the political career path she refers to does not apply to the great majority of Lib Dem MPs, who have mostly come through ordinary jobs or local government.