Like Caron in Scotland I will be trying to track results, this time for the National Assembly of Wales. I have to admit that here at Lib Dem Voice we are at a bit of a disadvantage because none of us lives in Wales nor are we fully conversant with all the issues (although I can sing Hen Wlad Fy Nhadau rather better than John Redwood, having learnt Welsh for a couple of years at primary school).

So be gentle with us, and help us out. We would very much welcome input from readers in beautiful Wales on @libdemvoice, or [email protected], or in the comments below.

But before the results start appearing on @britainelects, or your channel of choice, here is some essential background information.

The Welsh Assembly has 60 elected members. Of these, 40 are elected in constituencies under First Past the Post – the constituencies are the same as the ones for the parliamentary elections to Westminster.

The remaining 20 members are elected using a quasi proportional regional process – the additional member system. The country is divided into five regions each consisting of 7, 8 or 9 constituencies. Within each region each voter can select one party from a choice of party lists. Four Assembly members are allocated from the lists for each region, in such as way that the total number of members from the region, including the constituency members, reflects the proportion of votes given to each party. This follows the same principle as the elections to the Scottish Parliament.

In the Assembly that has just come to an end,  Labour had 30 Assembly Members, the Conservatives had 14, Plaid Cymru had 11 and the Liberal Democrats had 5.

Of our AMs, Kirsty Williams, Leader of the Welsh Liberal Democrats, represented the Brecon & Radnorshire constituency, and is standing there again this time round. The other four were all elected as Regional members: William Powell in Mid & West Wales, Aled Roberts in North Wales, Peter Black in South Wales West, and Eluned Parrott in South Wales Central. All of them are standing again and are placed in the top position of their respective regional party lists.

11.30pm

The count is taking place overnight with results expected from 2am.

Welsh Assembly projection (YouGov poll surveyed today):
LAB: 27 AMs (-3)
PC: 12 (+1)
CON: 11 (-3)
UKIP: 8 (+8)
LDEM: 2 (-3)
Chgs. from 2011

— Britain Elects (@britainelects) May 5, 2016

Note that this is not an exit poll, but there are some similar gloomy predictions from party members.

3am

It’s going to be a long night in Wales. The big story is the growth of UKIP support, almost from nowhere. This was seen in the Parliamentary by-election in Ogmore where they came second to Labour, as well as in the early constituency results for the Assembly, where they are currently running at over 16%.

4.30pm

Good news at last! Kirsty Williams holds her constituency seat with an increased majority.

Brecon and Radnorshire
LDEM: 52.4% (+9.3)
CON: 25.4% (-7.9)
LAB: 8.9% (-8.0)
UKIP: 7.1% (+7.1)
PLAID: 3.9% (+2.8)
Kirsty Williams elected.

— Britain Elects (@britainelects) May 6, 2016

12pm

In case anyone is still following this thread, the news is that, after her spectacular win in Brecon & Radnorshire, Kirsty is now our only Assembly Member. As predicted, UKIP has made serious inroads into Wales and into our vote in particular, gaining 7 seats.

The final results are:

Labour – 29

Plaid Cymru -12

Conservative – 11

UKIP – 7

Liberal Democrat – 1

* Mary Reid is a contributing editor on Lib Dem Voice. She was a councillor in Kingston upon Thames, where she is still very active with the local party, and is the Hon President of Kingston Lib Dems.