Welcome to my day: 3 February – “this is all going to end in tears, isn’t it?”

Our Foreign Affairs Editor, Tom Arms, must be wondering whether or not he should be writing more than just a weekly column at the moment, as the American experiment with destroying its own government and the international world order at the same time unwinds. Levying 25% tariffs on your closest neighbours on the premise that they are failing to prevent fentanyl from crossing their borders into the United States, when just 43 pounds of fentanyl were seized at the northern border in 2024, merely makes it clear that this is intended to be a “punishment beating” for the “uppity Canadians” in particular. And given that the Mexican Government has been working with its American counterparts to reduce illegal migration with some success, you wonder what the Trump administration actually expects Mexico to do.

Rory Stewart makes the interesting point that, if Trump and his minions are going to tear down the network of international agreements and treaties because they can, how can any other nation hope to rely on the 800-pound gorilla that is America. And, perhaps more to the point, how can a Starmer-led Labour administration seriously countenance a trade deal with the United States given that Trump has now torn up his second North American Free Trade Agreement in eight years, the second of which he signed himself?

It does make Ed Davey look more and more like a prophet every day, even if Starmer, Reeves and Cooper all make a great show of denying him.

But tariffs aren’t the only way in which the international order is being undermined. Panama is now being threatened with the seizure of its primary asset, whilst 350,000 Venezuelans fleeing the corrupt and vengeful Maduro regime have been told that their temporary humanitarian protection is to be rescinded, leaving them open to being forcibly returned to the country they fled. Virtually the entire USAID programme is being suspended, and lives across the developing world will be lost as a result.

Now, in fairness, an American administration is perfectly entitled to do these things, and the rest of us are obliged to face the consequences. Does threatening a fellow NATO member over, for example, Greenland, trigger the Article 5 commitment and if it does, would non-US NATO members really want to take on the American behemoth? What might this mean for the freedom of, say, Moldova or Estonia, if a signal is being sent that the strong can do pretty much whatever they like?

Nervous times for us all, I’d suggest, and I’m clearly not alone in wondering about this. John Marriott wonders what this all means for our democracy, and he’s written something which demands some thought from us all, whilst Mo Waqas calls upon us to support Canada, not least because the rest of us could be next. On a different, but perhaps related note, Ken Westmoreland offers some thoughts on the New Zealand experience with proportional representation.

There’s also the erratically published preview of the week ahead in the Lords, noting that the soon to be introduced Lord Pack has politely declined my invitation to take up the role of Lords Correspondent going forward. In truth, I can’t blame him…

* Mark Valladares is the Monday Editor of Liberal Democrat Voice. Given that this was written late on Sunday evening, there’s every possibility that it could be out of date by the time it’s published given how quickly events are moving across the Atlantic…

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7 Comments

  • Mary Fulton 3rd Feb '25 - 11:23am

    I don’t really know what Mexico has been doing to curtail illegal immigration to the USA but I believe the numbers crossing from Mexico have been averaging several thousand per day – almost 7 million over the last 4 years. Whatever the Mexican government has been doing would appear to have been insufficient.

  • Lord Palmerston in a House of Commons speech in 1848 said “We have no eternal allies, and we have no perpetual enemies. Our interests are eternal and perpetual, and those interests it is our duty to follow.” That adage has become a mainstay of studies in International relations.
    There are many who suggest we are witnessing the inevitable decline of the Post WW2 American empire and a reordering of the world order largely as a consequence of the rise of China as an economic and military superpower.
    Angela Merkel once described Vladimir Putin as a leader using 19th-century methods in the 21st century. What the former German chancellor meant was that Russia’s leader is a man of war and and nationalism in an era supposedly defined by laws and globalisation. President Putin is said to take Peter the Great as historical inspiration for recreating a vision of Russia’s imperial past.
    Donald Trump has positively referenced the administration of imperialist US President McKinley, who added Hawaii, Guam, the Philippines and Puerto Rico to American territory. McKinley was also an advocate of high tariffs backed by the commercial titans of the day; J.P. Morgan and John D. Rockefeller who sought protection for their industrial monopolies.
    Following Lord Palmerston’s advice, the UK needs to look to its own interests and alliances. With Canada having to revisit its International trading relationhips and the North-West passage becoming a commercially viable trans-oceanic sea route this may be an opportune time to revisit UK trade and strategic relatiionships with Canada, Australia and New Zealand in addition to those with the EU https://www.canzukinternational.com/

  • Mark Frankel 4th Feb '25 - 9:23am

    I wonder whether this is a bit over-blown. The point about Trump is that he is chaotic and therefore weak. He’s already rowing back from tariffs on Mexico and more such may follow.

  • David Murray 4th Feb '25 - 2:44pm

    @Mark Frankel. It would be a mistake to characterise Trump as weak. Tariffs imposed ‘persuaded’ Colombia to provide the planes to collect their illegal immigrants from the US. As a result tariffs were withdrawn. Mexico has agreed to provide support to the US at the border, reducing the US commitment there. So tariffs are withdrawn. If Canada agrees to become the 51st state of the US, no doubt similar restrictions will be lifted. Tariffs are just a bargaining chip for Trump to get his own way, and reduce the cost to the US. The policy seems to be working, so ignore his disruption at your peril.

  • @David Murray – “ Tariffs are just a bargaining chip for Trump to get his own way, and reduce the cost to the US. The policy seems to be working, so ignore his disruption at your peril.”

    Agree, Trump has already said the UK’s £71bn trade surplus with the US is “out of line”, so we can expect Trump to deploy his protection racket style of negotiation against the UK. Trouble is I doubt neither Labour or the Conservatives actually have the backbone to stand up… so, like Brexit, whatever is “negotiated” will stuff the UK.

  • Joseph Bourke 4th Feb '25 - 5:11pm

    The US Tariff threats so far look a lot like showboating without any real concessions by targeted countries. Colombia has traditionally been the U.S.’s top ally in Latin America. But their relationship has strained since Petro, a former guerrilla, became Colombia’s first leftist president in 2022 and sought distance from the U.S.
    Colombia accepted 475 deportation flights from the U.S. from 2020 to 2024, fifth behind Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico and El Salvador, according to Witness at the Border, an advocacy group that tracks flight data. It accepted 124 deportation flights in 2024.
    The Biden administration secured a committment from Mexico to deploy 10,000 military to the US Southern border in 2021 without any threats How Trump was outfoxed by Mexico’s president over tariffs. Mexico’s president has secured a committment from Trump to crackdown on the transfer of Guns from the US to Mexican cartels.
    The Canadian border plan was originally negotiated with the Biden adminstation and announced in December Trump, Trudeau Agree To Terms Including Border Plan Originally Proposed Under Biden
    If and when the UK is targeted for Tariffs, we should look to dig out something already in place or commit to move the offshore wind turbines out of sight of Trump’s golf course in Aberdeenshire as and when they need replacing. That should do it.

  • @Joseph Bourke “ If and when the UK is targeted for Tariffs”

    With Trump it will be when no if, so perhaps we need to do some preparation. I suggest we implement some policies that can be negotiated away…

    The Trump golf course is on Scotland, so I’m sure there are things the Scottish Parliament can do that don’t involve Westminster.

    One thing that comes to mind is private/executive jets, given you need to be very wealthy to run one of these, perhaps we should be increasing airport movement charges to corresponding levels – given the wealth gap, a x100 on the maximum Heathrow charge (£14,046.20) could be justified…

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