Good morning, everyone, and welcome to another Monday morning. No, really, it’s not that bad…

Polling day is getting ever closer and predictions on how the various parties will get on are beginning to emerge, as Mark Pack has noted. I’m of the view that it’s harder and harder to make predictions based on national data, and that, as we saw in the 2024 General Election, voters will make decisions based on who they think the best alternative is where they are. Where Liberal Democrats are active, they’re likely to be seen as the best bet to keep Reform out, but even the Conservatives are claiming that voters are turning to them to keep Reform out. As the Guardian reports in an article about Conservative prospects on 7 May;

One MP suggests that tactical voting could boost the party’s results. “On the doorsteps I’ve had quite a lot of people say things like: ‘I’m normally a Lib Dem, but it’s you versus Reform here, and I want to keep Reform out at all costs, so I’ll vote for you.’

And, of course, in urban areas, there is a definite turn against Labour, outflanked to the left by the Greens and, perhaps, the Liberal Democrats, losing support to the Conservatives in places like North West London, and to Reform in predominantly white, working class areas. For some voters, the decision of who do vote for to give Labour a kicking and keep Reform out is going to be a challenging one. And, with rather lower turnouts than for national elections, what enthuses voters to come out om polling day will be key.

Elsewhere, I’ve applied for a postal vote for this year – we’ve got postponed County and Borough elections this time in Ipswich (the Borough elects in thirds). And I’ve discovered that, if you’ve left it this late, your postal ballot may not reach you until ten days before polling day, depending on how your local Election Services team organises things. For those planning to be somewhere else on 7 May, it might be a bit late to apply now so, instead, why not think about getting a proxy vote organised?

Otherwise, the war between the United States and Israel, and Iran, continues. If the rumours of a ground invasion of Iran are credible, things in the Gulf are going to get considerably worse before they get better. In rural areas like Suffolk, where car use is effectively obligatory in the absence of viable public transport, there will be increasing financial pain as petrol prices rise. Reports from Australia that the State governments in Tasmania and Victoria are introducing free public transport for a month offers a question about whether or not that might be a viable option for some places in the United Kingdom, something that Rachel Reeves and Heidi Alexander might want to think about.

Last week, I suggested that a move to renewables was an obvious lesson to be learned from developments in the Gulf. One of our readers, Jenny Barnes, made the very fair point that energy use isn’t just about electricity production and, of course, we use fossil fuels for a range of products and purposes, a point also emphasised by Tom Bailey. Any transition away from the use of fossil fuels is going to be, in the nature of things, complex. Finding new ways to do things requires technological innovation, investment and will. But doing the easier things now, like rail electrification, conversion from diesel and petrol driven vehicles to electric ones, reducing the use of plastic in our day to day lives, mitigates the need to extract quiet as much in the way of fossil fuels out of the ground.

In site news, today’s articles include an update on the first tier of local government, and an invitation to the AGM of the Liberal Democrat European Group on Tuesday night. No Lords report this week, as Peers have left Westminster for a two-week recess (just like their colleagues in the Commons). And, of course, we’ll have our regular column from Mathew Hulbert.

Finally, we’ve not been as engaging as we might be on social media so, why not follow our Bluesky account for regular updates on what’s appearing on the site, and like or repost what appears there if you feel so inclined?

* Mark Valladares is the Monday Editor of Liberal Democrat Voice.