Yesterday on LDV I had a look at how the 4th June local and Euro elections might play out for Labour, predicting that though the Lib Dems could and should beat Labour in the English county and unitary council elections being held, I was sceptical that the party would come second when voters cast their votes on the subject of Europe.
Today’s Times looks at possible outcomes of the local elections, and reports the analysis of polling expert, Robert Hayward who reckons that:
… Labour would lose at least 150 seats, the Tories would gain more than 150 and the Liberal Democrats would lose or win about 20. “Turnout could be as low as 30 per cent due to a general antipathy to politicians which will keep people at home and could favour the Tories,” Mr Hayward said.
(For the record, I doubt turnout will actually be that low. I recall similar predictions five years ago – not least because I was a council candidate in 2004 – the last time, local and Euro elections were held on the same day. In fact, turn-out was above 40%, and I’d expect a similar figure this time).
The paper goes on to suggest the Lib Dems should brace ourselves:
The Liberal Democrats could also have a rough night on June 4, losing one or two of the three counties they hold in the South West: Cornwall, Devon and Somerset.
What do LDV readers think? Might the party do better than this on 4th June? Or worse?
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56 Comments
I didn’t think Devon was up this year, pending a decision on unitaries?
I don’t know a great deal about counties, being a city boy but I think we may well surprise a few people in a few places.
Some in the press are making predictions of 6 BNP MEPs (almost a mathematical impossibility) so I’m not paying much attention to such things this year.
I think it’s still too difficult to call.
I am standing in Swanley as a way to both fight the BNP and boost Lib Dem votes in the Euros, as PPC for Sevenoaks. I think we just have to work damn hard for every vote we can get, regardless of past circumstances in a seat.
Somerset is only minority control. We have half the seats.
But yes, Devon is up.
Didn’t we get a majority in Somerest in 2005 – winning about 5 seats by under 100 and one in Minehead on about 26% of the vote
With that many marginal seats a potential loss is always on the table on a minute swing
Why are so many of these “polling experts” so dim when it comes to understanding elections?
I particularly dislike the way they refer to parties “losing” this or that authority, rather than “losing overall control”. Some years ago I remember being depressed by some berk on tv going on about “the Lib Dems losing Cornwall” and the bleak implications for the next parliamentary elections.
The following day I checked the results in the paper and found we had moved from 50 out of 99 to 49 out of 99 ……
Hardly a collapse!
We won Devon County Council in 2005 with ten more seats than the Tories – but on almost the same popular vote (First Pass the Post working for us for a change). Tories amassed large majorities; some Lib Dems have majorities of just four votes. So holding some divisions isn’t going to be easy.
Devon County Council, is one of only two (both Lib Dem) councils in the SW to get top four star rating from the Audit Commission. The fact is we’ve run Devon well, but there is always the danger national politics will dent our majority.
The Tories are not without their troubles, three de-selected current Tory county councillors are standing as independents.
Watched the commons today and saw your lib dem treasury spokesman jeremy browne,what a prat.This was one of the worse front bench performances by a spokes person of any front bench I’ve seen for a long while,god help us all if the lib dems ever get a sniff of power if browne is one of your best,I say again,GOD HELP US ALL.
In 2004 there were far more LG elections. All outs in many cities and metros. There are relatively few elections this time. None at all, barring by-elections, in Merseyside, Greater Manchester and so on.
LD’s are doomed in the Euro elections and the GE!
Cherio Nick Clegg in Sheffield Hallam!
could’nt agree with you more martin day,your the first person on here talking common sense.
tykejohnno,
Indeed the LD’s look like the political equivalent of the Doo Doo bird after the next election!
Extinct!
Cherio LD’s!
The only thing that will tempt us here is Alix in the nude! 🙂
Martin ,I might be tempted here again if it was julia goldsworthy in the nude,but then again she’s a lib dem,passion killer.
It seems the tory parents were all out at a campaign meeting from about 11pm onwards, allowing the children to use the internet unsupervised.
hywel,me dear old lib dem,did you see your treasury spokesman jeremy browne in the commons today,he was bloody awful and if that is the quality of the lib dem MP’s,the lib dems should stick to student politics,PLEASE.
“in 2004 – the last time, local and Euro elections were held on the same day – turn-out was above 40%, and I’d expect a similar figure this time.”
How much of this was thanks to the all postal votes in the North West, North East, East Mids and Yorkshire; and all-ups in the Mets that aren’t on the cards this time?
I think the chances of a 40% turnout in June are extremely slim.
I’m in two minds as to what to do with troll comments.
Do we wash them down into the sewer whence they came?
Or do we leave them where they are, and give the public the impression that Conservative supporters are a bunch of immature prep school brats who become uber obnoxious when they’ve had too much to drink?
Now to the serious business.
I have no way of knowing what is going to happen in the Counties. Labour wipe-out in Exeter? UKIP bringing out additional right-wing voters? Traditional Lib Dem local campaigning winning through on a low turnout? Who knows? We’ll soon find out.
What I would say is that a lot of people don’t actually appreciate how much of their money County Councils spend (roughly 90% of the Council Tax). In years past, the turnout for 2nd tier authorities has been higher than for Counties, reflecting a greater degree of engagement with the geographically more proximate (but much less powerful) body. Traditionally, County Councils, with their daytime meetings, have been run by blimps and blue-rinses. The Lib Dems are the people to shake them up.
I think leave the troll comments where they are. It amuses me that someone criticising Jeremy Browne as “awful” seemingly can’t use the space bar.
Martin – whilst I know your comments are intended just to wind up the Lib Dems, your comments on Nick Clegg’s chances in Sheffield Hallam shows a startling lack of any knowledge as to what is happening on the ground and in Sheffield in particular.
Rather than winding us up it just makes you look clueless.
Anders Hanson
(Sheffield Hallam Constituency Organiser until two weeks ago)
Leave the trolls – we all need a good laugh in the morning…
sesenco,your a very good liberal,threatening to get rid of people’s comments because people out in the real world think your party are a joke,Grammar police = PRAT,KL,it’s the lib dems who are a joke and when cleggover speaks – country laughs,by the way I’am not a tory,but I will be voting conservative for the time to get rid of new labour.
@ tykejohnno, I may be a prat, but you’re the one spending your time leaving extremely random messages on this website (still need a new keyboard? Lots of spaces missing).
But if the “country laughed” when Nick spoke we’d be getting somewhere ;o)
Vote Tory and enjoy the warm glow it will bring you to vote for a reactionary Cameron-led Government.
Anders Says:
7th May 2009 at 9:43 am
🙂 😆
Grammar police,tipical lib dem,looking down on ordinary working class joe blogg.I could’nt give a sh*t about missing spaces and I will be voting for a centre right political party,yes it will give me a warm glow ,when the lib dems get squeezed at the general election.
Yes, because being working-class is an excuse for not being able to write.
Who exactly is going to replace Clegg in Sheffield Hallam then?
He’s not the messiah, he’s a very naughty boy!
@ tykejohnno, yeah, whatever mate. Have you been saving that particular one up? I assume it’s what you came here for (I wouldn’t want you to be disappointed)?
I hadn’t realised that occasional use of the space bar was the criteria for membership of the “ordinary working class” these days? I thought it was about background, your parents and your job? Silly me.
I predict that for his next trick, he’ll claim to be too busy having a full & productive life to type properly, in a way that he hopes will reflect slightingly on us.
You can see it all coming a mile off.
asquith,no,it is’nt a excuse,but people like grammar police looks for any weakness ,person to replace clegg,lets say jeremy clarkson,people in sheffield hallam will love him.
Well, I’m just trying to reflect your standard of debate. Apologies if that’s a weakness.
I’m not sure how the elections will turn out, beyond the fact that Labour will lose seats in the locals and that UKIP will do so too at the Euro level. I think the Lib Dems will hold their own, but I’m not sure there’ll be any great advances – some slight loss or gain seems about right.
Clarkson would be flayed alive by Clegg & I’d laugh my head off.
The only funnier thing would be for him to get elected & then have no idea whatsoever what to actually do. His voters would soon be having regrets 🙂
Asquith,sorry bud,but you were a mile off for my next trick and grammar cop ,you were going on my weakness of the space bar ,not the debate,by the way the debate was the lib dems = joke.
I’m sorry Tyke, but “debate” doesn’t mean “lib dems = joke Ya boo hiss blah blah I’m-gonnna-vote-for-the-tories GOD HELP US ALL” (I think I’ve pretty much summed up your posts so far?).
I merely pointed out that given the “depth” of your criticsim it amused me that the space bar didn’t seem to work for you. Quite simply, I was responding to silly childish posts with a silly childish post.
Are tykejohnno and Martin Day the same person?
A CHILDISH POST JUST FOR GRAMMAR COP. Jeremy Clarkson for sheffield hallam(local common man)versus Nick Cleggover(posh boy ,yes £30 pound pensions).
The persistent unintelligent abuse of people like Martin Day was the reason I stopped reading the posts on Political Betting.
The only story of the Euro elections is going to be the success of the BNP, and possibly Nigel Farrage’s failure to step down as leader of UKIP when they lose 5 seats. The counties will be mixed for us, but as the Tories are already in such a strong position in most County Councils there is unlikely to be much possibility of a ‘Tory Landslide’ narrative. On the other hand any Labour losses at either election will be over-dramatised by the political commentators because the current story is Labour-tearing-themselves-to-pieces.
I think a solid Lib Dem holding performance will be a good performance and also a good indicator of whether we can stem the possible Tory tide at the next GE and whether Labour votes will switch to us, the BNP or just stay at home.
The key issue this time as others have noted is how many Euro and local seats the BNP will pick up. I also agree that UKIP are likely to lose support and seats after their shambolic performance in Brussels, haemorrhaging MEPs.
As for the Tory interlopers on this site, I think its flattering that they think we are significant enough a threat that they bother to come on here to make their childish comments. As for our front bench, where else in parliament can you find a Professor of Social Policy (Steve Webb), a former Chief Economist of Shell (Vince Cable) and a Vice-President of JP Morgan (David Laws)all occupying top positions? For the Tory equivalents read: Theresa May,George Osborne and Michael Gove – rather lightwieght don’t you think?
danny boy russell,I know the lib dems are not a threat.The lib dem front bench never gets a hard time from tv media ,especially the bbc who give the lib dems spokespeople love-ins,by the way is david dimbleby a fully paid up member?.The bbc made vince cable(mr bean joke)and vince cable only say’s the bloody obvious with the left wing media sucking up to him.
As one of your posters noted,the Lib Dems gained Devon from NOC in ’05 on an approximately equal share of vote to the Conservatives after 4 years of lacklustre power sharing. What was omitted from previous post was the role UKIP played in vote splitting.
Voters appeared to use the County ballot as a second preference vote – just add up the votes UKIP got in the County contests in Torridge & West Devon for instance.
So the real question might be can the Tories capitalize on changed circumstances to gain or regain seats they would or should have won in ’05 but were denied by the UKIP?
My best guess is that there are at least 5 seats out there that could change hands meaning the Lib Dems lose control. It was a lucky break to gain Devon in ’05 and is unlikely to be repeated on the same day as a European Parliamentary election when those voters with UKIP tendencies may use the County elections for a very different purpose – to give Brown a kicking.
tykejohnno, if you really think that Vince Cable is saying ‘the bloody obvious’ why isn’t anyone in the Tory party leading the way on this issue? Probably because the Tory party is bereft of informed talent in this area.You also have little concept of how hard it is for third parties to get media attention by your uninformed remarks. Your reference to my name obviously shows you up for the childish, patronising Tory that you are. If you haven’t got anything constructive/intelligent to say then I suggest you blog elsewhere.
Only just caught up with all this. Jeremy Clarkson a “local common man”?? He lives in a mansion in Chipping bloody Norton!
Yes, & went to private school as well.
God you liberals are so up tight,sexy alix,that’s not the point about clarkson,he may live in a mansion now,but he came from nothing,some thing you can’t say about nicolas clegg.I give danny boy,in friendly terms,if you think over wise,it’s you who have problems,then I come to my favorite tory boy pretending to be a lib dem,yes you mr asquith,every thing about you say’s to me TORY BOY.This is supposed to be a liberal free speech site,and the lib dems supporters are telling me to go way or take my comments off,even if my comments are childish or badly written,you are supposed to be the friendly party,my arse,more like the NASTY PARTY.
I can’t really make much sense of the last post, but is it really illiberal or nasty to point out that childish, badly argued (or “not argued”) posts are childish and/or badly argued? I think you need a thicker skin.
You came on this site presumably to try to wind people up (you certainly didn’t come here to debate), and so what’s the problem?
grammar cop,I seem to it a nerve with you old boy.I came on here ,’yes’to have a bit of fun,but also see what sort of people are lib dems and what I have found out,you lot are a bunch of up tight,down right rude ,illiberal upstarts.lib dem = doomed
Why should we care what Clegg or Clarkson’s family background is? We’re liberals – if you want to have a good old slanging match about “toffs” and “plebs” there are two great big class-based parties to choose from, we prefer to judge people on what they do with their own lives.
Nick Clegg may have had some advantages of birth but what he did for himself was become a liberal and dedicate his life to a brand of politics devoted to improving the lot of the ordinary citizen.
Clarkson may have been born the son of a working class whatever, but he has since devoted HIS life to forming ill-informed, retrograde opinions and using his media platform to advance the conservative politics of exclusion, jealousy and ignorance.
I know which biography I’d be more proud of.
benji,if you look further up thread,you liberals are more into class war than the socialist,your own lovely alix mortimer mentioned class,so don’t come the high and mighty with me benji,the lib dems should be called the two faced party,just pathetic.
But you see, Alix and I are individuals – just because she says something (which I haven’t hunted down so I don’t know what she actually said) doesn’t follow that would automatically agree with it. We are independent minds.
I merely pointed out that “local, common man” Jeremy Clarkson lives in a mansion in Gloucestershire. He may have many qualities that might fit him for being MP for Sheffield Hallam (though I’m struggling to think of any, if I’m honest), but being either local or in daily touch with the lot of the “common man” are not among them.
In other words, you brought class into it, tyke. Not I.
Loving this:
@tykejohnno “I came on here ,’yes’to have a bit of fun,but also see what sort of people are lib dems”
Oh, right, so to see what sort of people we are? In the spirit of enquiry, you mean? Just curious? Wanted to see whether you got on with Lib Dems or not.
Hey, maybe that’s why your first post finished with:
“god help us all if the lib dems ever get a sniff of power if browne is one of your best,I say again,GOD HELP US ALL.”
Don’t you think that might have been a teensy bit combative as a way of finding out what we’re like? Do you usually find it difficult to make friends?
I think it’s perverse that Grammar Police is being criticised for pointing out grammatical errors.
GP took on that identity so should be criticised for failing to do so.
I guess consistency is a bad thing now!
Alix Mortimer,yes I did mention class first but you mentioned class secondly (He lives in a mansion in chipping BLOODY norton)them few words Alix,sounds to me that theys a angry socialist trying to get out,are you in the wrong party.The jeremy browne comments are the truth,he was bloody awful in the commons.The making friends bit,oh no ,another dig at me I see alix,well I still think your great,better get back on message,LIB DEMS = SQUEEZED.
Excuse me if I am missing something here, but why is Lib Dem Voice wasting bandwidth (1) discussing Jeremy Clarkson, and (2) entertaining a Tory troll who clearly has a coherence problem. Perhaps said Conservative gentleman might care to apologise for his bullying, sexist quip further up the thread. Is this the kind of thing George Osborne says late at night over the Glenlivet bottle?
SESENCO,The true voice of liberalism,you prove it every time you come on here.The comments you make my friend,are short tempered,don’t discuss things because we don’t like it and don’t say things like a sexist quip,god,you are so PC,I must be a real liberal because I have free thinking,just look at what you have put down sesenco on this thread and you come out as a illiberal,are you in the right party ?by the way,I’am not a tory,but I will be voting for them to get rid of new labour,they the only decent party.
Tykejohnno, Lord Ashcroft has vast supplies of dodgy money to fund dodgy Tories running dodgy campaigns. But he surely wasted it on all the booze he must have bought to fuel your contribution to this “debate”!
spaceout,FFS ,we have a lib dem with a sence of humour,talking about the MP’s expenses,looking not very good for the lib dems to come out of this whiter than white(or better be careful or you illiberals might think that was racist)or I better use another phrase,purer than pure(or sh*t,done it again,the illiberals might think I’am a nazi)but seriously,all major political parties come out of the MP’s expenses badly ,so you lib dems don’t even try to score political points,like I know you will.