Lib Dem Voice has polled our members-only forum to discover what Lib Dem members think of various political issues, the Coalition, and the performance of key party figures. Over 660 party members have responded, and we’re currently publishing the full results.
To read Part 1 — What Lib Dem members think about the party and its leadership — click here.
What Lib Dem members think about the Coalition and its future
LDV asked: Do you approve or disapprove of the Coalition Government’s record to date? (Comparison with November’s figures.)
- 60% (67%) – Approve
- 28% (23%) – Disapprove
- 11% (10%) – Don’t know / No opinion
- Net approval: +32% (+44%)
There has been a sharp fall in approval for the Coalition Government’s performance since November, down to +32% — though this means it’s still rated positively by a 2:1 majority of Lib Dem members. In August, net approval was +45%, and in November it was +44%, so the drop this month is noticeable.
LDV asked: How long do you expect the coalition government will last? (Comparison with August’s figures)
- 3% (1%) – It will end this year, 2011
- 11% (5%) – It will last another year or two, until 2012-13
- 8% (14%) – It will last another three years, until 2014
- 72% (77%) – It will last the full term, until 2015
- 6% (3%) – Don’t know / No opinion
There has been a small shift among members thinking the Coalition might end prematurely within the next three years, up from 6% in November to 14% today. However, confidence in the ‘stickability’ of the Coalition remains high: while five months ago fewer than two-thirds (63%) of members expected the Coalition to last the full term, that figure now stands at more than 70%.
LDV asked: Do you think the Coalition Government will be good or bad for the Lib Dems’ electoral prospects at the next general election? (Comparison with November’s figures)
- 13% (14%) – Good
- 53% (52%) – Bad
- 17% (14%) – Neither good nor bad
- 17% (20%) – Don’t know / No opinion
No big shifts in opinion among Lib Dem members here — as last month, a slim majority believe it will prove to be bad for the Lib Dems, with 47% split between good, neutral and unsure.
Here’s a sample of your comments:
I don’t think we should put the party’s popularity before principle – in particular at present the principle of ensuring economic recovery and maintaining a strong coalition government.
The longer it lasts the better for us because we need to be able to say we have seen the country through an economic crisis and we have modernised our institutions.
I believe we’re doing all we can, and I believe we’re making a positive difference to how the country is run as opposed to a strict Tory government; I also believe that it has been an unmitigated PR disaster that needs to be proactively managed in 2011 and beyond, lest we get all but obliterated in the next elections.
Too early to judge. If maintains current course of action, and we boost our communications strategy than good.
I think the government will shuffle on as a ‘conspiracy of optimism’ for another couple of years, after having lost most of it’s credibility through comments made in private by ministers, various scandals, and so on. The conservatives will take considerably less electoral damage, having succeeded in their excellent plan, to use us to announce unpopular policies, and to take credit for any popular ones.
Total suicide. I would rather be selling raw sewage on the doorstep next election – we are going to be punished severely for what the leadership has done.
If (big if) the economy continues to improve, people may thank the Lib Dems for the risks they’ve taken and the stability they’ve brought
Ultimately, it is up to us to determine whether we get a good result for the party out of this coalition – and that will depend on courage of our convictions about what is best for the UK.
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26 Comments
If we get out of the Coalition now then we might improve our poll ratings and stand a chance of getting a share of power in an ensuing hung Parliament… oh, hang on.
A very optimistic summary of what people think of damage to our electoral prospects. The figures say 4 times as many people think it is bad for our prospects as say good.
We are not going to get out of this coalition so stop whistling in the dark. But some of our senior MPs need to up their performance significantly if they are not to get a tougher ride from activists than from the general public. Perhaps i am whistling in the dark?
The next big problem looming on the horizons is the NHS ‘reforms’ (sic) which are such absolute garbage that no sensible Tory, let alone Lib Dem would go anywhere near them. Wasting another fortune of public money while valuable services are being cut back – it is like Gove’s education rubbish only more problematic due to the scale of the money involved.
I’m not a LibDem member but as it’s fairly obvious that a lot of members have gone it seems the results are not comparing like-with-like. Is there anyway this can be factored-in to get a more accurate result.
Obviously if left or centre LibDem menbers are reducing this skews the polling in favour of the Tory wing of the party
EcoJon – “Obviously if left or centre LibDem menbers are reducing this skews the polling in favour of the Tory wing of the party”
There is no such thing as a “Tory wing of the party”. That is a (I suspect deliberate) insult to those, such as myself, who have campaigned long and hard for Lib Dems in Tory-held seats.
Not being a die-hard central statist does not conflate with being a Tory.
Tony Dawson is right about the NHS reforms. Before the election the Tories said there would be no top-down reform of the NHS. The Coalition Agreement said the same thing. Yet, within weeks Lansley was announcing major reforms.
That means one of two things. Either the Tories had been working on the plans before the election and lied to electorate then lied to the Lib Dems in the coalition negotiations, or the plans were concocted very quickly after the Coalition Agreement had been signed.
@EcoJon
I’m sure some party members have left, but I haven’t heard of that many and if there were mass departures going on I’m sure there would be more evidence of them. And last I heard membership was up, although that’s probably in part down to new members. I’m sure you’re right that there have been some, just as some left-wingers tore up their Labour membership cards in response to Blair and some right-wing Conservatives ditto in response to Cameron (to be replaced in both cases by moderates previously turned off the respective parties). But I doubt if it’s enough (yet, anyway) to skew the results.
@Simon
I strongly suspect the second of the two is the true reason. From what I’ve heard the proposed reforms are almost entirely Lansley’s brainchild, mostly born out of his ego and a desire not to be the only one of the top cabinet ministers not to be implementing a grand reforming agenda. Apparently Cameron would rather leave the NHS alone, but also wants to be a more ‘presidential’ figure, i.e. not interfering in individual departments thus avoiding getting his hands dirty, so is unlikely to intervene. And it doesn’t seem like Paul Burstow is proving to be a fantastically effective minister, so – ironically – it’s so far fallen to backbench Tory MPs to argue against the reorganisation.
I agree with both you and Tony Dawson – IMO the NHS plans are the worst thing to be done / planned by the coalition so far. This and free schools, but at least the schools agenda has been partly thought through even though I still don’t like it – the NHS plans are rushed as well as stupid.
You need to ask yourself is it’s better to get out at a time of your own choosing or when you have run out of excuses and options. It can and will get much, much worse.
How are Liberal Democrats going to fight an election with Nick as Leader trying to convince the public that he wants to scrap tuition fees again ? Or that he want’s to fight for the poor, vulnerable and disabled after attacking them with Thatcherite cuts ? Or that he is pro NHS and pro Education after the insane far right reforms being rammed through have caused absolute chaos and irreparable damage in both areas ?
Even if you accept the idea that this Conservative Liberal pact will last till 2015, you can’t seriously think that Clegg will be fighting another election as Leader ?
He’s done. Over. Finished.
Well, if you take a look at Lib Dem members, only 24% distrust Nick Clegg. But if you take a look at all people who voted Lib Dem in 2010 (a much larger sample), 66% distrust – compared to 67% of the population at large. That doesn’t look very good.
If the Lib Dem poll ratings stay where they are, we’ll be lucky to keep 5-10 seats. May very well lose everything.
@ I see no iceberg + Anthony:
“(Clegg’s) done, Over, Finished”
+
” If the LibDem poll ratings stay where they are, we’ll be lucky to keep 5-10 sets. May very well lose everything.”
Precisely. Where does Clegg think he is leading us to? Is he carving out a niche for himself, in future history books, as the last leader of the Liberal Democrats?
I can see our poll ratings going lower than they are now; and I can see no reason why they should recover: whether this ill-conceived coalition endures for the full five years or not. If, by the next election, people support the present government, they will vote Tory. If not, and if they have forgiven Labour sufficiently to be ready to give them another chance, they will vote accordingly. Why would anyone vote LibDem?
‘Even if you accept the idea that this Conservative Liberal pact will last till 2015, you can’t seriously think that Clegg will be fighting another election as Leader ?
He’s done. Over. Finished’
And yet the majority of party members polled on here still approve of his effectiveness as a leader (I’d put it at moderate myself, but I’m not a party member), so it might happen. The percentage is falling, and if they start to believe the current polls are not going to rebound that will become a rout, but I think it is too soon to say Clegg is over and finished. If things do pick up in the long run and the polls return to something normality (I’m sure I saw one on 13%, which while way down on GE results I know I have seen between 2005-2010, which would be a start if it wasn’t just a flash in the pan), he could claim it shows the public and party have seen the difficult decisions taken and accepted them in light of what has been achieved.
That said, for one other simple reason he probably won’t lead the party into the next GE, if it is in 2015 anyway. If another hung parliament was produced and he led the party into another Conservative pact, lots of people I suspect would begin to believe the preposterous notion that there is no difference between the two parties, and the idea of a permanent pact would take hold(the idea LD would only every work with Labour probably counted against them before too), and he is supposedly an obstacle to any Lib-Lab working relationship. I can see many in the party preferring, if it becomes an option, a Lib-Lab pact next time around, not just because many see themselves as closer to Labour, but to demonstrate the Conservative arrangement was just that: an arrangement. That approach is not without its own pitfalls of course.
For me the most pertinent polls are that most of those polled are broadly accepting of the Coalition’s record, which is to be expected as in a junior role one will have to be more accepting of some stuff they do not like, and even agree the party is on the right track, but the largest single proportion by far believes it will harm the party’s prospects at the next election. That says to me most of the party, or at least the snapshot here, agree that a premature end to the Coalition helps no one – party or country -but that even if that were not the case they have no choice because they would suffer in an election.
That suggests to me that the leadership will prove more resilient than many pundits expect and, in some cases, hope even if, as expected, there is a big drop in the local elections in may, as party members seem to acknowledge that in the short and mid term the party will inevitably take a hit, but that at this stage getting rid of the leadership and/or derailing the Coalition will not help, and that the only way forward is to push on through the hard times and gamble on the payoff at the end.
If, by the next election, people support the present government, they will vote Tory. If not, and if they have forgiven Labour sufficiently to be ready to give them another chance, they will vote accordingly. Why would anyone vote LibDem?
————
Um, because in supporting the Coalition government’s actions they might recognise that the fact the LD were a part of it and are why it was able to do what it did? Who knows, perhaps they might like the idea of the LDs having a larger influence on a future Coalition of any stripe, and vote LD so they can have more pull in negotions than comes with 57 seats. I agreed with some major parts of the Tory plans, the need to cut the first year for one, but I still thought the larger influence the LD had the better we’d be overall. The LD do kind of need to hope people will see them in a coalition, with anyone, as neutralising the extreme wings of the senior partner from having influence and so useful right there.
For the record I always thought the May result , even beore the negotiations were done, might be the end of the party as a major force, for a time at least. It did provide the opportunity the LD needed for possibly achieving things they never could otherwise and even make the next jump up in terms of seats, but the possibilities for negative outcomes were and are far more numerous. I retain hope though. Even if I don’t end up voting LD next time, a major third party is a useful thing to have.
I realise that “hoping everything will turn out nice in the long run” is the current state of ‘tactical’ thinking around Clegg, but I simply ask people to fast forward and the election has been called in 2015 (if you want to believe Clegg can hold on that long) and now imagine what happens next. You are asking the public to suddenly judge both Parties as a separate entities even though Nick’s plan all along has been to glue his ministers and himself to everything done in the coalitions name.
Do you think you can run an election campaign by saying the Conservatives are nice chaps really but we think we as the junior partners should be awarded all the acclaim and none of the opprobrium ? Being polite isn’t going to fly in the Tory marginals becuase they will be going in for the kill.
Or perhaps you expect the public to swallow a complete U-Turn after sticking up for everything the Conservatives have done and can campaign by saying, “well we hated them really but we had no choice and we’ve changed our mind about them now it’s election time”.
Always remember the next manifesto has to be believed and with Nick front and centre it simply won’t be.
But don’t take my word for it as May is going to be a small taste of the absolute chaos that awaits those who think clinging to Cameron and hoping for the best is a tenable position.
“That is a (I suspect deliberate) insult to those, such as myself, who have campaigned long and hard for Lib Dems in Tory-held seats.”
Believe me, it’s nowhere near as big an insult as the actions of this government. For myself, I wish now that I had never knocked a door or pushed a leaflet through a letter-box for the Lib Dems.
@EcoJon,
Stephen or Mark will be able to confirm, but while a check that someone is a member is made when they are given access to the members’ forum & sign up for the questionnaire, I don’t think regular checks are made to remove access for those that are no longer members of the party. The group polled is therefore, I suspect, largely unchanged since May and the formation of the coalition.
@ Andrew Tennant,
I wonder if Stephen, Mark or someone in Membership Services can confirm or correct a related point?
i’ve heard that when someone says “I’ve resigned” or “I’ve cut up my “membership card”, they are not automatically deleted from the membership list. It is only when their membership lapses (i.e. a year and three months after they last paid a membership subscription) that their name drops off the list. Is that corrrect?
In that case, the current membership figures may be misleading since they will include those who joined the party in the run up to last year’s election and any who have joined since, but will not yet reflect those who have left. it will be interesting to see what the membership figures look like around the time of this year’s Autumn conference which will be just over a year and three months after the creation of the coalition.
@Nick
As a former local party Membership Secretary my recollection is that individuals who resign appear on the moved or left distribution list and cease being active counted members. This differs from the at risk and lapsed lists of people who have not renewed and not renewed for a set period respectively.
I raised the issue about possible changes in composition of the group polled because a change in its make-up could well alter the result as it is not a like-for-like situation.
For arguments sake – say a group was polled a year ago on the Leadership issue and at that time it was 50/50 Left and Right. And by using these labels I am not attacking any grouping btw.
Then 12 months later after a significant move to the right it appears to me that it is highly likely that the polling group composion could alter with more from the right and less from the left. It may well be that no one has actually left the party but the left could possibly be less likely to vote – even against – than the right.
I’ve seen lib members on here and elsewhere say they are chucking it, fed-up, and a whole host of other negative comments and most of these seem to be on the Beveridge wing – the gung-ho brigade seem to out-Tory the Tories. I don’t know enough about the LibDems to know whether the right is growing or was always at the same strength and has just found the courage to articulate the position more loudly.
I know from past experience and experience of life that local party branches often keep their membership records up to date so they ain’t paying dues on lapsed members. But the central membership department at Party HQ has a very real pressure on them not to publish figures which show drops in party membership particularly at times where the party is under pressure.
I think I remember LibDem published membership increases of 4,500 after the GE – I would be very surprised if a significantly higher number of members have not left since those heady days.
But the actual situation will be revealed at national elections such as May – that’s when you start to see the gaps in the ranks and then you also start to see old-colleagues working for an opposing party. Obviously the public vote turning against a party is another sapping experience.
It doesn’t really matter which party is the one in decline – the progression is similar. Ordinary workers don’t tend to make a song and dance and have a public burning of their membership card – they fold their tent and go off into the night quietly – usually more in sadness than anger.
I did that when Blair became LP leader but have rejoined the party under Milliband because i believe there is a degree of honesty there that I can work with – I hope that the British people will come to feel the same but make no mistake our Democracy is under pressure and threat mainly because of the public being turned-off by unscrupulous politicians that just can’t be trusted and no never even attempt to give an honest answer.
I’m watching Cameron on the NHS just now – it’s all just whitewash and we stand on the verge of beginning the destruction of the NHS by introducing wholesale privatisation. As usual no real details – just guff.
There was a lot I disagreed with Blair on but the Tories enthusiastically supported by the LibDems are tearing apart and changing every single aspect of our society – I don’t actually think that anyone looking back just 12 months actually believes that everything in the country was wrong and needed a root and branch shake-uo.
It really is more akin to a Maoist perpetual revolution with a little orange and blue book rather than a red one.
Do you think you can run an election campaign by saying the Conservatives are nice chaps really but we think we as the junior partners should be awarded all the acclaim and none of the opprobrium ?
——–
Other countries manage to get around it; your argument seems to suggest coalition politics is simply not possible because how can you campaign separate to those you just governed with?
They could say: ‘we managed to get some good things done and are proud of that, but we could have done a lot more good, liberal things if we had more seats and the Conservatives less, and the best things were our idea(whether that is bought or not, who knows)”. They have to stick up for governmental policies (whether they should have allowed them to become governmental policies is another debate entirely), but it is easy enough to say ‘we have differing ideas on how to do things – that is why we are separate parties after all – but we managed to reach the best compromise available; vote for us and we’ll be in a position to take a greater role in shaping policy to a liberal position’.
“your argument seems to suggest coalition politics is simply not possible because how can you campaign separate to those you just governed with?”
No, I’m suggesting Nick sealed his own and the Party’s fate when he chose to run this particular coalition as an inseparable unit with David Cameron and the Tories.
There are as many different styles of coalition as there are coalition government’s in the world so pretending that Clegg and Cameron’s way is the only way is, at best, disingenuous. Nick wanted himself, his ministers and the Liberal Democrats to be speaking from the same page as Cameron and the Conservative from the start, and this is the result.
It’s entirely possible to run a coalition at arms length from the other Party but Nick would not countenance that. He feared for his position and thought the only way to make himself ‘safe’ was to dip every other Minister and Liberal Democrat MP’s hands deep in the Tory Policies to make sure they were also seen as culpable. To cement any blame, share it around everyone and keep them all together no matter what the misgivings from anyone else about the wisdom of being seen as joined at the hip to the Tories.
So it’s too late now to pretend an arms length policy from Nick is very credible, though he has become desperate enough to finally consider doing it. (airing differences publicly is the long overdue first step)
“They could say: ‘we managed to get some good things done and are proud of that, but we could have done a lot more good, liberal things if we had more seats and the Conservatives less, and the best things were our idea.”
“we have differing ideas on how to do things – that is why we are separate parties after all – but we managed to reach the best compromise available; vote for us and we’ll be in a position to take a greater role in shaping policy to a liberal position’.”
Both of which have been used since day 1 of the coalition and it doesn’t seem to be helping.
But we’ll see the proof in a few months as that will have to be the narrative come May.
Speaking personally, I think it’s almost a certainty there will be a new Leader for the next election as that is the only thing that will convince the public that Liberal Democrats are once again Liberal Democrats with a new Leader who can promise things in a manifesto and be believed. Then the public might think a line has been drawn and so Liberal Democrats deserve another chance.
Whether even that will be enough, particularly if the public mood does not change radically in favour of the Liberal Democrats, only time will tell.
@I see no Iceberg
I hear what you say and agree with most of it but I’m not sure about Nick being replaced as leader – I don’t think the party has the will left to unseat him – I am not talking about the rule book here I am talking about having the guts to be able to spill blood and take an almighty gamble as opposed to just clinging on with their fingertips in the belief that salvation will come with economic recovery.
But the other key issue is the referendum – if he wins that then he may secure a ticket to fight the next GE although if things continue to go badly for the LibDems in terms of elections, poll results, public hatred, defections of members, then he might go to Europe as a Cameron thankyou for services rendered to the Tory Party. If that happens I believe British voters would then bury the LibDems but as that might happen anyway – if the things I’ve mentioned come to pass – does it matter?
@EcoJon
In this, as with all your postings, I’m sure you only have Lib Dem members’ interests at heart. Oh wait…
It is completely inconceivable, just months into our first involvement in national government in decades, that anything good could come of panicking, bailing out and running away from holding responsibility. We’re trying our best, with a poor hand, and very trying circumstances to fix the absolute economic, legal and social mess that Labour left for us; it’s infinitely better and more respectable than any alternative. To govern is to choose; if people want to support parties of perpetual opposition there are plenty of other options.
@Andrew Tennant
Andrew – let’s be quite clear that I have no interest in LibDem members that I find hard to distinguish from Tories. I am interested in members on the centre/centre left/Beveridge wing of the party. I think it important that a strong LibDem party survives as long as it isn’t dominated by it’s right wing, as at present, or is a pale yellow shadow of the Tory Party.
You say to govern is to choose and that you are: ‘trying our best, with a poor hand, and very trying circumstances to fix the absolute economic, legal and social mess that Labour left for us; it’s infinitely better and more respectable than any alternative. ‘
Thankfully you’re not the one who will make that judgement – it’s the people who will choose and make judgement at the next GE and I have to say that if I was a LibDem member at the moment I would be worrying that my party might well be consigned back to perpetual opposition yet again through electoral choice.
Nick (not Clegg): That’s not the case. If someone tells Membership Services (or tells their local party, who then pass on the message) that they’ve resigned, that comes into force immediately. Of course there’ll be the occasional case where an email goes astray etc, but that’s the rare exception.
Mark,
Thanks for the clarification.
Can someone PLEASE tell me exactly what LibDem polocies have been implemented so far, because all I have seen are unfair conservative polocies using us as the fall guys.
Back on topic,
These polls are a waste of time, the only ones that matter are when the public are asked for their opinion, not Libdem members. It makes no difference what we think, its what the public think that counts, I guess you are too afraid to ask them.