Earlier today Vince Cable gave a pugnacious speech, bashing bankers to use the tabloids’ favourite phrase, but doing so in the name of industry:
I can see Richard covering his eyes and groaning, alarmed that I may be about to embark on a round of “banker bashing”. What I can tell him is that businesses – including a lot of CBI members – keep telling me that I am not bashing them enough.
Of course, there is no point in engaging in a sterile public exchange of insults. But no one listening to the Chancellor’s statement last week will be under any doubt of the Government’s collective determination to ensure that banks act in the interests of the wider economy – and that in the New Year they don’t engage in another self-indulgent bonus round.
I do, however, agree with Richard when he says that politicians should not just criticise but describe what kind of banking system they want in this country. How should it look in five years’ time?
A guiding principle should be investing for the long-term. The model of finance that brought us to this point was disastrously short term. Securitization is a valuable innovation, but it reached the point where investments were being made with little concern for long term factors, because everyone assumed they could sell them on in liquid markets. Loans were increasingly divorced from the relationships that can make the loans work. What the Bank of England governor calls the casino part of investment banking came to dominate and in some case destabilise leading banks.
There is an important role for trading activities; for hedging in markets like foreign currency and commodities which are inherently volatile. But as Warren Buffett put it: “We believe that according the name ‘investors’ to institutions that trade actively is like calling someone who repeatedly engages in one-night stands a ‘romantic.'”
I appreciate that most banks can’t be like Warren Buffett, who when asked what his favourite holding period was, answered “forever”. In any relationship, it must be possible to seek a divorce. But we have reached a point where thousands of businesses have a choice of just three or four partners, which is clearly unhealthy and open to abuse.
So in five years time we would like a much broader choice for businesses.
On bankers’ pay, Cable made the point that radical action is supported by people who have been right at the heart of the financial establishment – and whose own records at running firms are rather more impressive than many of those who oppose action on renumeration:
To align bankers’ interests with customers it is essential that we look at remuneration policy. After all, the best entrepreneurs – many of you in this room – often have to wait many years before being able to take money out of the firms you have founded.
This is not a call for something alien to business. It is what the late Sir Brian Pitman, the long-time chairman of Lloyds bank, believed in. He believed that his bank should be run for its shareholders. But a critical aspect of that was to have an enduring respect for customers. Let us remember that Sir Brian made his shareholders very well off – and he regarded 10 years as a sensible period for measuring shareholder value.
Financial speculation also got its round of criticism:
For those who say that by crimping the banks’ style, by stopping them indulging in short term speculation, that we are somehow damaging their shareholders’ interests, I want to know: how did short termism work out for you? A glance at the share price graphs around 2008 suggests “not very well”.
He also echoed recent comments from David Cameron and others trying to move on from the focus on cuts to talking about growth:
The difficult choices we make now will determine not only our recovery but the shape of our economy for years to come. We have good examples to follow. While the crises in Sweden and Finland in the early 1990s were just as bad as what we have gone through, they – like the Asian Tigers in the late 1990s – took a path of vigorous reform and a focus on export-led growth that has left them amongst the most competitive and successful countries. Contrast this with Japan’s experience – a long standing refusal to reform, especially the banking sector, has led to persistent stagnation.
Some of his prescriptions for growth are widely shared across the political spectrum, as when he said:
The answer is partly about fostering financial stability through Government budget discipline and giving businesses confidence to invest. It is partly about removing government imposed obstacles to growth: onerous business taxes, red tape which suffocates small firms, and a slow oppressive planning regime. But it also about government doing its job properly. Doing the jobs the market does not do by itself: education and training, infrastructure provision and basic science leading to innovation.
But more specifically he talked about a government industry policy which, unlike the dying days of the last Labour government, does not try to pick particular companies to back. But also one that is more interventionist than traditional Conservative free-marketers prefer:
I am sometimes pressed to say if I share my predecessor’s enthusiasm for active industrial intervention. I made it clear when I first took up this job that there was no money left for me to run around British businesses waving a cheque book. I can’t. And I don’t believe in “picking winners” – which is neither sensible or affordable.
But we still have choices to make: about allocating the training budget; or funding certain kinds of scientific research; or promoting science, technology, maths or engineering degrees in higher education. We have to make some strategic choices. We can’t avoid that.
And it is possible to identify sectors where Britain has developed a competitive advantage in fiercely competitive markets, as the Prime Minister alluded to earlier: advanced manufacturing; aerospace; pharmaceuticals; creative industries; professional services. Some firms have benefited from Government support; most not. We can help sectors air their concerns in a coherent way – as has happened through the Automotive Council which has done outstanding work in repatriating the vehicle supply chain.
And we are helping by supporting scientific and technical research. We have also received from the Spending Review a commitment to develop a network of innovation centres based loosely on the German Fraunhofer model. And we can support training as we are doing with boosting the number of apprenticeships.
All in all it was a very different speech from one that a Conservative Business Secretary would have delivered, but the success of the policies Vince outlines depends heavily both on negotiations within the coalition (quite what will be agreed on bankers’ pay?) and on the overall health of the economy.
3 Comments
What about regional stock exchanges?
Vince can be relied on to talk sense. Just a few points.
He asks how the banking system should look in five years’ time. Make that two years. I know the way govt works can be like watching paint dry, but we already know much the broad outlines – the point about investing for the long tems and not just speculation. As Keynes put it, “When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done.” Blair liked casinos (including the one planned for Manchester that Brown stopped) for reasons that entirely escape me, so perhaps we shouldn’t be surprised at the mess we’re in.
I would therefore like to see the govt go further against bank-enabled speculation. What about a tax on all capital used to support speculation or at risk in speculation (including when lent to third parties)? Set it at a high rate.
The proposed innovation centres are an excellent plan but I am less sure about “allocating the training budget” because this is likely to be badly done. The approach should rather be to set up a training system that people can draw on when they need it.
For example, suppose that a company setting up operations in a particular city will generate a sudden and a large demand for welders – much larger than the number of unemployeyed welders in the city. They should be able to recruit promising trainees (of any age) for training at government expense but with some key proviso. To qualify, a course must be approved, payment for the training should only be made after successful completion of each module and thre shoul dbe a split between the examiner/certifier on the one hand and providers of the course on the other. This create a market-based mechanism, pressures the company to search out those trainees with potential and avoids govt wasting large amounts of money on ill-focused schemes. It is more or less how accountancy and other successful training schemes work now.
@ John. “What about regional stock exchanges?”
This was one of the silliest policies we ever had. Why would anyone want to deal on a regional exchange with all that is implied for low liquidity and high costs etc. when within just a few minutes you can sign up with an online broker via which you can deal in London, New York, Toronto, Sydney and more from the comfort of home or office or wherever? Regional exchanges were long an Victorian/Edwardian hangover.
What we might instead do is re-examine the way the Stock Exchange works and how useful it is in its present format. Almost all its activity is gambling (see above comment) and remarkably little is raising finance for industry and then at high cost.
There is moreover a business opportunity vis a vis New York. In NY the vast majority of trades are done by high frequency trading computer programmes. The average stock is held for just 11 seconds. This is gambling taken to the extreme and works only because the gamblers have the edge on genuine investors, that is the real investers are being ripped off. Keep speculators out and make London an investors’ market that works to raise funds for firms and my guess is that both companies seeking funds and pension funds looking to invest will move their business to London.