A new year naturally focuses minds on new things and Wales has been no different in this respect. But the contrast between the official story and the reality in January has been stark…

The Bandwagon Departs

That official story began in the unusual surroundings of the Seaside Social and Labour Club in Port Talbot, which hosted the first public consultation event of the All-Wales Convention. This was a moment of such earth-shattering importance that the BBC even wheeled out Wyre Davies to cover it on the Six O’Clock News (in probably the first national news story about Welsh devolution since the Assembly elections 18 months ago). Then again, what self-respecting journalist would turn down a free curry, as offered to everyone who took part in the consultation?

The carnival will wend its way around Wales for the next six months, trailing speculation in its wake, for as the One Wales government continues to haemorrhage policies, the Convention’s verdict could be the straw that breaks its back. Only time, tide and tikka massala will tell.

L’Etat, C’est Murphy

Of course, worrying about whether there’s enough public support before changing the devolution settlement does rather depend on the existing settlement having any credibility whatsoever, and that ship sailed before the convention even got going.

For the uninitiated, the Assembly is empowered to pass measures on policy areas defined in Schedule 5 of the Government of Wales Act 2006. The Act also allows the Assembly to apply for new areas to be defined through a Legislative Competency Order (LCO, pronounced elco). The LCO process has been a bumpy road from the start, what with the rows about the complexity of the process, and the turf war between Welsh MPs and the Assembly.

The test case for the tension has been the Affordable Housing LCO, in which the Assembly is asking for powers relating to right-to-buy. MPs were concerned that the powers proposed would allow the Assembly not only to suspend right-to-buy (as the Welsh Assembly Government – or WAG – says it wants to) but to abolish it outright. AMs responded that if powers were to be devolved, they had to be devolved in full, not with speculative caveats attached.

The final compromise, announced a few days before the Convention began, took things to a whole other level. The full powers will be devolved, but the Secretary of State for Wales will retain a veto over abolition of right-to-buy, giving that office a constitutional role it has never had before. WAG views it as a meaningless gesture as it has no intention of abolishing anyway, but giving anti-devolution MP’ a way to post roadblocks could well be the thin end of the wedge.

* Gareth Aubrey is a councillor in Cardiff and blogs at Long Despairing Young Something.