Clegg: 43%
Huhne: 33%
Undecided: 24%
Voted so far: 52%
Margin of error: +/- 3.8%
Notes:
- The 56-44 lead for Clegg already reported is based on excluding the don’t knows. This is the usual method for calculating headline figures, though with such a high level of undecideds in this case the raw figures should also be looked at to understand the overall picture, especially as…
- Assuming that no-one who has voted is undecided, 50% of those who have not voted yet are undecided.
- The margin of error does not take into account any systematic sampling errors, e.g. YouGov’s Liberal Democrat members sample may (or may not) over-represent activists and therefore might not be representative of the party membership overall. And then again it might be.
- There was only one published YouGov poll in the last leadership election. It took place before Chris Huhne’s entry into the race and also took place a significant period of time before votes were cast. It therefore doesn’t provide a useful guide to how accurate or not YouGov might be this time. They have a good track-record with Conservative internal elections, but not with Labour.
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17 Comments
Humpf. YouGov didn’t ask me!
How many of those yet to vote will vote at all? What was the turnout last time around?
Turnout last time was between 70-75% IIRC. Certainly I’m among those who haven’t yet voted but who will
I have not voted yet, but soon will. I have virtually made my mind up.
I’d imagine a lot of those undecideds will end up not voting. I’ll be interested to see whether YouGov provide a breakdown of that when they release their final figures!
They may not have asked you, GrammarPolice, but they did ask me.
“Voter appeal, rather than competence or better policy programme, is key to Nick Clegg’s voting lead. Half of those polled (53%) think he has more voter-appeal than Chris Huhne who received nearly six times less votes in this area (9%).
However, more members think Huhne has a better policy programme (28% to 19%). Asked if one of the candidates is ‘significantly more competent than the other’, 60% of members say there is not much difference on competence.
Paddy Ashdown is the best Liberal Democrat leader since the party was formed, according to over half of members polled (54%); followed by Charles Kennedy (37%). Most members think Ming Campbell is the worst (55%).”
http://adamboulton.typepad.com/
Let’s be clear all YouGov polls are voodoo.
We really shouldn’t quote sampling error as you can’t have that with a panel poll – only with random sample polls.
I suspect that 650 is a very high proportion of the Lib Dems registered with YouGov and many have been with them for a while – I certainly know one or two people (some who are no longer involved in the party who joined up several years ago.
These people’s views are no longer valid in any meaningful statistical terms as they will have been ‘poisoned’ by the panel effect.
All that can be said about this poll is that around 300 people asked by YouGov have said they’re voting for Clegg and around 250 have said they’re voting for Huhne.
The other 70,000 we know nothing about.
I am so sad that Vincent Cable wouldn’t run for party leader. He’s doing so well, and it doesn’t look like that Youguv poll even mentioned him 🙁
I made a little cartoon in honour of his Mr Bean comment. I hope you like it!
If this poll is right then Chris needs win the undecideds by 2-1 inorder to win. Not impossible but very unlikely
Yes, extremely unlikely. Just wish Nick could get on with it now. This leadership election has gone on far too long and the announcement just before Christmas is stupid timing. We’ll get little coverage til early new year but at least we’ll have made the right decision.
Given recent events, and Huhne’s almost complete media whoring, Clegg had better get his face on a lot of TV screens before the polls close!
Tories are hoping sulky Cleggy gets it as we will have an easier ride. The Champers is being chilled!
I fear that Chris Huhne might be seen as too capable and ambitious, and the armchair Lib Dems will vote for Mick Clegg because they feel sorry for him!
…..or perhaps Nick has just decided to spend the last week telephone canvasssing and to leave the media stuff to his opponent?
“Given recent events, and Huhne’s almost complete media whoring,”
When’s this been – I’ve not seen or heard anything from either since the Newsnight hustings 🙂
15 – Huhne has been all over the media this week for writing to the Met asking them to investigate the Labour donations scandal.
The veracity of this poll ought to be looked at in the context of You Gov’s success at predicting the result last time.
On 26th Jan 2006 they reported that Lib Dem voters in their monthly poll split:
Hughes 23%, Campbell 22% and Huhne 13%.
On 9th Feb 2006 they reported a poll of Lib Dem members which predicted:
Huhne 32%, Campbell 29% and Hughes 23%.
I certainly won’t be betting my shirt on their advice!