There are growing signs that Donald Trump is preparing the ground for a challenge to close congressional election results in the mid-terms. Several election law experts have warned about Republican shenanigans.

Scenarios range from the  highly unlikely declaration of martial law and seizure of ballot boxes to attempts to delay certification of Democrat winners. The second possibility is regarded by most legal experts as the most likely and would be designed to influence the organisation of the House in the key early days of the next Congress.

The Republicans don’t need to challenge all the races. Only the ones where the Democrats win. The Republicans will be unchallenged—at least by Trump. And it won’t be in every seat won by the Democrat. It will be in the close races and in the districts and states where there are large immigrant communities or where there are a sizable of mail-in or absentee ballots. Trump doesn’t like those.

There are several ways that an election can be challenged. For a start, there is the recount. In some states if the difference between the two leading candidates is below a certain number than a recount is automatically called. But a losing candidate has the right to ask for a recount, especially if they believe there are irregularities in the mail-in and absentee ballots.

Recounts can be dealt with quickly. Not so easily to deal with are claims of ineligible voters or machine failures. These can take weeks of careful examination of each ballot paper.

Each state is different in how it handles elections. But in each state questions about machine failures, mail-in and absentee ballots and ineligible voters requires the losing candidate to file a lawsuit raising specific legal claims and seeking an injunction delaying certification of the election results. It is the delay that could be important.

Each lawsuit requires case notes to be written; replies to be made; suits to be filed and heard or dismissed. If they are heard it means more time and if they are dismissed—as most will be—then, based on experience of Trump’s legal tactics—the dismissal be appealed and the process starts all over again.

The tactic is not to achieve victory but to delay certification until noon on the 3rd of January 2027. That is the constitutional deadline for the winning candidate to present themselves at the House of Representatives or Senate to be sworn in and take their seat.

If the candidate is not certified by the 3rd of January, then Congress starts its business without them. This has happened before. In fact, it has happened more than 400 times since 1789. The most recent was in the 2020-21 election in New York’s 22nd District which denied that district congressional representation for over a month while Claudia Tenney and Anthony Brindisi battled in the courts.

But the 2026-27 elections are likely to be difficult because the aim of the delays will be different. They won’t be because both candidates think they won. It will be because delayed certification of a certain number of Democrat candidates serves the interests of the president and the Republican Party. This would be a completely new and dangerous constitutional problem.

If the Republicans can delay certification of enough races such that they have control of the House of Representatives on 3rd January, then they can elect a Republican—probably Mike Johnson—as Speaker. The Republican speaker can then make committee appointments based on the make-up of the House on 3rd January and rush through legislation which might not have passed with a Democrat majority.

When all the Democrats are eventually seated then can sack Johnson and elect a Democrat Speaker, probably Hakeem Jeffries. They can also re-organise the committees. Dealing with rushed legislation, however, is a bigger problem, especially if the Senate has approved it and the president has signed it into law.

It is still reasonably early in the election cycle, but all the polls indicate a Democrat victory in November. The latest issue of The Economist published a poll which gave the Democrats an 81 percent chance of winning a majority in the House and 45 percent chance of flipping the Senate. Trump’s approval ratings are tanking. His war with Iran is deeply unpopular and a growing majority think his immigration policies have gone too far.

A Democrat victory in the House would constitutionally hamstring Trump’s last two years in office. But the president—and many Republicans—have strong personal reasons for using every dirty trick available to prevent a Democrat win inn November.  There are strong indications that the Trump White House, some cabinet officers and members of the Trump family are guilty of corruption.

A Democrat-controlled House would be quick to launch a series of investigations  which could lead to a third impeachment for the president.

* Tom Arms is foreign editor of Liberal Democrat Voice. He also contributes to “The New World” magazine and lectures on world affairs. He is the author of “America Made in Britain,” two editions of “The Encyclopaedia of the Cold War” and “The Falklands Crisis.”