15 Comments

• Alex Foster 21st Dec '06 - 11:47am

  Hooray.

  I love that font. Albertus?

• meiriongwril 21st Dec '06 - 2:13pm

  Now, what would share in local by-elections look like? (I know it’s more difficult to calculate, as there’s not always all 3 main parties in each contest – but I guess it could be done).

• Bernard Salmon 21st Dec '06 - 2:40pm

  Hmm, while that is a nice statistic, let’s not forget that we’ve had just two Westminster by-elections this year, so I don’t think we can read an awful lot into it.

• Mark Pack 21st Dec '06 - 3:01pm

  Three, not two.

• H-Lad 21st Dec '06 - 3:17pm

  No wonder us LibDems get reputations for stupid and misleading bar charts with stuff like this – who has the time and effort? What nonsense! Come on guys, grow up and move on.

• Bernard Salmon 21st Dec '06 - 3:33pm

  “Three, not two.”

  Yes, sorry, but the point remains that it’s hardly a huge basis for crowing. The sooner we forget about such silly spin, the better.

• Biscit (Simon Jerram) 21st Dec '06 - 3:58pm

  Oh lighten up H-Lad!

• Alex Foster 21st Dec '06 - 5:17pm

  Now, what would share in local by-elections look like?

  ALDC do a paper each year to answer that question, but it takes a bit more work than the parliamentary by-elections. It’s also usually less conclusive.

• H-Lad 21st Dec '06 - 10:10pm

  Well said Bernard … silly spin.

• James 22nd Dec '06 - 11:58am

  A couple of people have called it “silly spin” but just hold on a moment. These by-elections were in, respectively, a Tory, Labour and Lib Dem seat. They were real votes testing opinion on who people would like to represent them on a national level.

  Mark isn’t doing a Peter Snow and saying “if this were repeated across the nation…” But it’s perfectly legitimate to point out the figures and say words to the effect “it was a very good year for the Lib Dems in parliamentary by-elections” – because it was and it is an entirely fair reposte to the “conventional wisdom” propogated by opponents on much weaker evidence that the Lib Dems are somehow going to be wished away.

• Andrea 22nd Dec '06 - 4:33pm

  “These by-elections were in, respectively, a Tory, Labour and Lib Dem seat”

  actually they were in a Tory (Bromley), Labour (Dunfermline) and Indipendent (Blaenau Gwent) seat.
  (I think the byelection in LD seat you were referring to was Cheadle. However it took place in 2005)

• hywelmorgan 22nd Dec '06 - 6:39pm

  By-election statistics (both local and national) are a valid tool in assesssing support changes. However you need to factor in that we – more the the other parties – put an effort into by-elections we wouldn’t put into a normal election.

  The obvious example is a by-election in a safe Labour council seat which we don’t reckon we can win. At a normal election we probably wouldn’t do anything more than stand a candidate. In a by-election even if not putting in a serious effort we’d put out a leaflet or two in at least some bits – to show willing if nothing else.

  That would have the effect of upping our support slightly.

  Therefore I’ve always been of the view that our “stand-still” point when looking at by-elections is actually a couple of points higher than the last time they were fought.

• Anonymous 22nd Dec '06 - 7:00pm

  Tories take control of Basingstoke and Deane Borough Council

  Publisher: Pam Caulfield
  Published: 22/12/2006 – 10:23:00 AM Printable version
  Send to a friend

  By-election success for the
  Tories Tories gained overall control of Basingstoke and Deane Borough Council in Hampshire, winning a landslide by-election victory in a traditional Labour stronghold.

  Candidate Robert Taylor took a Buckskin seat to give his party 30 councillors compared with 29 for the combined total of other parties and independents.

  However there is one vacant Tory seat.

  This is the first Conservative council by-election gain from Labour since the end of May.

  The by-election was caused by the resignation of Labour’s former group leader David Potter.

  It was originally thought that there would not be a contest under what is known as the sixth-month rule because the seat is up for election next May.

  However, a closer examination of rules showed the vacancy had occurred before the critical deadline.

  Analysis of nine comparable by-elections in December suggests a projected 14.6% nationwide Tory lead over Labour.

  A calculation based on four wards where all three parties fought both times gives a projected line-up of: C 43.4%, Lab 28.1%, Lib Dem 21.5%.

  There are barely four months until May’s marathon mid-term English council, Scottish Parliament and Welsh Assembly contests, likely to be the last under Tony Blair’s leadership.

  RESULT: Basingstoke and Deane Borough – Buckskin: C 332, Lab 210, Lib Dem 123, Green 40. (June 2004 – Lab 384, C 251, Ind 152). C gain from Lab. Swing 17.1% Lab to C.

  Copyright Press Association 2006

• Dan 23rd Dec '06 - 12:55am

  The others of course scored 31%…

• meiriongwril 27th Dec '06 - 12:48am

  Aren’t people who post to sites like this yet keep themselves “anonymous” somewhat pathetic? Do they think the hoards of the 1960s YL Red Guards are going to hobble around and put the boot in, or what?
  Grow up anonymous or find someone else to annoy….