A final look back at the Euro polls

Today is (in case you hadn’t realised) polling day – for much of England that means local elections, for everyone it means European elections – which means it’s our last chance to look at the polls for the Euros, and try and make some sense of them. There have been 11 polls in the last month asking voters to say which party they’ll choose on 4th June:

Here they are in chronological order:

>> Con 37%, Lab 22%, Lib Dem 19%, Ukip 7%, Green 4%, BNP 4%, Nats 5% (YouGov certain to vote, 10th May)
>> Con 34%, Lab 25%, Lib Dem 20%, Ukip 6%, Green 5%, BNP 2% (Populus, 13th May)
>> Con 28%, Lab 19%, Lib Dem 19%, Ukip 19%, Green 6%, BNP 3% 9% (YouGov certain to vote, 15th May)
>> Con 28%, Lab 23%, Lib Dem 14%, Ukip 15%, Green 11%, BNP 4% (ComRes, 17th May)
>> Con 26%, Lab 21%, Lib Dem 14%, Ukip 16%, Green 7%, BNP ?% (YouGov, 18th May)
>> Con 30%, Lab 24%, Lib Dem 18%, Ukip 10%, Green 9%, BNP 1% (ICM, 22nd May)
>> Con 27%, Lab 17%, Lib Dem 15%, Ukip 16%, Green 9%, BNP 7% (YouGov, 29th May)
>> Con 30%, Lab 16%, Lib Dem 12%, Ukip 19%, Green 10%, BNP 5% (Populus, 30th May)
>> Con 29%, Lab 17%, Lib Dem 20%, Ukip 10%, Green 11%, BNP 5% (ICM, 31st May)
>> Con 26%, Lab 16%, Lib Dem 15%, Ukip 18%, Green 10%, BNP 5% (YouGov, 2nd June)

For what it’s worth (which, frankly, isn’t much statistically speaking, but might be fortuitously close to the mark), this gives us a polling average for the parties of:

Con 30%, Lab 19%, Lib Dem 16%, Ukip 14%, Green 8%, BNP 4%

The incalculables of today’s elections are legion: the fact that much of England is going to the polls for simultaneous local elections will likely affect differential turnout, and result in much ‘split voting’; the expenses scandal might result in increased (or decreased) turnout, or make no difference; the ‘wildcards’ of Ukip, Green and BNP votes might wreak havoc with ‘normal’ general election intentions; etc.

My best (and boring) guess is that the Tories will poll a little under 30%, and that it’s a complete toss-up for second place between Labour, Lib Dems and Ukip, with the minor possibility that the Greens might pull a rabbit out of the hat.

The latest numbers have been fed into Predict09.eu‘s machine, and they are estimating the following results for the UK (seat numbers are in brackets, but bear in mind that the UK loses six of its 78 seats owing to EU expansion since 2004):

Con 28% (24 MEPs, -3 on 2004)
Lab 18% (15 MEPs, -4)
Ukip 16% (10 MEPs, -2)
Lib Dem 15% (10 MEPs, -2)
Green 11% (6 MEPs, +4)
BNP 5% (0 MEPs, n/c)
SNP 2% (3 MEPs, +1)
Plaid 1% (1 MEP, n/c)
N. Ireland parties (3 MEPs, n/c)

We’ll know how accurate the prediction is come Sunday night…

Read more by or more about or .
This entry was posted in Polls.
Advert

One Comment

  • I do fear that unless Labour comes about 5th then it’ll be portrayed as some sort of triumph. Then again, that’ll mean he stays for another year, and Labour might be in asterisk territory by then.

Post a Comment

Lib Dem Voice welcomes comments from everyone but we ask you to be polite, to be on topic and to be who you say you are. You can read our comments policy in full here. Please respect it and all readers of the site.

If you are a member of the party, you can have the Lib Dem Logo appear next to your comments to show this. You must be registered for our forum and can then login on this public site with the same username and password.

To have your photo next to your comment please signup your email address with Gravatar.

Your email is never published. Required fields are marked *

*
*
Please complete the name of this site, Liberal Democrat ...?

Advert



Recent Comments

  • User AvatarIan Patterson 13th Dec - 12:28pm
    There will be a number of painful inquests to be had from last night. One which is springing from the comments on this thread, assumes...
  • User AvatarJohn Kelly 13th Dec - 12:25pm
    I agree with those who suggest we shouldn't rush to judgement or be looking for scapegoats. My reflections this morning have been on what could...
  • User Avatarmarcstevens 13th Dec - 12:22pm
    Yes I don't know why the areas with gains in the local elections were not given much extra support. It makes sense be build the...
  • User AvatarRoland 13th Dec - 12:21pm
    @Peter - Increases in sea level due to warming depend on... I see from your list you omitted land heave/crust displacement, another factor not taken...
  • User Avatarexpats 13th Dec - 12:18pm
    As someone in his late 70's I've watched the 'political and social awareness' of the British public plummet. Anyone watching media interviews with the electorate...
  • User AvatarDan 13th Dec - 12:08pm
    I let my membership lapse after the article 50 shambles. I will reapply shortly. In Kettering I got one leaflet towards the end of the...
Tue 7th Jan 2020