ALDC by-election report, 6th July 2023

There were 3 principal council by-elections this week. One on Tuesday and two more on Thursday.

We start off with the fantastic Liberal Democrat win in Maidstone Central ward on Kent County Council. In a super-marginal ward, newly elected Councillor Chris Passmore and the Lib Dem team were able to fight off strong challenge from the Green Party.

Congratulations to Chris and the team for such a hard-fought and well-deserved win. It was very close with just 11 votes in it. Every door knocked on, and every bit of literature delivered really counted!

The campaign also received a fighting fund grant from ALDC. Congratulations again to the team in Kent.

Kent CC, Maidstone Central
Liberal Democrat (Chris Passmore): 1,860 [28.5%, -5%]
Green Party: 1,849 [28.4%, +9.3%]
Conservative: 1,564 [24%, -5.8%]
Labour: 914 [14%, -7%]
Reform: 278 [4.3%, +4.3%]
Independent: 56 [0.9%, +0.9%]

Also on Thursday Labour took East Kilbride West ward off the SNP on South Lanarkshire Council. Thank you to Jake Stevenson for standing and giving voters a Lib Dem choice in the election – and for increasing the Lib Dem share of the vote too.

South Lanarkshire Council, East Kilbride West
Labour Party: 1,386 [40.3%, 13.7%}
Conservative: 904 (26.3%, +6.3%]
SNP: 778 [22.6%, -8.3%]
Green Party: 131 [3.8%, +3.8%]
Independent: 99 [2.9%, +2.9%]
Liberal Democrats (Jake Stevenson): 83 [2.4%, +0.3%]
Scottish Family Party: 42 [1.2%, -0.4%]

There was also a Tuesday by-election this week in Kings Hedge’s ward on Cambridge City Council. We would like to say a huge thank you to Jamie Dalzell for standing and fighting such a strong campaign in the area. Thanks to his efforts, and the Lib Dem team in Cambridge, we increased our vote share by 8.5% and came without a couple of hundred votes of winning. A strong by-election result can truly develop a ward as a prospect for future elections.

In the end the Conservatives gained the seat from Labour.

Cambridge City Council, Kings Hedge’s
Conservative: 622 [35%, +3%]
Labour: 598 [33.5%, -11%]
Liberal Democrat (Jamie Dalzell): 418 [23.5%, +8.5%]
Green Party: 142 [8%, -6%]

A full summary of all results can be found on the ALDC by-elections page here.

* Charles Quinn is Campaigns Organiser for ALDC and a local councillor in Hull.

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7 Comments

  • Ian Patterson 8th Jul '23 - 9:49am

    Didn’t our Maidstone colleagues not notice the green surge here. We were within 6 votes of losing the seat. The greens are now moving into seats we are meant to be targeting like Maidstone.

  • Maidstone result is really a gain as we were second last time in a two seat ward.
    Greens have been polling well since May, we have got to have a strategy to deal with them otherwise destiny will be theirs not ours.

  • Jason Connor 8th Jul '23 - 5:40pm

    They’re picking up votes off labour too. Many upper middle class voters, people with wealth power and privilege where I live, now support them. If this party had any sense they need to target their appeal more to working class voters in these areas.

  • When canvassing and talking to Green and Labour leaning voters in Somerton and Frome over the weekend both groups were in general very ready to be persuaded to “vote tactically”. This is one of the reasons everybody who can get there should go and help in the eight days left including poling day . Another great Parliamentary byelection win will do more for our prospects than great deal of campaigning elsewhere.

  • Kevin Hawkins 11th Jul '23 - 8:00am

    For a longer term view – The data for the last fifty local by-elections to the end of June is as follows. (The equivalent data for the fifty by-elections up to the end of May is given in brackets).

    Lib Dem vote share is at its highest in these tables since April 2022. Contrary to several comments made above there is no evidence of a Green advance – they are below their peak of 12.5% in July 2021.

    Conservatives 31.2% (32.9%)
    Labour 30.6% (29.4%)
    Liberal Democrats 21.9% (19.8%)
    Greens 8.3% (8.3%)
    Others 7.9% (9.7%)

    Gains and losses are:
    Lib Dems: Net gain of six: 8 gains, 7 held, 2 lost
    Labour: Net gain of two: 4 gains, 26 held, 2 lost
    Greens: Net gain of two: 3 gains, 0 held, 1 lost
    Independents: Net gain of two: 2 gains, 1 held, 0 lost
    Our West Lancs: No change: 3 held
    Plaid Cymru: No change: 0 gains, 1held, 0 lost
    UKIP: Net loss of one: 0 gains, 0 held, 1 lost
    Conservatives: Net loss of eleven 0 gains, 10 held, 11 lost

    Labour won 30 seats, Conservatives 10, Liberal Democrats 15, Independents 3, Green 3, Others 4.
    (The numbers do not add up to 50 as there were multiple vacancies in some wards)

    This data is for the most recent 50 by-elections in England & Wales (9th March to 29th June). Parish/Town councils are not included.

  • Paul Barker 11th Jul '23 - 1:41pm

    Thanks to Kevin Hawkins for those fascinating statistics – its interesting that over much the same period our National Opinion Poll ratings have gone down – a reminder that figures for smaller Parties are not reliable.

  • @ Kevin Hawkins, “This data is for the most recent 50 by-elections in England & Wales (9th March to 29th June)”.

    Have you got any stats for Scotland, Kevin ?

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