This week, there were ten by-elections, of which two were on Tuesday. Three by-elections did not have a Liberal Democrat candidate.
Congratulations to Councillor Jan Goffey and the local Liberal Democrat team for gaining a seat in Devon, despite beginning from a standing start. We were able to secure a decisive victory, whilst both the Conservatives and an independent were vying for second place.
West Devon BC, Okehampton South
Liberal Democrats (Jan Goffey): 356 (57.1%, new)
Conservative: 152 (24.4%, -5.9)
Independent: 116 (18.6%, – 17.0)
Liberal Democrat GAIN from Green Party
Turnout: 22%
Congratulations are also due to Councillor Martin Redman and the local team, who were able to gain a seat off the Conservatives in Surrey. Meanwhile, Reform UK were able to secure a convincing second place, well ahead of the Conservatives who finished third.
Tandridge DC, Westway
Liberal Democrats (Martin Redman): 539 (42.3%, -0.6)
Reform UK: 420 (33.0%, new)
Conservative: 202 (15.9%, -13.3)
Labour: 112 (8.8%, -19.1)
Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative
Turnout: 25%
Commiserations to Stephen Walkney and the local team in Harborough, who were able to improve on their vote share. Despite this, Reform UK ultimately won this seat, whilst we came a close second place against the Conservatives.
Harborough DC, Fleckney
Reform UK: 551 (35.0%, new)
Liberal Democrats (Stephen Walkley): 453 (28.7%, +2.1)
Conservative: 416 (26.4%, -6.0)
Green Party: 102 (6.5%, -6.2)
Labour: 54 (3.4%, -11.6)
Reform UK GAIN from Conservative
Turnout: 32%
In Scotland, the SNP fought off a close challenge from Reform UK to gain this seat from Labour. Thank you to Jill Reilly and the local team for flying the Liberal Democrat flag.
Fife Council, Buckhaven, Methil and Wemyss Villages
First Preferences:
SNP: 1,594 (42.5%, -5.0)
Reform UK: 1,080 (28.8%, new)
Labour: 778 (20.7%, -19.6)
Liberal Democrats (Jill Reilly): 99 (2.6%, +0.3)
Alba: 83 (2.2%, +0.9)
Conservative: 64 (1.7%, -4.8)
Sovereignty: 54 (1.4%, new)
SNP GAIN from Labour
Elected at Stage 6
Turnout: 27.3%
In Newark, Reform UK were able to secure a close-fought victory against the Conservatives. Thank you to Alla Musson and the local team for flying the Liberal Democrat flag.
Newark and Sherwood DC, Castle
Reform UK: 204 (29.0%, new)
Conservative: 193 (27.4%, -4.0)
Labour: 88 (12.5%, -21.3)
Independent: 74 (10.5%, new)
Liberal Democrats (Alla Musson): 70 (9.9%, new)
Green Party: 61 (8.7%, new)
Independent: 14 (2.0%, new)
Reform UK GAIN from Independent
Turnout: 26.54%
An independent candidate was able to secure an overwhelming victory in Derbyshire, whilst Reform UK were in a distant second place. Thank you to Ben Hayes and the local team for flying the Liberal Democrat flag.
South Derbyshire DC, Seales
Independent: 713 (55.7%, +4.4)
Reform UK: 309 (24.1%, new)
Conservative: 109 (8.2%, -14.1)
Labour: 82 (6.4%, -20.0)
Liberal Democrats (Ben Hayes): 72 (5.6%, new)
Independent GAIN from Labour
Turnout: 30%
In Tandridge, the residents association were able to secure a solid win, whilst Reform UK were left behind in second place. Thank you to Dave Wilkes and the local team for flying the Liberal Democrat flag.
Tandridge DC, Lingfield and Crowhurst
Lingfield and Crowhurst Residents: 457 (38.0%, +3.2)
Reform UK: 329 (27.3%, new)
Independent: 158 (13.1%, new)
Conservative: 128 (10.6%, -1.3)
Liberal Democrats (Dave Wilkes): 90 (7.5%, -1.4)
Labour: 42 (3.5%, -13.4)
Residents HOLD
Turnout: 28%
Here are the results for the three by-elections this week without a Liberal Democrat candidate.
Burnley BC, Queensgate
Independent (Parvez): 679 (55.7%, new)
Reform UK: 240 (19.7%, new)
Labour: 133 (10.9%, -9.1)
Green: 71 (5.8%, new)
Independent (Mokhammad): 52 (4.3%, new)
Conservative: 43 (3.5%, -7.2)
Independent GAIN from Labour
Turnout: 27.23%
Burnley BC, Lanehead
Independent: 706 (44.4%, new)
Reform UK: 510 (32.1%, new)
Labour: 262 (16.5%, -25.9)
Conservative: 61 (3.8%, -11.6)
Green: 50 (3.1%, new)
Independent GAIN from Labour
Turnout: 34%
Newark and Sherwood DC, Balderton North and Coddington
Reform UK: 545 (42.0%, new)
Conservative: 480 (37.0%, +1.6)
Green Party: 173 (13.3%, new)
Labour: 101 (7.8%, -10.3)
Reform UK GAIN from Independent
Turnout: 25.26%
Thank you to all of our candidates, agents, and campaign teams. A full summary of these results, and all other principal council by-elections, can be found on the ALDC by-elections page here.
* Liam Yip is the Campaigns and Communications Intern at ALDC
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Here is my regular monthly data for the last fifty local by-elections up to the end of October. Problems with my computer mean that this is a week late so does not include this week’s results.
Percentage Vote Share:
Reform UK 27.62%, Liberal Democrats 24.74%, Conservatives 17.43%, Labour 13.49%, Greens 9.48%, Others 7.23%.
Lib Dems are back in second place for the first time since August.
Labour’s share of the vote is at an all-time low, being slightly down on last month. Also the two “major” parties combined vote of 30.92% is a record low. (My data goes back to the 1970s).
Gains and losses are:
Reform: Net gain of sixteen: 17 gains, 2 held, 1 lost
Lib Dems: Net gain of eleven: 12 gains, 8 held, 1 lost
Greens: No change: 1 gain, 2 held, 1 lost
Others: Net loss of one: 1 gain, 0 held, 2 lost
Independents: Net loss of five: 1 gain, 0 held, 6 lost
Conservatives: Net loss of seven: 2 gains, 3 held, 9 lost
Labour: Net loss of fourteen: 0 gains, 3 held, 14 lost
The Lib Dem’s net gain of 11 is the highest since January 2024’s net gain of 13 (which was an all-time record).
Seats Won:
Liberal Democrats won 20 seats, Reform 19, Conservatives 5, Labour 3, Greens 3, Independents 1, Others 1
(This does not total 50 because of a triple vacancy in one ward).
The above data is for the most recent 50 by-elections in England & Wales (21st August to 30th October 2025). Parish/Town councils are not included.
Kevin Hawkins comment demonstrates the weird mismatch between The Opinion Polls & actual Votes cast in real Elections.
In The Polls Reform continue their slow decline from their September peak. Averaged out, Reform are losing around 1% every 3 Weeks; slow but there are still nearly 6 Months to The Local Elections & 4 Years to the next General Election.
Doesn’t all this show how irresponsible the media are, such as the BBC, that Lib Dems are too often ignored? The BBC were supposed when set up to inform people, not respond simply to populist feelings.
@paul barker
The mismatch between local by elections and opinion polls is much more likely a factor of which sorts of places are holding by elections than any issue with the polling. Local by elections disproportionately take place in two tier authorities since they have allot more councillors, and these are the sorts of places where we do well.
In particular the Green parties recent overtaking of us is likely coming from votes in urban areas, especially in London; and it’s now close enough to the next elections there that councilors looking to quit are now likely to hang on until then.
David Le Grice makes a very plausible suggestion that the smaller non-metropolitan districts, where we do well and where there are more councillors and hence more by-elections, has a disproportionate effect on the overall totals.
However, looking at the data this does not seem to be true. These smaller councils accounted for 22 out of the 50 included in my last post. The percentage share in these councils was Reform 28.67% and Lib Dems 25.02%.
The percentage share in the 28 larger councils (unitary councils, London boroughs, etc) was Reform 27.11% and Lib Dems 24.61%. i.e. not a lot of difference.
This surprised me as I instinctively thought David was right.
It’s now close enough to London Borough elections that there won’t be a bye-election even if they quit.
@Kevin Hawkins
While your vote share data is useful – thanks for doing the work – it will also mean that by-elections in areas/wards with larger electorates will distort the percentages when we are trying to compare the aggregated vote share with national opinion polls. Have you ever considered averaging the percentages of the vote each party has achieved rather than adding up the raw vote totals and converting each to a percentage? (Assuming that is not what you currently do …)
Very interesting by election on Thursday at Long Ashton, North Somerset. Since 2019 been 2 seats held by a Lib Dem and Green.
The Green seat is vacant. What will happen with the two competing.
Be a good judge of the Green surge in some polls.
@Jenny Smith
The trouble with averaging the votes in the way you suggest is that it would disproportionately bias towards small wards. I believe that the method I use is fairer and its value comes not from the numbers that I report each month but from how they change from month to month. I would not claim that if a party is currently at 25% in local elections that will correspond to 25% in a general election.
What my methodology does do is track historical trends realistically. The rise and subsequent decline of UKIP and the BNP a few years ago, the collapse of the Lib Dem vote during the coalition years and our subsequent recovery, and the recent rise of Reform UK are all reflected in my monthly tables which go back many decades.
Opinion polls are the main alternative way to measure party performance but they also have difficulties. There is no way of knowing for certain that asking people how they would vote in a hypothetical general election that isn’t actually happening is accurate. At least my methodology looks at real votes in real elections.
I think the way this weeks results are reported flatter us a bit. The Tandridge DC, Westway is described as a gain from Tories but in reality while replacing a Tory Councillor the election last time had a win with both of our Candidates in a three seat ward. If we had put up three candidates then we would won all three. So not really a gain. Similarly in West Devon what is down as a gain from Green is in reality a hold for Lib Dem/Green as last time there was no Lib Dem and this time no Green. (Someone might be able to give the background to this.
Of the other results there was no Lib Dem presence except for Harborough DC, Fleckney which (at least in hindsight) looked a good prospect. Did the team think so in advance?