The Independent has run an interview today with Jeremy Corbyn, outlining the Labour leader’s strategy moving forward – including his pledge that Labour MPs would back a dissolution of Parliament and an early General Election. I was previously a real supporter of an early General Election. Ultimately, I question Theresa May’s ability to hold her own party together through the Brexit negotiations, and I also think that it would provide an opportunity for the process to be amended or slowed by the more progressive forces within our country. This said – we need to be careful what we wish for.
My partner and I were having a conversation the other day, where I was ranting on about how it would all be wonderful – we Liberal Democrats would gain seats from the Conservatives in some of our former heartlands (it wouldn’t take a miracle for seats like Bath and Yeovil in the South West and seats like Twickenham to fall our way in London, for example) and we’d be able to pull the brakes on Brexit. But there’s another more worrying possibility that I’d like to let you into.
So, it’s Friday 3rd of March and we’re all still up, having sat there throughout the night as results have poured in. Things aren’t quite as we’d hoped, and we have that nagging feeling that we had in June, and that many of us had in November when Hillary Clinton was beaten by the blonde-haired Wotsit – the feeling of the ground slipping away from underneath you, and the feeling that you don’t really know your own neighbours any more. Yes, the Liberal Democrats have gained a lot of seats, maybe fifty or sixty, and that’s a good showing. But that isn’t the concern, because this is no victory for Liberalism. In former Labour heartland seats, where industry left thirty years ago to be replaced by absolutely nothing, an angry electorate, which flexed its muscles in the European referendum has elected a rash of UKIP MPs. There aren’t hundreds, but there might be fifty or more. The seeds of their victories have been sewn over generations – not because Labour isn’t tough enough on immigration, but because Labour said that it stood for the working man but now they’re seen to stand for nobody. When voters have looked to the Parliamentary Labour Party for cues that they can be trusted, that they have even basic competence when it comes to Government, they’ve seen Shadow Ministers resigning, pitiful performances at PMQs and Jeremy Corbyn pretending not to be able to find a seat on a train when plenty of seats were available, and then squirming for what felt like days when he got found out.
In the South West, the LibDems have had a resurgence – even in seats that narrowly voted Leave, the extremist agenda forced through by Theresa May and her UKIP leaning back-benchers has worried moderate voters who want the best for their family, but who won’t want to be Turkeys voting for Christmas. This effect leaves Theresa May’s administration withered but not dead – they’re still the largest party, in a parliament where no one force holds overall control. Mrs May makes clear that given the result, her role has to be to form a coalition in the national interest. While the last coalition was formed in the hope of staving off financial ruin and providing stability, this one is cobbled together to have enough votes and support to finish the work of Brexit.
You can see, therefore, how, just as it seemed unthinkable that Trump would end up moving a few doors down at Pennsylvania Avenue – you don’t need too many leaps of faith to arrive at a position where Nigel Farage holds all the cards in a time of national crisis.
It’s often accepted that Theresa May might look to increase her majority if she went to the people today. Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour party provides such pathetic opposition and such weak leadership, that they look to become a rump at the next election. But, what if Mrs May is keeping her powder dry? What if her best guess suggests that in the Labour industrial heartlands, a quiet revolution is brewing, and UKIP would look to gain huge ground – something largely undetected by the polls. What if, on balance, Mrs May is attempting to carry on because she prefers the devil she knows, rather than the one that could be unleashed?
Depressing reading, eh? I don’t mean to put a downer on things at Christmas – but as we approach the turning of the year, we’d be stupid to move ahead and not learn the lessons of the past twelve months. I’m not saying that the UK is the same as the Weimar Republic – I don’t mean to harbour fear or angst. But as we move into next year, we need to work in the interests of our party, but also in the interests of our country. Everything we’ve fought for over our party’s proud history is at risk. If you think a Tory and UKIP coalition would think twice about dismantling the NHS even further, you’re mistaken. If you think they’d worry whatsoever about yanking us out of the European Convention on Human Rights – you’re wrong. And, if you think the Tories wouldn’t go straight into coalition with UKIP in a bid to stay in control and ‘mitigate’ them – you may well have another thing coming.
We might hope for an early General Election, because we can look to gain seats and build a stronger standing for ourselves, but be careful what you wish for, because things don’t always work out how you’d hoped. Unless we’re somehow in a position to build a truly national campaign, where we hold the popular centre ground, we should move ahead with caution.
Finally, a plea to Labour members. I’m not going to ask you to join the Liberal Democrats (although of course, you’d be welcomed), I’m asking you to forget the talk of a ‘progressive case for ending freedom of movement’, forget getting mugs printed with how tough you’re going to be on immigration – you’re falling into a trap that has been set by the right wing to ensnare you. Instead, go back to basics. The Labour Party was built as a progressive force in communities up and down the country – yet your by-election campaigns suggest a real divide between the party and the people they seek to represent. If the turning point election is coming, no number of billboards will make the difference. Instead, we progressives must all do the same thing – go out into our communities and win one heart and one mind at a time. The next election, whenever it occurs, will be the most important of our generation. Will we move forward, carrying those weaker than us forward too, in the firm belief that we are a nation of constituent parts that stands together, united and strong while the storm rages on? Or will we allow ourselves to falter in the face of a growing nationalism that threatens the peace and prosperity of our country and our continent?
It is the question of our time.
* Sam Phripp is a District Councillor from Frome in Somerset. He blogs at www.sosamsaid.blogspot.com
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22 Comments
There is a lot to agree with, with this article.
I do believe though that there is an element of inevitability with what is to come with the Labour Party, the next general election and another stronger Tory Government.
It’s like a nail quick, you know it is going to be painful, but you just have to get it over with as quickly as possible, Rip it off, scream a little and then get on with the healing process.
The same is true with the Labour party. Things are not going to change in the Labour Party until Corbyn loses a General Election. Is it best therefore to get it over and done with as soon as possible or wait until the 2020 election?
personally, I think it is best to get it over with asap if there was an opportunity for an early general election. If the next election is not until 2020, it will be another 3 years of Labour getting weaker and weaker and less relevant, UKIP will be the party to benefit the most from Labour’s demise in the North.
Come 2020, Conservatives will stomp to victory with an increased majority. Corbyn will be disposed of and it will take another 2 parliamentary cycles for Labour to turn things around and get it’s act together with any chance of winning an election.
The problem with this article is, is it seems to suggest that Labour Supporters should abandon there want for leaving the EU and should put that aside in favour of National politics and stopping the Tories.
That is not going to happen, a lot of people who voted to leave the EU, did so passionately because they believe leaving the EU is the right thing to do for themselves and for their country, they would be prepared to see another Tory Administration or a Tory / UKIP coalition in order to make sure that we leave the EU.
I do not think LD’s get that at all.
I’m not convinced that an early general election would result in the UKIP landslide that this article suggests, especially not from northern Labour seats. More likely, there would be an increase in the Tory majority and a certain Brexit.
In the 69 constituencies in which UKIP gained more than 20% of the vote in 2015, only 39 were Labour-facing; voters in these constituencies voted Labour by an average of over 47%. A Lab/UKIP swing of such mammoth proportions – and more, if it is believed that it will get “fifty or more” seats – seems unlikely, especially given recent polls and council by-election results. Indeed, if I remember correctly, not a single projection (published on Britain Elects) of how recent poll averages would translate in the new proposed 600 constituencies – not a single projection – has indicated that UKIP would win any seat at all. Compounded by UKIP’s plummeting membership (or so some anecdotal evidence from Twitter users suggests), its heavily-bruised finances and the relative newness of Mr. Nuttall, the likelihood of even single-digit UKIP seats in an early general election is low.
More likely, any early general election will be called on the pretext that the ‘establishment elites’ of Labour, SNP and Liberal Democrat MPs have frustrated the democratic Brexit process. The big swings will be Tory blue and not purple. UKIP and the Conservatives won’t form an electoral alliance: the Tories don’t need one, and it would be too provocative against more moderate Conservatives anyway. The need to write a Conservative manifesto could, however, potentially widen splits in the Conservatives – leading to defections if these become sufficiently great. The most likely outcome is probably an increased Conservative majority – and an increased likelihood of a [hard] Brexit. There will probably be a rise in the number of Liberal Democrat MPs, but the boundary reforms and the fact that the Remain vote was much softer than the Leave vote will work against the Lib Dems gaining any more than 15 to 40 seats.
Yes, an early general election is hence likely to be to the benefit of the Liberal Democrats – but not to the benefit of Lib Dem policies, especially not to the benefit of a soft or no Brexit. The article raises an important point in making this distinction, but I think we ought not to overplay the UKIP threat, even if there is a seismic shift in British politics like an early general election.
An Election held in the next couple of years would result in a Tory landslide on little more than a third of the votes. Labour would be reduced to a rump, probably less than 100 MPs & we havent recovered anywhere near the point when we can replace them. In an Election soon I would expect us to get a dozen MPs.
Its important that we stress that an Election now would be even less “Democratic” than usual. Luckily, thanks to the hard work of our Team in The Coalition, trying to call an Election early is a very high risk move. Failure would be quite likely,( why would Labour MPs vote to go on the dole ?) & would mean the end of Mays career.
@Paul Barker
” Labour would be reduced to a rump, probably less than 100 MPs & we havent recovered anywhere near the point when we can replace them”
I agree that Labour would be dramatically reduced but I think 100 MP’s is a bit far fetched though by any stretch of the imagination, especially if an early election is fought on existing boundaries.
With regards to the Liberal Democrats recovering to a point where you can replace Labour…. I don’t think that is ever going to happen, even if Labour where to split between the 2 fractions of the party and a new splinter party emerges, Liberal Democrats are never likely going to have the numbers to become the 2nd largest party and the official opposition.
Liberal democrats destroyed their opportunity during the coalition years when they failed to differentiate themselves from the Tories and became nodding toys under the pretence of cabinet responsibility. It will take decades to undo that stigma.
You may well make a recovery in local elections, but I highly doubt LD’s will ever get near national government again, especially without some kind of PR and the way the party handled the coalition years, I doubt the country will ever go for a change to the voting system..
When has Labour said it is against the feee movement of people?
Are we so quickly and so lightly to throw away the parliamentary reform we achieved in coalition; the fixed term parliament? No doubt Corbyn would welcome a trip to the polls before his party slides even further into chaos. Maybe May could be tempted to seek to make tactical use of UKIP to push Brexit through quickly, but in both cases we see shorttermism at work yet again, something we fought to get away from.
Taking the broad thrust of Sam Phipps provocative comments, I find it hard to believe that a general election in May 2017 wou.d bring anything other than an increased Tory majority and a swing to the right in terms of greater UKIP representation in the House of Commons. I do believe we would probably gain about 10 seats, maybe 15 and clearly increase our influence in forming future policy.
The Labour Party would be the big loser as we expect squeezed from both the right and the general feeling of their irrelevance under Corbyn.
But my fear is not from the composition of the next Parliament per se, but the fact there will be even more people disillusioned by the political process especially on the left. We are in danger of ignoring the Corbynista/Bernie Sanders groupings of young, articulate voters who see little prospect through the usual channels brought about by a combination of the changing demographics, automation, the widening of the gap between rich and poor in terms of both income and wealth and the squandering of the world’s resources and the continued domination of the philosophy that “markets are always right”.
Our type of economics, trying to moderate the worst aspects of capitalism have failed over 40 years. From Fred Hirsh’s famous book “The Social Limits to Growth” published in the 1980s to Will Hutton espousing the same causes with his multitude of publications today, and with George Monbiot pointing out the vagaries of short- termism is more evidence on the devasting effect on the climate all indicate Market Failure writ large.
Globalism, multinationals and cartel arrangements have all driven nails into the coffin of capitalism in the eyes of the young and leave the prospect of global warming wiping out any prospects for the next generation aspiring to their dreams.
The essays in our famous Orange Book don’t really address these issues and we need to wake up. I confess I am male, pale and stale – MPS – which Simon Jenkins recently turned round to PSMs – in his Guardian article – so I will not be in the vanguard of this research needed to embrace this thinking but beware this backlash.
I love the Liberal Democrats and will support them but let’s ensure that we get the underlying philosophy and ideology on side to equip us to meet our Core Values as published on our Membership Card in the years to come.
@Jefferson Horsley
“… the widening of the gap between rich and poor in terms of both income and wealth…”
I rather think that, on a global level, there has been a narrowing of the gap between rich and poor over the last 40 years. A lot of that is thanks to globalisation.
Unless we think that us “pale” citizens of the West have some sort of divine right to be better off than most people in the world, surely that’s a good thing. Which isn’t to say that it doesn’t present political challenges in the West.
Ian Hurdley 24th Dec ’16 – 7:42am……..Are we so quickly and so lightly to throw away the parliamentary reform we achieved in coalition; the fixed term parliament? No doubt Corbyn would welcome a trip to the polls before his party slides even further into chaos……….
IMO,one of the most disastrous things for this party, and that is saying something, to come from the Tory ‘coalition’ was the fixed term parliament…..It tied our leadership into supporting more and more illiberal policies which, with each passing year, further eroded the electorates trust in us as a party…As each Cameron promise disappeared, as each Osborne budget unravelled our leaders were unable to say, “NO!”…
Corbyn doesn’t want an early election; why would he? His best bet is to watch ‘Brexit’ negotiations divide and tear the Tory party apart….However, when asked he has to say, “Bring it on!” any other response would give the tabloids even more of a field-day…
The whole article seems to be based on the “Fungi are poisonous; mushrooms are fungi, etc.” premise…
There isn’t going to be an early general election because if there was Theresa May would be forced to reveal something of substance about the Conservative Party’s post-Brexit plans – and there aren’t any. Even with our right-wing, Brexit-slavering press she wouldn’t be able to get away with meaningless rubbish like Brexit means Brexit, and a red white and blue Brexit, for three weeks of a general election campaign and she knows it.
@Simon Shaw
I agree with your comments – I should have qualified it by stating the Western version of Capitalism – although the signs of inequality are already chronic in the Asian Economies
Matt: Will it really take decades for the Liberal Democrats to overcome the stigma of the coalition years ? There has already been the start of a recovery only a year after the 2015 election so a few years should be enough. People have short memories and new issues have and will arise that could encourage people to rethink their political allegiance or voting plans. I think it will possibly take longer if ever for them to recover the default position of being the party over 50% would vote for if they thought they could win but maybe that is not such a bad thing. 50% is not needed to win in a first past the post voting system anyway – about 33% would do if concentrated in certain areas. I do not see UKIP making that much progress but nor do I see Labour collapsing.The Copeland by election should give us a clue but the Cumbria voters have been gradually shifting to the Conservatives for some time – former rock solid Labour seats now have narrow majorities. Maybe the demography has changed in that area.
In the North and Midlands Labour still seems to be holding up – if the bottom has fallen out of your economy why would you vote Conservative ? It is a different matter in the South and West, except London. The Liberal Democrats might replace Labour as the opposition to the Conservatives as they have been gradually doing in some areas already. At some point there may be another 1997 type Conservative collapse and who would then benefit in Southern England, even in parts of London ?
There needs to be some thinking about the timing of boundary changes and the effect on each party, including retirements.
The old idea of swings from one big party to another has gone for good. More likely is a series of varying amounts of voter churn. Labour is making no headway against the SNP in Scotland and in an early election is likely to lose its one remaining seat north of the border. Tories would not get anywhere there but the Lib Dems have a chance of maybe 3 gains from the SNP.
England and Wales are different. Moderate centre-leftish pro european types like me will switch from Labour to Liberal Democrat, but there are probably only around 5 Labour seats where the LibDems have a chance. Other ex Labour voters who are anti-Europe like my friend in Rotherham either won’t vote or could go UKIP. On the other hand Tory leaning UKIP voters could go back to the Tories. Tories would I think gain 50/60 seats from Labour. In most of the South and South west I’d see the Liberal Democrats back in second place as Labour collapses in those areas. Possibility of picking up some of the more liberal Tory voters- I’d expect some Lib Dem gains from Con- could be 5, could be 20.
I’d guess an early election could end up around Con 380 Lab 180/190 Lib Dems 20/25 Green 1 SNP 48 Plaid Cymru 4, UKIP 2/3 Rest Northern Ireland
I thought the Libs were against the idea of majority government based on a small percentage of the vote such as 33%.
I agree with other posters that in any event it is unlikely that they could achieve such a vote.
The current system will remain in place with the most likely outcome being that the Tories will win the next election and quite possibly the one after that, this will be even more likely if (please) Scotland has a vote to leave the U.K.
In the Tory leadership election Theresa May said that the UK is leaving the EU and “We will make a success of it”. As Prime Minister she has stopped saying that. A forecast is one thing, but as time passes factual evidence would need to be produced. All we know is that the pound sterling has fallen by 13% – 14%, mainly caused by the decision on the EU referendum, with an uptick after the by-election result in Richmond Park.
Tynan: Well in the unlikely event that the Liberal Democrats did gain power with 33% of the vote I doubt that they would turn it down and who could blame them as that is the system the other main parties support. I just wish I was there to see their faces !
I would love to see the Lib Dems on power with 33% they should bend all the will and commit all their resources to such, I might even help. Imagine their faces as conscience and values are savaged by reality, it would be worth the sacrifice of 5 years, the coalition was amusing enough,to see them have to govern on their own would be fascinating.
we don’t want a GE before September next year at least
Tynan: Well the Labour party managed it and so have the Tories in some years. People have different ideas of what they want and expect. It all depends on the circumstances. Brexit might blow up in the face of the Tories – that could be quite fun. Of course it could turn out to be a roaring success just as the Liberal Democrats entered their first period of Government after the Tories were chased out of office and that could be fun too. We live in interesting times. Happy New Year.
I see no sign of a UKIP surge. They’re performing awfully in local by-elections and poorly in opinion polls. Their new headbanger leader will attract some Labour votes and alienate some Tory-UKIP waverers (bad news for us) but they have miles to go before they can win seats in places like Sunderland and Burnley. Their organisation is poor. I expect them to attract respectable votes in the Sunderlands and Blaenau Gwents, probably some second places, but I’ll be amazed if they pick up more than two or three seats if that and there are persistent rumours that their current sole MP may run as an independent next time.
By the way, I think us gaining fifty or sixty seats (on top of our current nine) is also unlikely. That would take us right back to our high point.
Trump won on a minority vote in a profoundly different system and political culture. US voters look much more at whether they like a candidate – Brits, when push comes to shove, at whether they think that person and party could run the country effectively. That doesn’t apply so much in making choices about minor parties, or let’s face it, we’d win local council elections but very few Westminster seats. But if UKIP had a surge, people would start wondering what they would be like in power and that thought would put off some of their sympathisers. Remember also that Trump commanded a huge and rich party machine. Mainstream Republicans may not have liked him, but they worked and voted for him.
It is entirely possible Brexit will blow up in the tories faces . I would be disappointed but still, parliament should be allowed full scrutiny, the courts should be respected and if necessary robustly defended. If need be the E.C.J. should rule on the process, remainers should not be demonised and if it is in fact the case that there is no good outcome possible at all, then the government should have the guts and the grace to come clean and then have a full and open and long cross party discussion as to what our future in the E.U. should be. They could even gain a little credit, for biting that bullet, if there is no other option. Not sure they have it in them to do that though, sad, but the lib dems would then be in a very good place to take the debate and country forward.