Author Archives: A retired medical doctor

The civil service impact statement for the Assisted Dying Bill could be very inaccurate

By A retired medical doctor | Wed 18th June 2025 - 5:31 pm

Editor’s note: This article contains details of terminal medical procedures which some readers may find upsetting.

The Civil Service has done an ‘impact assessment’ for what the NHS and hospice sector will look like if Kim Leadbeater’s assisted dying (AD) Bill becomes law.

It’s chosen a sample of a  few ‘comparator’ US jurisdictions  and New Zealand to show how many cases of AD there are (expressed as percentage  of total deaths). The population of the sample is equivalent to England and Wales.

The projection estimates a few hundred AD cases here a year initially, rising annually. However, New Zealand, in its first year of AD, recorded an AD rate six times the rate that was recorded in the first year in  California – equivalent to 4,000 England/Wales deaths if we scale up for population size. The maximum Civil Service estimate for the first year in England and Wales is 1,600 deaths. So what has gone wrong ?

Continue reading »
Posted in Op-eds | Tagged | 13 Comments
Advert

Recent Comments

  • Tom Bailey
    I like the sound of STV elections. Why not start the process by convincing the EU to use that system instead of the white/black smoke system used to choose Pope...
  • Matt (Bristol)
    Mark, I notice other comments have not made it and in truth there is no reason for me to derail this thread. But I genuinely believe there are a significant num...
  • Hywel
    Paul - what was this. It isn't on the wikipedia page of polls. Not surprised by the lack of commentary - the slow but noticeable down-tick in reform poll rati...
  • Chloe
    "As a liberal, I believe that we should permit people to live their lives freely, so long as by their actions they do not cause harm to others". Fully understa...
  • Sam Bateman
    If members cannot see how homophobic and misogynistic these suggestions are then we are done for electorally. If an MP wants to go out there and campaign to...