Author Archives: John Hills

Whether by accident or design the Conservative Parliamentary Party have nominated two populists, both positioned towards the right wing of their party, as candidates to be their next leader.  In the 24 hours before the final stage of voting, it appeared James Cleverly had the momentum.  Perhaps as Conservative leader, Cleverly might have been able to reach moderate voters who abandoned the Conservatives in 2024, towards Tory gains in 2029.  We now know that for the foreseeable, the Conservatives will be occupying political space much to the right of that claimed by the party David Cameron led until 2016.

There should then be an opportunity for the Liberal Democrats to make even further gains on 2024, and to clearly aspire to become His Majesty’s Official Opposition.

Of the 27 seats in which the Liberal Democrats came second in 2024, 20 of these are Conservative seats, six are Labour, and one is Plaid Cymru.  Likewise of all 72 seats in which Liberal Democrats came first, the Conservatives came second in a whopping 64, the Scottish National Party in a further six, and the Labour Party in just two.

Taken together then, if the Liberal Democrats wish to hold on to 2024 gains and make further gains in 2029, we must maintain and build upon the connection we have with those voters – whom the Pimlico Journal recently called Yellow England –  who might in different circumstances have voted for a more moderate and credible incarnation of the Conservatives.

With respect to becoming the Opposition, the Conservatives currently stand at 121 seats, the Liberal Democrats 72.  So, all other things being equal, even if the Liberal Democrats were able to turn each of those second place seats yellow in 2029, the Conservatives would still form the Opposition.