Author Archives: Mills Dyer

The Quiet Revival, my Roman Empire, and other times that I’ve been proven right

It is rare that a podcast will make me immediately stop what I am doing.  However, this was the case last summer, when the brilliant ‘Since Churchill and Attlee’ podcast highlighted a study from The Bible Society called ‘The Quiet Revival’. The report claimed to show that 16% of 18-24 year olds surveyed (by YouGov) in 2024 were Christian and went to church at least once a month, rising from 4% in 2018. This survey result was not just extraordinary, but frankly, unbelievable. As I read the Bible Society report for myself and googled the coverage surrounding it, I realised with shock that this report was being picked up as if it was itself gospel.

This brings me to my Roman Empire, something that a person thinks deeply about on a regular basis. My Roman Empire is that, Christianity worldwide (but particularly in North America and Western Europe) is dying out, and that no one else is noticing. This is not to say that I do not have skin in this game. I left Christianity a few years ago, when I realised that I could no longer believe in a deity, much less attend a church, that was less compassionate than I was. A ‘casualty’ of the Christianity’s move towards the political right.

As an observer of the church in the UK and certified data nerd/psephologist, I knew that the data in the Bible Society’s report went against all available evidence. Attendance data from the Church of England and the Catholic Church, data from the UK Census, and the British Attitudes Survey all disagree to a sharp increase in Christian attendance or identification as the Bible Society are suggesting. The British Attitudes Survey even showing the reverse pattern the The Bible Society claim for an uptick in the identification with Christianity. Moreover, the consistent data picture is one of decades of steady decline.  In 1960, just under 7% were on the Church of England’s electoral roll, in 2019, that had dropped to just 1.5%. The 2021 Census shows that identification with Christianity has dropped below half the population for the first time in England and Wales (46.2%, down from 59.3% in 2011).

Why this is all relevant now is because a fortnight ago (27th March) The Bible Society pulled the report and the data/claims that went with it. Now YouGov, which carried out the research, has told the Bible Society that an internal review of the data found that some of the respondents who completed its survey were “fraudulent”.

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Green Party members be warned, after the party comes the hangover

One by-election win does not a government make.

As a queer millennial living in East London, I am surrounded by Green Party Members. To paraphrase Derry Girls, ‘It’s wall to wall Green Party Members, sure you cannot move for Green Party Members round here’. Never has this been more obvious than in the last few days; conversations with friends and my social media have been filled with, quite frankly, sickenly gleeful Green Party activists & supporters, saying things like, ‘a left wing government is just around the corner!’ and ‘this is the chance we have to change our country!

Now don’t get me wrong. The day after we won the 2016 Richmond Park by-election, I walked into work with a smile that only really comes with a very pleasurable night. For the first couple of parliamentary by-elections that I fought and won, I too was an insufferable git that bored everyone with tales of the campaign trail. This was before I realised a devastating fact:

Winning parliamentary by-elections does not matter at all.

Word count forbids me from turning this argument into a 3,000 word essay; however, here are three reasons why the Green Party’s win in Gorton & Denton means absolutely nothing:

1. You won’t hold onto the seat.

Between 2001-2019, 13 seats moved from one political party to another, 6 of those MPs held onto those seats at the next general election. In each of those 6 cases, the party that held the set was either a good 2nd place before the by-election occurred, or had a reasonable local government base (and thus a track record of winning in the consistency). Neither of those are true in this case. The Green Party currently has no councillors that represent any of the wards in the constituency.

Posted in Op-eds | Tagged and | 48 Comments

The Green Party membership surge: Does it actually matter?

As someone that worked in the membership department at Lib Dem HQ during a time when we had three surges in membership in as many years, I got to know the elation and pitfalls of membership surges. When you are in them, they are intoxicating and enthralling but, as soon as they end, that is when the hard graft starts. That applies to both the national and local parties.

However, looking back to the several years of Lib Dem membership surges, I find myself asking did it matter? Below I’ve sketched out three reasons why they did and three why I think they were completely irrelevant. Good advice to both the Green party and any other party that might be surging in membership at the moment.

Why they matter

Money, Money, Money.

According to the Green party’s own Instagram post (dated 27th Oct) around 130,000 new members have joined the party since Zack Polanski was elected leader. With a non-concessionary membership rate of £60 a year, that leaves the Green party with just over £7.8 million in income. Of course, not everyone would’ve paid this, but many would have also donated when they joined.

In most membership driven organisations, membership subs are used to fund core costs. This will include staff, office premises, IT, HR and other infrastructure to keep the business of a political party running. This money will not necessarily be used to fight the next set of local elections that come around. If the Green Party is sensible, it will use that money to build capacity in local communities, especially in the 40 seats that the Green Party came second in at the last general election.

The creation of the die-hard activist.

Research done into the membership of political parties show that although the primary reason people joined political parties were ideological, finding a place to belong came a relatively close second. For those of us that either are or have been political activists, we will know that particularly during election times you can spend more time with activists than you do with your own family.

There is always a sliding scale of members participation in party activities. In my experience is that the majority will do nothing more than pay their membership subs and read the emails that they get sent from the central party. This runs all the way to the top 2% of activists, who spend every waking minute thinking about the design of a Focus leaflet or which by-election they’re going to go to on the weekend. Each membership surge has that 2% of hard-core activists. All the Green Party have to do is find them and touch them. 

Geographical spread

The Green Party have come from the base of just over 20,000 members. Which if we divide by the number of constituencies in England and Wales leaves the Green party with on average 34 members per Parliamentary constituency.  Of course, there will be constituencies where is the Green party have a larger active base and are likely to have many more than 34 members.

A geographical spread of membership that having over 150,000 members affords you, gives you a real boost in the number of candidates you can field in local elections. If we take the last set of full council elections (2024). At those elections both the Conservatives and Labour contested over 90% of the local council seats up that year. The Green party just managed 62%. This is a massive achievement but still way short of a full slate of candidates, especially considering that the local elections in 2024 had a relatively small number of councillors up for election.

Why it is completely irrelevant

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