Tag Archives: gorton and denton by-election

What really happened in Gorton and Denton

I’ve heard the calls a few times now, “if only we’d fought Gorton and Denton”, or “the local party got screwed over by HQ”, but as someone who was there coordinating the local party’s activity in the by-election, some things are a bit overstated.

Not fighting Gorton & Denton was a symptom of the problem that culminated with disappointing results in urban areas (including in my own ward in Manchester) last week, but it wasn’t the cause. The Greens aren’t doing well nationally because of the momentum of the Gorton & Denton win, they won Gorton & Denton because of the momentum they already had, which the win just accelerated.

So let’s set the record straight. The local party was in agreement with HQ – we didn’t want to burn ourselves out fighting a by-election there was no realistic chance of winning. And despite what you may have read in Liberator, there was no fully funded offer to do an election communication to the whole constituency (which would have cost at least an order of magnitude more than the suggested £300!), but instead only a more targeted one which we did do (and despite Liberator claiming HQ ran the election communication, it was actually me who did the work whilst recovering from surgery). There were a few points of friction with HQ (it was true that there was some initial pushback against even the targeted mailing, and I did find some of HQ’s comments on my artworking a bit pedantic), but we successfully made the case for approval from the agent and got on with it. Jackie was a fantastic candidate and I’m proud to have her as a colleague in the local party, and she did the job brilliantly, but she went into it knowing it was not an election we would be fighting to win.

Then when Labour’s NEC blocked Burnham, I was not at all surprised when the leader of Manchester’s Greens mentioned to me in conversation after full council that they were going to throw everything at it now. That was the turning point that convinced them that they could do it, and in the same position I would have felt the same – but we weren’t starting from the same position.

But the dominos that meant Gorton & Denton was a no hoper for us started falling a long time before the Greens chose to fight it, and us choosing not to. Membership is stagnant and even among core activists, enthusiasm is low. But despite a strong council base in Gorton a couple of decades ago, following the coalition era collapse we have now no infrastructure in place to have launched a campaign from. And when it comes to campaigning, nationally we seem to rely heavily on squeeze and tactical voting meaning we can only fight a campaign if we can position ourselves as a contender in a two horse race, which Gorton & Denton was never going to be.

All of these decisions added up that meant by the time Gwynne resigned, we’d essentially ruled ourselves out (which at best may be just an unintentional consequence of our strategy), and that’s not even to speak of the national media framing around the election which wouldn’t have considered us.

Posted in Op-eds | 11 Comments

Green Party members be warned, after the party comes the hangover

One by-election win does not a government make.

As a queer millennial living in East London, I am surrounded by Green Party Members. To paraphrase Derry Girls, ‘It’s wall to wall Green Party Members, sure you cannot move for Green Party Members round here’. Never has this been more obvious than in the last few days; conversations with friends and my social media have been filled with, quite frankly, sickenly gleeful Green Party activists & supporters, saying things like, ‘a left wing government is just around the corner!’ and ‘this is the chance we have to change our country!

Now don’t get me wrong. The day after we won the 2016 Richmond Park by-election, I walked into work with a smile that only really comes with a very pleasurable night. For the first couple of parliamentary by-elections that I fought and won, I too was an insufferable git that bored everyone with tales of the campaign trail. This was before I realised a devastating fact:

Winning parliamentary by-elections does not matter at all.

Word count forbids me from turning this argument into a 3,000 word essay; however, here are three reasons why the Green Party’s win in Gorton & Denton means absolutely nothing:

1. You won’t hold onto the seat.

Between 2001-2019, 13 seats moved from one political party to another, 6 of those MPs held onto those seats at the next general election. In each of those 6 cases, the party that held the set was either a good 2nd place before the by-election occurred, or had a reasonable local government base (and thus a track record of winning in the consistency). Neither of those are true in this case. The Green Party currently has no councillors that represent any of the wards in the constituency.

Posted in Op-eds | Also tagged | 48 Comments

Mathew on Monday: What a Liberal Response to the Middle East crisis actually looks like

This morning I appeared on BBC Radio Leicester about the escalating situation in the Middle East. As ever with the region the headlines move fast, the rhetoric moves faster, and the human cost is felt fastest of all.

For me, this is not abstract. I have family members who live in Dubai. When tensions rise across the region, when missiles are launched, when airspace closes, and you read of security warnings flashing up on phones, it stops being a matter of general interest and becomes something deeply personal. You find yourself not as a commentator, but as a relative. You look at maps differently. You listen for tone as much as the facts. You check in with family to find out the latest and to ensure they’re safe and well.

That personal dimension only reinforces what I believe politically. A liberal response to crises like this begins with one simple principle: every human life has equal worth.
It sounds obvious, yet it is remarkable how quickly that principle is abandoned. People are reduced to labels, civilian casualties become statistics. Entire populations are spoken about as though they are monolithic, interchangeable, or even expendable. That is not liberalism. It is dehumanisation.
A liberal response rejects that instinct outright.

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Lib Dem takeaways from Gorton and Denton

It would be very churlish not to congratulate Hannah Spencer and the Greens this morning. It’s a good feeling to win a by-election. Having another young, progressive woman in Parliament is so much better a result than it could have been.

The Greens did pretty much our playbook and took a seat that, in other times, we would have grabbed and we have to ask ourselves whether the strategy that allowed that to happen is one that we wish to continue.

The result was:

Green Party – 14,980 40.7%.            +28%
Reform UK – 10,578  28.7%               +15%
Labour Party – 9,364  25.4%               -25%
Conservative Party – 706 1.9%.            -6%
Liberal Democrats – 653 1.8%              -2%
Monster Raving Loony Party – 159
Advance UK – 154
Rejoin EU Party – 98
Libertarian Party – 47
Social Democratic Party – 46
Communist League – 29
The total number of votes cast was 36,814, with a voter turnout of 47.62%.

First up, this is a total and utter failure by Reform. This is the third by-election they were supposed to walk but lost after Hamilton and Caerphilly. They threw the entire contents of the luxury kitchen at it. And of course they are doing the Trump thing by complaining it was “sectarian” and stolen from them by illegal “family voting.”  Their blatant racism is unsurprising.

Posted in Op-eds | Also tagged and | 71 Comments

Why Vince is wrong about Gorton

Jackie Pearcey surrounded by orange diamondsHowever much I love Vince Cable, I can’t let his comments urging people to vote tactically for Labour in the forthcoming Gorton and Denton by-election pass without comment. He told the I Paper:

He pointed out that in previous by-elections and at the last general election, the Lib Dems had benefited from tactical voting by presenting themselves as the main anti-Conservative force in certain areas.

Cable – who was business secretary in the coalition government before leading his party from 2017 to 2019 – said: “First of all, the Lib Dems are not going to win here.

There is a flipside to tactical voting – the Lib Dems have benefited from perfecting organised tactical voting, and there is a reciprocal side of it that when we stand no chance of winning, we have to be honest about what we would do instead.

We do have a duty to get behind the candidate – and the sense I get, we’re all floating in the unknown here, is that whether it’s local surveys or the kind of feedback our people are getting on the ground, is that, for all the problems of the Labour Government they are still strong enough to present the main challenge to Reform and we have got to therefore get behind them.

Where he is right is that we do, of course, encourage tactical voting when we are in a position to win a seat. Squeezing the third, fourth or fifth place candidates’ votes is a legitimate campaign tactic. We need those people to vote for us if we are going to do well.

And I suspect that many Lib Dems vote tactically to stop other parties at the same time as campaigning in target seats to ensure other Lib Dems win. And I’m not going to judge them. However, it’s not for us to pro-actively encourage our supporters to vote a certain way. It’s for the party who wants their vote to persuade them. We might, by the size of our campaign in a particular area not stand in their way but we should always be about encouraging people to vote Lib Dem.

The party spokesperson who responded to Vince’s comments did so with respect, which was good.

Vince Cable has made an invaluable contribution to the party over the years and he is entitled to his own view.

As a party we’ll always make the case for voting Liberal Democrat, and that’s why we’re standing a candidate in Gorton and Denton and fighting for every vote.

For me, though, there are no circumstances in which I could vote Labour at the moment. There is a time when I might have considered voting tactically for them. The closest I ever got was in 2015 to counteract the SNP surge. However, I voted Lib Dem because I didn’t think my Labour MP was worth saving.

Not now, though. Labour are clearly worried about the Scottish Parliament elections because they canvassed me a couple of months ago. I told them that they had disappointed so much on various things, such as the two child payment, Starmer’s “island of strangers” speech and the way they had thrown trans people under the bus that I wouldn’t even give them a preference in a Council election (we have STV up here).

I don’t necessarily have a problem with the idea of voting for another party to stop Reform. Farage’s party is the ultimate nasty party that brings the worst of Trumpian politics to Britain. And we only have to look at innocent protesters being gunned down by barely trained thugs on the streets of Minneapolis, people being ripped from their families and sent to prison in another country without due process, the blatant corruption (Trump has enriched himself by a minimum of $1.4 billion) in the first year of his second term and the dismantling of the international order and democracy itself in the US to know that we don’t want that here.

But Labour’s answer to Reform has been to imitate them, to ape their narrative and paint themselves as a sort of Reform Lite. And the more they do that, the more the Reform narrative on immigrants, on marginalised groups of people, becomes embedded.

Posted in Op-eds | Also tagged , , and | 36 Comments
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