Boothroyd predicts outcome of May elections

Indigo public affairs have e-mailed through their predictions for the outcome of the May elections.

Boothroyd summary

Four years on from a huge protest vote to the Liberal Democrats in the aftermath of the invasion of Iraq, with around half of all Liberal Democrat Councillors in England up for re-election this year, it may be a suprise to see the ‘L Dem gain’ column looking quite as long as it is in these predictions. 

In the absense of a polarising national issue to convert the local elections in to a real referendum on the Labour government, people are more likely to vote on local issues so, as Simon Hughes is fond of saying, “where we work, we win.”

In North Dorset, the Lib Dems and the Conservatives both have 13 seats each, with the Conservatives at present in control.  None of the other predicted gains by Labour or Conservative are either directly from the Liberal Democrats, or from Liberal Democrat controlled councils.

Indigo claim a 69% success rate in their predictions of the London local election results last year.

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14 Comments

  • Matt Simpson 3rd Feb '07 - 5:58pm

    I am very surprised to see Mid Sussex in the list of LibDem gains. I live there and in a ward we hold I have not had a Focus from us since June, but have had 4 very good Conservative leaflets since September.

    Unless our lot get their act together pronto here, the Tories will take it from the current NOC.

    Only good news from Sussex is that I very much doubt the predicted Tory gain of Brighton & Hove.

  • Mark Senior 3rd Feb '07 - 6:08pm

    Echo Matt , the Conservatives have no chance of overall control in Brighton . They may well end up the largest party but they are not challengers in enough seats to get a majority .

  • I suppose that losing Sheffield to NOC would be a possibility if Labour don’t perform as well as last year. I suppose the following wards is where Labour can lose: Gleadless Valley, Hillsborough, Mosborough, Walkley.

  • Hywel Morgan 4th Feb '07 - 11:52am

    I don’t think you can class Shepway as Lib Dem majority – though I don’t know if these work on the basis of councils “as now” or “as after the last election”

  • South Glos Spy 5th Feb '07 - 1:19pm

    Whilst I love your optimism on Bristol and South Glos (please not South Glocs) and I hope you’re proved right. Every other expert is predicting a Tory gain for South Glos. We only hold 31 now and we lose 2 wards due to boundary changes the rest of which also favour the Tories. And sadly in many wards we find ourselves reliant on the Labour party to hold their seats to be able to fight off the Tory challenge! Tim Kent may well be wise to distrust the ‘ides’ of ‘experts’!

  • I’m quite surprised that Hull is not a predicted gain for the Lib Dems next time. Just a few councillors will do the job.

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