Boris’s Tory leadership chances: the lesson of Patrick Gordon Walker

By Stephen Tall | Tue 19th March 2013 - 8:40 pm

A typically colourful quote from Mayor of London Boris Johnson on any ambition he might harbour one day to occupy Number 10:

“I would like to be the lead singer of an international rock group. That was my aim, or a good guitarist. I would love to have been a world-famous painter or a composer. There are many things that I would like to have been able to do. … Obviously, if the ball came loose from the back of a scrum – which it won’t – it would be a great, great thing to have a crack at. But it’s not going to happen.”

Yet he remains the bookies’ favourite, according to The Spectator’s daily tracker:

Next Tory leader chances, as implied by bookies: Boris Johnson 19%, Theresa May 16%, Michael Gove 11%, Philip Hammond 9%, George Osborne 9%, William Hague 8%, David Davis 6%, Grant Shapps 5%.

The biggest stumbling block to Boris becoming Tory leader is the obvious one: he’s not an MP. But there is continuing speculation about a possible route — for example, from political journalist Gaby Hinsliff:

@clarkerosie yes, he does have to get a seat. suspect a fair few MPs prepared to give up their seats to make that byelexn possible

— Gaby Hinsliff (@gabyhinsliff) March 11, 2013

A by-election to create a vacancy for Boris — is it plausible? Well, never rule anything out. But the voters tend not to like being taken for granted. That’s a lesson that Patrick Gordon Walker learned the hard way in the 1965 Leyton by-election…

Patrick Gordon Walker was the Labour MP defeated in 1964 in the infamous Smethwick campaign (which featured the slogan, “If you want a nigger neighbour, vote Labour”). Harold Wilson appointed Gordon Walker to the foreign office anyway. Labour’s Reginald Sorensen was moved upstairs to the Lords to create a safe seat for Gordon Walker to occupy. But Leyton’s voters had other ideas: it was gained by the Tories by 205 votes in January 1965. Patrick Gordon Walker was forced to resign from office.

However, he did return to power: the seat reverted to Labour at the 1966 general election. So if Boris is to take a tilt at the Tory leadership, the safe route would be to find a London seat ready for the 2015 general election. To risk a by-election is to chance humiliation. And Boris may be a fool, but he’s not stupid.

* Stephen was Editor (and Co-Editor) of Liberal Democrat Voice from 2007 to 2015, and writes at The Collected Stephen Tall.

4 Comments

Simon Titley 19th Mar '13 - 10:04pm

You neglect to name the Tory candidate who won Smethwick in 1964 against the national trend, benefitting from the infamous slogan “If you want a nigger for a neighbour, vote Labour”.

It was Peter Griffiths, who was defeated in the subsequent general election in 1966 but re-entered the Commons in 1979 as Tory MP for Portsmouth North. He held the seat until 1997 but kept a low profile.
Tom Papworth 19th Mar '13 - 11:05pm

And, to be fair to theTories, my understanding is that he was treated as a pariah in parliament.

On the issue of a by-election, how safe was Layton at the time? The last rumour I heard was that room would be made for Boris in South Croydon. Hardly a big risk there, I’d suggest.
Ian Sanderson (RM3) 20th Mar '13 - 8:37am

The significance of Patrick Gordon Walker was that, after 13 years in opposition, he, like Wilson himself, was one of very few Labour MPs at the time who had actually been a minister. He was also a senior member of the party. So you can see why Wilson wanted him in the cabinet.
Perhaps, in Smethwick, and later in Leyton, he was seen by voters as too much a national figure and too detached from his constituents local concerns. Happened to Chris Patten too.
simon 20th Mar '13 - 11:19am

” The last rumour I heard was that room would be made for Boris in South Croydon. Hardly a big risk there, I’d suggest”

I wouldn’t have thought that Croydon was Boris’ style – surely he would be lined up for a seat like Kensington? Current MP Malcolm Rifkind must surely be thinking about retiring at some point soon and could be guaranteed elevation to the Lords. I heard rumours too that the seat of Reigate was being line dup for Boris?