“Brexit plunges UK economy to worst level since 2009”

The BBC, whom many people thought unfairly generous to Leave during the referendum campaign reports worrying economic data.

Data from Markit’s Purchasing Manager’s Index, or PMI, shows a fall to 47.7 in July, the lowest level since April in 2009. A reading below 50 indicates contraction.

Both manufacturing and service sectors saw a decline in output and orders.

The report goes onto say that most businesses are attributing the causes to “Brexit” (which appears to mean the vote to Leave, rather than leaving itself which has not yet happened).

Unless the economy improves in coming months we will be officially in recession.  A Brexit recession.  A Conservative recession.

In my region, I have spoken to small businesses that have had to lay people off.  In addition the number of job vacancies advertised has shrunk across the nation by 700,000.  People have stopped hiring.

In local debate after local debate Leave speakers said there would be no economic cost.

In one debate I did with Daniel Hannan MEP he said,

“the only job lost will be mine [as a Conservative MEP].”

That was clearly a lie.  Many more people are losing their jobs and they do not have the safety nets of a weathy man like Mr Hannan.

It is vital that in every election, especially the General Election, we give people a chance to change course and change the people who have led us to disaster.

Their prospectus was based in lies and economic ignorance.  Our alternative is based in a deep belief that we can do better than this.

 

 

 

* Antony Hook was #2 on the South East European list in 2014, is the English Party's representative on the Federal Executive and produces this sites EU Referendum Roundup.

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14 Comments

  • Bill le Breton 22nd Jul '16 - 1:02pm

    Except that the “plunge” began in 2014 – as this chart illustrates
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cn9uOPDWAAAuFRD.png:large

  • Christopher Haigh 22nd Jul '16 - 1:31pm

    Theresa May has got to forget about this Conservative Party joke referendum. I know she has appointed some of her most joke members to brexit jobs, presumably to stall any EU exit implementation. Some other of her appointments like Hammond are good and serious. She just needs to get on with status quo stable government.

  • Eddie Sammon 22nd Jul '16 - 2:14pm

    The data is also why I was arguing yesterday against Hollande’s plan to punish Britain. Yes, privileged leave supporters can afford the economy to suffer a bit, but privileged remain supporters shouldn’t get lax about the dangers to the economy and think they can just blame it on the leave side. Most the public appear to be against a second referendum and don’t underestimate the cabapibility of the pro brexit part of the press to blame the recession on foreigners, in this case continentals, and leftists.

    Regards

  • I voted remain and was initially upset with the result, but it really is time to accept it and move on. The country seems to have got used to the idea of leaving and the Prime Minister has said Brexit means Brexit. If we have a recession – the IMF say we won’t – we have a recession, it’s happened before and I’ve no doubt it will happen again. The people have spoken and the politicians – if they want to get re-elected – will have to act.

  • Eddie Sammon 22nd Jul '16 - 2:22pm

    PS, by continentals I mean continental politicians. Of course, it’s outrageous to blame a recession on immigrants, but it can be blamed partly on the EU if they seek to punish us.

  • “The BBC, whom many people thought unfairly generous to Leave during the referendum campaign”.

    And who would many people be ?

    I really would advise you to get out of the St Sebastian mode, Antony. However wrong I may think the Brexiters were (and I do)…. crying foul all the time butters no parsnips and does nothing to reach the 52%..

  • @Bill le Breton – whilst the graph you link to shows the decline you mention, it also very clearly shows the “plunge” in May/June of this year. The question, which I accept is totally open to debate, is whether this further plunge is due to the Referendum or some other factor.

    What must be concerning is the businesses that are now vulnerable to being taken over the edge. We’ve had the first holiday company go under leaving 100,000+ Britian’s without a holiday and without any compensation for monies already paid. Given the thin margins in this highly competitive industry and their exposure to exchange rate fluctuations – in this case GBP to Euro, there is an expectation that other travel companies are likely to follow this one into administration…

    The general opinion is that Google is unlikely to go ahead with the building of its European/EU HQ in London. If this happens it will be just the visible tip of a redirection of technology investment monies (and future tax revenues) away from the UK…

  • Christopher Haigh 22nd Jul '16 - 3:19pm

    Piles of supplier letters have arrived in accounts saying that prices are going up next month due to the decline in the value of the pound.

  • Well said Bill and malc.

    As to Lowcostholidays, it was a Spanish online travel agent not a British one and terrorism and political instability are also factors in holiday bookings being down. You can’t pin that one on Brexit. Most customers would have used a credit card for all or part of the cost and will be protected via that route. Some debit card issuers will also pay compensation. For any purchase over £100 it is always worth paying at least part with a credit card so you make a Section 75 claim for the whole amount. Checking for ATOL protection is always wise too. That company wasn’t covered so alarm bells should have been loudly ringing.

    Imported goods and materials may go up but the price of our export goods has gone down making us more competitive. Companies can also switch to British materials which are becoming more competitive compared to imports. Every cloud… ARM are aiming to double their UK workforce. The source of that vacancy data is dodgy as well. It scrapes data from job websites meaning the same job advertised 5 times is counted as 5 vacancies. It’s likely that job advertising budgets are down given the price of a single ad on some of those sites. I’ve noticed a lot more direct approaches and via LinkedIn in my industry which won’t show up. So it’s impossible to tell how many actual vacancies there really are and whether the numbers are down or job advertising is becoming leaner.

    An indicator showing adverse data does not equal plunging “UK economy to worst level since 2009”. Another misleading spin headline.

  • Sue Sutherland 23rd Jul '16 - 2:05pm

    There was news a few days ago that a brick factory is closing. This is bad news because it shows that there has been a slackening of demand for a while not just because of Brexit. We could be in for a recession exacerbated by the referendum result and unfortunately it’s unlikely the Tories will want to intervene if they remain true to form, However, if Teresa May really wants to be a one nation Tory she should invest in social housing as they did in the 50s and 60s and this would help our economy.
    Of course, the EU could be in for a double dip recession too. I don’t want to be a party pooper but Brexit could make our situation much worse if we start losing our financial services to the rest of Europe. I think we should be looking at how we think the economy can be prevented from sinking into recession as well as trying to make the most of any opportunities that Brexit offers.

  • Well’s Fargo – I think it’s the worlds largest bank – announced plans for a massive new headquarters for the London financial district the other day. It’s certainly not all bad news since Brexit.

  • Christopher Haigh 23rd Jul '16 - 8:19pm

    @malc. I think Wells Fargo are just consolidating their London operations. They are mainly concerned with US-Anglo corporates and don’t have interests in further Europe.

  • Christopher

    You might be right, but consolidating or not, it’s still the worlds largest bank spending 400 million dollars on a new office block in London. They must have some faith in the UK’s future to do that.

  • Yellow Submarine 25th Jul '16 - 7:16pm

    The statistics the article refers to are only for 8 days immeadiately after the referendum. It’s also a survey of sentiment not actual economic decisions taken yet. Of course it may turn out to be accurate but (a) It’s a tiny data set (b) It’s far too early to tell.

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