The elections watchdog has recommended a change to the question to be put to voters in a future EU referendum.
The Electoral Commission said the wording proposed by ministers – “should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union?” – could be perceived as biased to the status quo.
It has proposed adding the words “or leave the European Union?”
It has been reported that Downing St has accepted this advice. On the face of it, this seems quite reasonable. There does appear to be an advantage in being “Yes”, and therefore a question with the answers of leave or remain should be more neutral.
There is, however, some analysis of polling at the Guardian live blog which suggests that the leave/remain option is the worst of the three with only a 10 point lead for remain. No(remain) has a 14 point leave over Yes(leave), and Yes(remain) has an 18 point lead over No(leave).
Some are arguing that the word leave has negative connotations, but surely remain does too – at least to optimists. You remain when you fail to do something better – or avoid something worse. Optimists and neophiles will surely instinctively think of the former.
To my mind the fairest and clearest answers to the referendum question would be in and out.
Should the United Kingdom remain in the European Union or be left out of it?
* Joe Otten was the candidate for Sheffield Heeley in June 2017 and Doncaster North in December 2019 and is a councillor in Sheffield.
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24 Comments
“There is, however, some analysis of polling at the Guardian live blog which suggests that the leave/remain option is the worst of the three with only a 10 point lead for remain. No(remain) has a 14 point leave over Yes(leave), and Yes(remain) as an 18 point lead over No(leave).”
What a biased and undemocratic comment from an LD!
On the basis of the figures you’ve given, it is not the “worst” of the three; it is the “fairest” of the three.
Unless, of course, you’re biased and happy for the state to act like like a banana republic or a communist regime and manipulate the result?
I don’t think you can be “left out” of something you are already in. You have to leave or be ejected.
Richard – it is the worst in the sense of being the greatest risk to British interests. If you want neutrality on the issue of #Brexit, what are you doing here?
I don’t see how you can call it the fairest when it gives (on this poll) out a bigger advantage than Yes does.
David, that’s a fair point. How do you get the word out in there?
This is great. The referendum must be fair and must be seen to be fair. Adjusting things according to advice from the EC will almost certainly not change the outcome, but it will make the outcome far more legitimate.
“I don’t see how you can call it the fairest when it gives (on this poll) out a bigger advantage than Yes does.”
Joe – sorry but I don’t understand. I think I must be missing something here. You said, “the leave/remain option is the worst of the three with only a 10 point lead for remain”
All three of the example you have given give an advantage to the “stay in the eu” camp of either 10, 14 or 18 points. Surely, the best question is the one that gives no advantage to either side? That will probably be impossible to achieve, so the one with the lowest difference is surely the fairest?
No Richard. If the true support was 50-50 then yes, the closest to 50-50 would be the fairest question.
This poll suggests, if we look at the yes/no questions, a 16 point lead for staying in, with being “yes” worth another 2 points to either side. A fair question would therefore show a 16 point lead for staying in, this reflecting actual public opinion.
This is all within the margin of error though.
I think we should go with the electoral commission recommendation and avoid any suggestion whatsoever that we are trying to manipulate the question to get the answer we want.
Tim should welcome the suggestion of the Commission and make it clear that Liberal Democrats believe in fairness first and foremost
This seems like a minor change & not one we should welcome or not. The Commission makes a fair point & its their job to decide these things. The new wording may have the advantage that voters get a clearer choice with no opportunity to think that they can vote for renegotiation. The anti-EU side will try to muddy the waters & the new wording seems to make that harder to do.
Joe, It doesn’t matter what polls show (we all know how accurate they are) …In ANY open ballot he question should show the least bias either way….
As for, “If you want neutrality on the issue of #Brexit, what are you doing here?”….I’m pro EU, but if being neutral in the debate bars one from this site then?????
Andrew McC’s advice seems to make sense, given that a referendum can never be absolutely fair. Power will always lie disproportionately with whoever frames the question – which is why liberals shouldn’t voluntarily touch them with a bargepole – while accepting that we will face awkward dilemmas when we have to vote in them.
Never saw much of an issue with the original question.
Ignore Richard. He’s a Kipper. Agree with ATF. The question and answers are nice and simple.
I must be having an off day. Is the amended question to be: Should the UK remain a member of the EU or leave the EU?
So if so what does “Yes” mean in that context? I can see people voting yes on the basis of the last part of the question who want to leave and vice versa
I think the revised question also suffers from the bias of the original question and in the words of Martin Boon of the ICM people are still being asked to “to acquiesce with the status quo”!
The problem is that “Remain” is a passive word whereas “Leave” implies an action. However, I do think the revision is a big improvement and will do much to change the soundbite debate; “Vote Yes/No” has a different ring/tone to “Vote Remain/Leave”.
“Ignore Richard. He’s a Kipper.”
By all means ignore me, but I ain’t UKIP!
In his first comment Joe Otten seems to imply that Lib Dems who favour exit from the EU should not be on LDV.
Is that really what he meant?
No – he’s just having a go at me.
Fair enough – I had a go at him!
@Robert Eggleston
I understand the intention is to banish “yes” or “no” altogether. The two alternatives on the ballot paper would be “remain a member of the European Union” or “leave the European Union”. I think this unnecessarily complicates the process, risks confusing the voter and will make campaigning awkward to say the least. What is to be on our pro-european banner – “remain”? I can scarcely think of a less sexy word. “Vote “remain” for a positive future.” Yipes! Having said that it seems impossible now to get anywhere by crying foul. We are going to be stuck with it.
The electoral Commission was right. The government was being underhand in trying to proceed with a biased question.
Maybe we could stress the ‘in’ at the end of ‘remain’ somehow?
Slightly OT, why is it Lib Dem policy to abandon the (ante – EU) sovereign status of the UK in favour of becoming a region of a federation? This is actually a serious question because I see a huge conflict between conventional democracy and the EU style of government.
I think the UK will vote to leave the EU. At this stage all the facts haven’t been debated in public so there is all to play for with polls as close as that. At the start of the Scottish independence referendum only around one third of people wanted independence.
No idea how I will vote, but in the few Euro debates we have had the OUT camp always seem to best the IN camp, Farage Vs. Clegg on the radio being the best example, Farage always seemed to win those debates over Clegg in the eyes of the listeners.
DavidW
It is like the Scottish referendum in that one side (the leave side, and the SNP) are much more passionate on average that the other.
But just as in Scotland the “devil you know” is likely to win out, as all the heavyweights come out in favour of “remaining”
No-one was listening to Nick Clegg by then so in the eyes (or perhaps ears?) of the listeners a stuffed sofa would have beaten him in those debates!
@AndrewMcC: Well you think we will stay, I think we will leave, but neither of us know. But we will soon find out I guess.