Davis wins by-election with 75% vote on a 35% turnout

Well, that’s what the Yorkshire Post is saying, anyway, as of 12.30 am:

David Davis was tonight expected to easily win the Haltemprice and Howden by-election, with supporters predicting he would pick up at least 75 percent of the vote. …

Turnout was annouced officially as 34.5 percent – less than half that at the 2005 General Election, where 70.2 percent of constituents voted.

Mr Davis is expected to pick up between 15,000 and 16,000 votes, giving him a majority of about 10,000 to 12,000 – doubling that of the 5,116 majority he picked up in 2005.

The biggest surprise of the night was expected to be a strong showing by English Democrat candidate Joanne Robinson. She is predicted to come second or third.

Women’s rights campaigner Jill Saward was said to be picking up significant votes, as was the Green Party’s Shan Oakes.

None of the other candidates were expected to retain their deposits.

And who am I to disagree?

Read more by or more about .
This entry was posted in News and Parliamentary by-elections.
Advert

14 Comments

  • Hywel Morgan 11th Jul '08 - 1:28am

    Your faith in the accuracy of the fourth estate is undimmed then 🙂

  • A pyorrhoeaic victory?

  • So over 40,000 people backed candidates aginst 42 Days detention and after an intensive and well financed campaign, David Davis had reduced that to just over 17,000.
    Job done:-)

    Hey David, if your really bothered about a Government imposing bad legislation on the majority, why not suppport electoral reform, or would the liberty of having a meaningful vote be just too much?

  • Iain Roberts 11th Jul '08 - 7:51am

    The lost deposits must have almost covered the cost of the by-election 🙂

  • By-election crusader 11th Jul '08 - 8:28am

    Tez: Even though I disagree with Saward, this is a little harsh, I feel! Saward was a victim while Solanis was a would-be killer who got 3 years…

    Iain: Yes – 23 lost deposits. Do they go to central govt or whatever passes for Haltemprice Council these days.

    Prediction: I wasn’t far off with turnout, but overestimated Greens’ impact in 4 weeks, and wildly overestimated the impact of Saward’s press coverage – perhaps I am too broadsheet oriented! The ED anti-Lisbon brigade did better than I expected at the expense of the NF, but it confirms that only a very small minority are concerned enough about Lisbon to vote.

  • This was (I hope) a unique event in British politics and as such most people seem to have struggled to give it some meaning, but perhaps the reality is that it has no meaning.

  • Actually, those figures in the headline aren’t correct (surely the headline can be edited, even if Stephen felt the need to jump the gun by basing it on a news report which obviously contained inconsistent information?).

    Anyhow, it seems Davis got the backing of just under a quarter of the electorate. Considering that vox pops during the campaign werv saying many people would support him personally although they disagreed with his line on 42 days, it’s difficult to see what was achieved.

  • What was achieved, if you believe the polls, is that the public are now much more sceptical over the 42-day issue. Given that Gordon Brown kept referring to “public support” for the plans, this is something very significant indeed.

    However, if you have made up your mind that you dont like David Davis then this wont make any difference to you, will it…

  • MBoy

    You may be interested to read a recent commentary on that question here:
    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/1244

    It points out that the poll showing an apparent shift in attitudes asked a very loaded question – and that another survey showed virtually no movement in public opinion over the course of Davis’s campaign.

  • MBoy, I don’t like DD, but that does not disqualify me from looking at the results. With only 34% of a small safe Tory constituency (who had a turnout of 70% previously), I am not sure it is fair to say that Brown’s claim of public support is wrong. I mean I am not a statistician but I am sure that’s a pretty large claim drawn from a very small sample.

    In fact DD has been screwed by the party system. Labour did not want a debate, the Lib Dems were on the same side, and Cameron was too pissed off with the man to throw the party media machine behind him. There was little coverage, & no real debate. In the meantime the Lords are doing what DD wanted to do without the narcissistic political gesturing.

Post a Comment

Lib Dem Voice welcomes comments from everyone but we ask you to be polite, to be on topic and to be who you say you are. You can read our comments policy in full here. Please respect it and all readers of the site.

If you are a member of the party, you can have the Lib Dem Logo appear next to your comments to show this. You must be registered for our forum and can then login on this public site with the same username and password.

To have your photo next to your comment please signup your email address with Gravatar.

Your email is never published. Required fields are marked *

*
*
Please complete the name of this site, Liberal Democrat ...?

Advert



Recent Comments

  • User AvatarCassie 18th Jun - 10:32am
    Key point being that even if there is some amazing Brexit benefit for the NHS, it will be for England only. Either they think Welsh...
  • User AvatarSimon Shaw 18th Jun - 10:20am
    @Cassie "David Raw… And the relevance/usefulness of your remark to 2018, to Brexit, to TM cynically linking extra NHS cash for England (only) with Brexit…...
  • User AvatarSimon Shaw 18th Jun - 10:13am
    @Peter Martin "Dianne Abbot was widely criticised for attempting a similar back-of-envelope type calculation as yourself when she mentioned recruiting 1000 police officers who were...
  • User AvatarPaul Walter 18th Jun - 9:49am
    Thank you David. I wasn't trying to undermine you. I don't treat comments exchanges as a sort of game. I have plenty of other things...
  • User AvatarLyn N 18th Jun - 9:32am
    @Cassie Quite. The Lib Dem’s as a minor partner in a coalition are only ever going to be able to soften the actions of larger...
  • User AvatarGlenn 18th Jun - 9:30am
    Military spending is not just about defence. It's about selling arms and expertise. It can kill people, which I'm pretty certain is not a public...