Davis wins by-election with 75% vote on a 35% turnout

Well, that’s what the Yorkshire Post is saying, anyway, as of 12.30 am:

David Davis was tonight expected to easily win the Haltemprice and Howden by-election, with supporters predicting he would pick up at least 75 percent of the vote. …

Turnout was annouced officially as 34.5 percent – less than half that at the 2005 General Election, where 70.2 percent of constituents voted.

Mr Davis is expected to pick up between 15,000 and 16,000 votes, giving him a majority of about 10,000 to 12,000 – doubling that of the 5,116 majority he picked up in 2005.

The biggest surprise of the night was expected to be a strong showing by English Democrat candidate Joanne Robinson. She is predicted to come second or third.

Women’s rights campaigner Jill Saward was said to be picking up significant votes, as was the Green Party’s Shan Oakes.

None of the other candidates were expected to retain their deposits.

And who am I to disagree?

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This entry was posted in News and Parliamentary by-elections.
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14 Comments

  • Hywel Morgan 11th Jul '08 - 1:28am

    Your faith in the accuracy of the fourth estate is undimmed then 🙂

  • A pyorrhoeaic victory?

  • So over 40,000 people backed candidates aginst 42 Days detention and after an intensive and well financed campaign, David Davis had reduced that to just over 17,000.
    Job done:-)

    Hey David, if your really bothered about a Government imposing bad legislation on the majority, why not suppport electoral reform, or would the liberty of having a meaningful vote be just too much?

  • Iain Roberts 11th Jul '08 - 7:51am

    The lost deposits must have almost covered the cost of the by-election 🙂

  • By-election crusader 11th Jul '08 - 8:28am

    Tez: Even though I disagree with Saward, this is a little harsh, I feel! Saward was a victim while Solanis was a would-be killer who got 3 years…

    Iain: Yes – 23 lost deposits. Do they go to central govt or whatever passes for Haltemprice Council these days.

    Prediction: I wasn’t far off with turnout, but overestimated Greens’ impact in 4 weeks, and wildly overestimated the impact of Saward’s press coverage – perhaps I am too broadsheet oriented! The ED anti-Lisbon brigade did better than I expected at the expense of the NF, but it confirms that only a very small minority are concerned enough about Lisbon to vote.

  • This was (I hope) a unique event in British politics and as such most people seem to have struggled to give it some meaning, but perhaps the reality is that it has no meaning.

  • Actually, those figures in the headline aren’t correct (surely the headline can be edited, even if Stephen felt the need to jump the gun by basing it on a news report which obviously contained inconsistent information?).

    Anyhow, it seems Davis got the backing of just under a quarter of the electorate. Considering that vox pops during the campaign werv saying many people would support him personally although they disagreed with his line on 42 days, it’s difficult to see what was achieved.

  • What was achieved, if you believe the polls, is that the public are now much more sceptical over the 42-day issue. Given that Gordon Brown kept referring to “public support” for the plans, this is something very significant indeed.

    However, if you have made up your mind that you dont like David Davis then this wont make any difference to you, will it…

  • MBoy

    You may be interested to read a recent commentary on that question here:
    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/1244

    It points out that the poll showing an apparent shift in attitudes asked a very loaded question – and that another survey showed virtually no movement in public opinion over the course of Davis’s campaign.

  • MBoy, I don’t like DD, but that does not disqualify me from looking at the results. With only 34% of a small safe Tory constituency (who had a turnout of 70% previously), I am not sure it is fair to say that Brown’s claim of public support is wrong. I mean I am not a statistician but I am sure that’s a pretty large claim drawn from a very small sample.

    In fact DD has been screwed by the party system. Labour did not want a debate, the Lib Dems were on the same side, and Cameron was too pissed off with the man to throw the party media machine behind him. There was little coverage, & no real debate. In the meantime the Lords are doing what DD wanted to do without the narcissistic political gesturing.

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