Last Sunday, the post-war consensus in Austrian politics was swept away. Nobert Hofer, from the far right Austrian Freedom Party (FPÖ), came top with 35% in the first round of the presidential elections and faces a run off Alexander van der Bellen, a former leader of and supported by the Greens, who received 21% and came first in most cities including Vienna. Turnout was a respectable 69%. The campaign for the second round ballot on May 22 is likely to be bruising and divisive. Forecasts suggest that Hofer will win.
This was no earthquake as the FPÖ had performed well in local elections last October. This time Hofer’s result was significantly better than the polls had predicted. The Greens were also pleased with van der Bellen’s result. NEOS, our young sister party, had backed Irmgard Griss who came third with 19%. They are now supporting van der Bellen ‘for the Republic’.
The candidates supported by the two main parties came fourth and fifth with around 11% each. The Social Democrats (SPÖ) and the Austrian People’s Party (ÖVP) have provided all previous presidents since the Second World War and are currently governing together in a grand coalition. The coalition is now responding by tightening asylum laws and building more border fences.
There are at least three factors behind the result: the far right has always been able to play on Austria’s ambivalence to the Second World War, disillusionment with traditional politicians and parties and the impact of the refugee crisis.
Hofer has vowed to push his constitutional powers to the limit if elected, especially the presidential right to sack and appoint governments. The FPÖ are likely to do very well in any early elections (otherwise due in 2018).
We can’t do very much – the result is in Austrian hands. You should persuade any Austrian acquaintances to cast their vote for van der Bellen on May 22 as suggested by NEOS. However, do not criticise Hofer from abroad as this will increase his chances of winning. Foreign criticism helped the discredited Kurt Waldheim when he was elected president in 1986. Austrian media have already picked up GuardianWitness asking ‘What is the current mood like in Austria?’ even though it has no comments at the time of writing!
And the earthquake – it happened at Monday lunchtime, registering around 4 on the Richter scale with an epicentre 22km SW of Vienna. I completely failed to notice it when standing in the street!
* Richard Robinson was the PPC in East Hampshire in May 2015 and currently divides his time between there and Vienna.
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8 Comments
Richard
Firstly , thank you for the article , though the German language links are lost on any of us without our former leaders capacity for many languages , and the title of the posting meant I actually worried a second the country had suffered an EARTHQUAKE !
I think the election result should mean the right wing lose in the second round, as if you add up the main social democrat . christian democrat , liberal , green co operation to forge a unified stance , add the popularity factor of the centre left candidate , it is surely very likely?
The one big advantage of a personality contest for presidential elections , is , if they are i two parts , moderates cross party allegiance .Remember when everyone rallied to Chirac to defeat Le Pen?
You mention the grand coalition. There have been quite a few grand coalition governments in Austria: so much so that a voter frustrated with the status quo has few options to try to achieve change. It’s really not surprising that support for extremists has been growing, as it has in the Netherlands where there has also been a quite a lot of grand coalition government recently. And in Germany, where there’s also grand coalition.
This is a result of proportional representation in all three countries, of course. But I don’t expect LibDems will draw any lesson from that.
Austria unfortunately has ‘previous’. Hitler came from Austria and probably learned his anti semitism as a down and out in pre WW1 Vienna. And then there was former UN Secretary General and Austrian President Kurt Walheim. Right wing extremism has found fertile ground in this lovely country for generations. So it doesn’t surprise me that, when things get tough, it rears its ugly head again. With Poland and Hungary showing similar tendencies, we could in in for a rough ride in Central Europe over the next few years.
The problem with the far right in Austria and elswhere does not stem from proportional representation. It stems from the fact that voters perceive themselves and their wishes as being ignored by the mainstream parties.
Carl Gardner 29th Apr ’16 – 4:52pm Please look into this more deeply.
For instance are people allocated to parties? or do they join of their own free will?
Tsar Nicholas,
I sort of agree. To me what’s happening is that, for want of a better word, progressive politics has cut itself of from the idea of the nation state in favour of a sort of global interconnectedness to the point where it sometimes seems that any expression of nationalist sentiment is seen as innately dangerous. The problem with this is that governments are elected nationally, not internationally, and mostly in the belief that they will carry out the wishes of the local/national population, rather than what’s best internationally. The rise of the Right in Europe and elsewhere is almost entirely down to mass immigration and the reality that whatever the effect on the economy, the majority of most populations don’t actually want or like it. This is why the razor wire is going up across Europe and why the far right are able to exploit the situation.
Is it racist to be against Islamic culture and for a political party to campaign against Islamic culture, in particular its attitude to women?
Carl: proportional representation does not inevitably lead to grand coalitions. Look at most of Europe, including Germany. It is true that grand coalitions over a long period encourage extremism, but the moderate parties don’t have to go into such coalitions. In Spain, for example, they’ve tended to do deals with small regional or nationalist parties, something also common in India.