Election for Lib Dem Party President: who will win, according to our exclusive survey

libby on the wall3Lib Dem Voice has polled our members-only forum  to discover what Lib Dem members think of various political issues, the Coalition, and the performance of key party figures. The survey closed at 10am today. 747 party members responded – thank you – and we’ll be publishing the full results here.

Tim Farron’s four-year stint as Lib Dem Party President finishes at the end of this year. The contest to succeed him was a three-way election between three female candidates: Sal Brinton, Daisy Cooper, and Liz Lynne.

We asked a series of questions about the party presidency in our survey…

91% in our survey say they will vote! (That won’t be the turnout.)

Three candidates are standing for the post of Party President, an election which is being decided by a ballot of all party members. Do you plan to vote in this election?

    91% – Yes, I plan to vote in this election
    9% – No, I do not plan to vote in this election

Though it’s great to see so many of those signed up to our members’ forum actively engaged in our internal democracy, as I pointed out when we previously polled this means our results below need to be taken with a pinch of salt.

The turnout in the presidential election will not be 91%. The turnout in 2010 was just 42%. We’ve always known our surveys are skewed towards the activist vote (indeed, towards the male activist vote). This only matters if the responses of activists are likely to differ considerably from those of ‘armchair’ members. On most policy issues – when tested against other polls – this appears not to be the case.

However, in an internal election where personality is a key factor I can’t be confident that our surveys are necessarily reliable measures. That said, our surveys previously correctly predicted the two previous winners of the Party Presidency, Tim Farron and, before him, Baroness (Ros) Scott. We’ll find out on Saturday when the official result is announced.

The 91% of those who said they would vote were then asked a follow-up question…

91% have voted or pretty much made up their minds

You have answered that you plan to vote in the election for Party President. The question after this one will ask you to rank the declared candidates in order of your current preference. However, if you still have absolutely no idea who you will vote for, please say so now.

    91% – I have voted / have a good idea of who I will vote for to be party president
    9% – I have no idea idea who I would vote for yet

The vast majority of those who said they would vote have more or less made up their minds when filling in our survey (or have already voted). Unsurprisingly, this is a turnaround from September when less than half who said they would vote had any idea who they’d choose.

The 91% of those who said they would vote and had a good idea of for whom (or who had already voted) were then asked the crunch question using the preferential voting system that will be used in the actual all-member ballot…

Who do you want to be the next Lib Dem Party President?

Daisy Cooper has 52% of first preferences in our survey

    Round 1:
    30% – Sal Brinton
    52% – Daisy Cooper
    18% – Liz Lynne

The winner in this poll is Daisy Cooper, securing more than 50% of first preferences (and therefore second preferences weren’t needed to decide the winner). Congratulations to her on this strong showing. However, I stress the caveat already inserted that our surveys are skewed towards activist members who may well not be representative of the wider ‘armchair’ membership.

In particular, I’m doubtful that Daisy will win more than 50% of the votes in the first stage. If she doesn’t, then first and second preferences will come into play. For the record, then, here’s what happened in our survey at the further stages:

    2nd preferences:
    42% – Sal Brinton
    25% – Daisy Cooper
    33% – Liz Lynne
    3rd preferences:
    30% – Sal Brinton
    22% – Daisy Cooper
    48% – Liz Lynne

Finally, we did ask the 9% of those Lib Dem members who said they won’t be voting at all why not. Among that fairly limited sample, here’s what we found:

    32% – I don’t know enough about the candidates
    9% – I don’t know enough about what the Party President does
    28% – I don’t want to vote for any of the candidates
    4% – I don’t think the role of Party President matters
    26% – Other

Among those who answered ‘Other’, by the way, there was a range of reasons given, mostly due to feeling like they didn’t know enough to make an informed decision and were content to leave th decision to other members.

  • 1,500+ Lib Dem paid-up party members are registered with LibDemVoice.org. 747 completed the latest survey, which was conducted between 22nd and 26th November.
  • Please note: we make no claims that the survey is fully representative of the Lib Dem membership as a whole. However, LibDemVoice.org’s surveys are the largest independent samples of the views of Lib Dem members across the country, and have in the past offered accurate guides to what party members think.
  • For further information on the reliability/credibility of our surveys, please refer to FAQs: Are the Liberal Democrat Voice surveys of party members accurate? and polling expert Anthony Wells’ verdict, On that poll of Lib Dem members.
  • The full archive of our members’ surveys can be viewed at www.libdemvoice.org/category/ldv-members-poll
  • * Stephen was Editor (and Co-Editor) of Liberal Democrat Voice from 2007 to 2015, and writes at The Collected Stephen Tall.

    Read more by or more about , , , or .
    This entry was posted in LDV Members poll and Party Presidency.
    Advert

    11 Comments

    • Perhaps whoever wins will be able to veto fundraising merchandise which includes a Christmas Card which seems to feature a snowman made out of ‘yellow snow’. Taking the p…..?

    • Angela Davies 27th Nov '14 - 9:41am

      I am delighted to see Daisy Cooper get such a strong showing in the survey. Hopefully the actual ballot will be just as successful for her.
      She is young fresh and untainted by the past

    • matt (Bristol) 27th Nov '14 - 10:16am

      Angela, I voted for Daisy, but I can’t help but wonder if that’s what some Conservatives thought about Chloe Smith before she was eaten alive by Paxman. If Daisy is elected, she will need the sympathy, backing and help of more experienced ‘insiders’ to truly represent the party and achieve her aims.

    • @Nick Barlow, I ran the ballot again, removing a candidate each time to see where the second preferences transferred to.
      Sal -> 92 Daisy – 70 Liz – 30 Exhausted
      Daisy -> 183 Sal – 108 Liz – 47 Exhausted
      Liz -> 50 Sal – 45 Daisy – 19 Exhausted

    • Chris Burden 27th Nov '14 - 6:18pm

      I voted 1st pref. for Sal Brinton because she was the only one who seemed to understand the role of Party President, complete with clearly worked out plan. That is not to say that the other candidates were not outstanding in many ways but that they both seem to be pitching for another role, involving lots of campaigning etc. but not for Party President.

    • “Untainted by the past” is an odd phrase. Anyone who’s been around a bit and handled plenty of difficult issues will have some “taints”.

    • Does this indicate a very high turn out of the more than 40,000 members?

      Saturday 29th November 2014 We were expecting a result “around midday”.
      Then at 9.37 this morning we were told by LibDem Press Office that an anouncement would be made at 2pm.
      It is now just after 3.30pm and we are being told an announcement will be made at 4pm

    • 5pm and still no result.
      I had assumed that this was one election that a Liberal Democrat could win without any trouble. But ……,

    One Trackback

    Post a Comment

    Lib Dem Voice welcomes comments from everyone but we ask you to be polite, to be on topic and to be who you say you are. You can read our comments policy in full here. Please respect it and all readers of the site.

    If you are a member of the party, you can have the Lib Dem Logo appear next to your comments to show this. You must be registered for our forum and can then login on this public site with the same username and password.

    To have your photo next to your comment please signup your email address with Gravatar.

    Your email is never published. Required fields are marked *

    *
    *
    Please complete the name of this site, Liberal Democrat ...?

    Advert



    Recent Comments

    • User AvatarOnceALibDem 20th Jul - 11:16pm
      "we had the best [local election results] overall for us in fifteen years." Well not if you scratch the surface. Net losses in the north...
    • User AvatarCallum Robertson 20th Jul - 11:15pm
      In response to PJ, in your opinion isn’t actually a quantitative test. Can you point me towards any data that backs your point?
    • User AvatarMichael 1 20th Jul - 10:54pm
      @David Raw Thanks for your kind words. If the Bury result was by your reckoning bad for us then it was horrendous for Labour. We...
    • User AvatarAlex Macfie 20th Jul - 10:38pm
      Catherine M: "Saying “Labour did it too” is not a defence" But they didn't, and it's not what we're saying. Labour has been doing something...
    • User AvatarDavid Raw 20th Jul - 10:16pm
      Trabbys ? One of the few collectable classics that was completely smelly, noisy, ugly and totally nonbiodegradable. Otherwise, quite fun. IFA Club – Wartburg Trabant...
    • User AvatarAndrew Hickey 20th Jul - 10:13pm
      "Vince has ruled out coalitions" He has also repeatedly called for a government of national unity and talked about working with Labour and Tory centrists....