133 Comments

• Flo Clucas 4th May '17 - 11:17pm

  Lab has lost a seat in Wrexham to Ind. Could portend a bad night in Wales for them

• Steve Atkinson 4th May '17 - 11:30pm

  Don’t forget Liverpool City Region Mayor too & our great candidate, Carl Cashman.

• Caron Lindsay 4th May '17 - 11:39pm

  @Steve: Just sorted it before I saw your comment. I had him in and then lost him in a laptop crash.

• Ian Patterson 4th May '17 - 11:51pm

  Gain in Monmouthshire from labour

• Neil Woollcott 4th May '17 - 11:51pm

  First gain of the night

• Ian Patterson 5th May '17 - 12:03am

  And now lose one in Monmouth to Tories!!!!

• Paul 5th May '17 - 12:07am

  Sad, but we can’t win everything

• Hywel 5th May '17 - 12:10am

  Vote 2012 reporting a result in Wrexham Garden Village with an 81 (eighty one)% swing from Labour. Fair to say it seems some local factors were in play (apparently Ind winner was the ex- Labour cllr)

• Hywel 5th May '17 - 12:11am

  @Paul – typical of the lack of ambition of the Farron leadership….. 🙂

• Ian Patterson 5th May '17 - 12:28am

  We hold Offa in Wrexham!

• Ian Patterson 5th May '17 - 12:42am

  Tories gain Blandford North from us. Dorset?

• malc 5th May '17 - 1:06am

  Early results in England:

  Conservatives 45 seats (+21)
  Labour 11 (-15)
  Liberal Democrats 4 (-2)
  Independent 3 (+2)
  Greens 1
  Ukip 0 (-6)

• malc 5th May '17 - 1:09am

  Early results in Wales:

  Labour 36 seats (-1)
  Independent 16 (-1)
  Conservative 9 (+1)
  Liberal Democrat 6 (+2)
  Plaid Cymru 2 (-1)
  Green 0
  Ukip 0

• Peter Watson 5th May '17 - 1:30am

  Has anybody publicly set a threshold for proof of #LibDemFightBack?
  There are some interesting LDV articles from the corresponding (English) local elections 4 years ago, establishing some sort of baseline for comparison with this year’s results:

  “Given the party looks set to adopt a ‘keep what we’ve got’ strategy for 2015, we look on track to achieve just that.”
  https://www.libdemvoice.org/local-elections-2013-live-blog-34371.html

  “Overall, at a projected 14%, this is the worst Lib Dem local election vote, down (albeit only a little) on even the last two dire years. … What is clearly the case is that the Lib Dems are being driven further and further back into our areas of core support. We are clinging on, as only cockroaches know how, to our bastions. That’s why today’s local elections on a uniform swing would see the party retain some 50 MPs”
  https://www.libdemvoice.org/lib-dem-local-elections-2013-analysis-34379.html

  “the Lib Dems made a net loss of 124 councillors on Thursday … the party would have retained 50 MPs if (and it’s a big if) the public voted like this in 2015”
  https://www.libdemvoice.org/local-elections-2013-graphics-34380.html

  “A year or two ago even if we worked hard we didn’t win: now our message is getting a hearing again. We are back in the saddle.”
  https://www.libdemvoice.org/nick-clegg-back-in-the-saddle-34390.html

  North of the border I guess the baseline for today’s results is here: https://www.libdemvoice.org/first-thoughts-on-the-scottish-local-election-results-28391.html

• Steve Way 5th May '17 - 1:41am

  I’ve been working late but thought I’d check the early results before turning in. It’s good to see Labour are already trotting out the excuses, according to Barry Gardiner four years ago was a high water mark for Labour in Wales….

  I read that as “we think we’ve done rubbish!!!”.

• JR 5th May '17 - 1:46am

  The early results suggest a Conservative landslide in England. Let’s hope that pockets of Lib Dem strength show up in later results.

  UKIP is being wiped out by the Conservatives. This suggests that it is going to very difficult going up against the Conservatives in seats that had a substantial UKIP vote in 2015.

• David Pocock 5th May '17 - 1:54am

  Don’t look so good. I hope it is better than these way results show. Fed up of sad elections.

• Chris Moore 5th May '17 - 1:59am

  Leave voters going en masse to Tories.

• Al Emery 5th May '17 - 2:00am

  What’s this ? Last time these seats were fought the results were dire for us. And now, in both England and Wales, we’re doing even worse ! I thought we were predicted to get 100
  plus net gains. What the hell is going on ?!

• David Pocock 5th May '17 - 2:05am

  Not sounding good in south west but we could become second party in Essex passing labour according to sky news

• JR 5th May '17 - 2:09am

  Our vote share is up, but the Conservative vote share is up even more, so we are losing seats.

• Dan 5th May '17 - 2:23am

  This shouldn’t really be a surprise – we seem to be letting the Tories dictate the topic of debate (Europe), as such we are still fighting the last war. The Leave argument has already won that one, and there is very little (nothing, realistically) that can be done to change that. Unless we turn the focus away from Brexit and onto domestic policy, and come up with a story for how we would make a post-Brexit Britain fairer than the Tories will, we are not going to make significant inroads at the GE. Brexit itself is the wrong fight (particularly here in the SW).

• Peter 5th May '17 - 2:31am

  These results already tell us what our strategy should be
  Aim at getting 20-25 seats
  Not in the West Country but places like Cambridge Twickenham Bath Bermondsey NE fife Edinburgh west , St Albans etc..We ain’t going to gain against the Tories in rural areas and may loose some…so all resources should be poured into Urban / Young demographic seats in my view

• Roger Billins 5th May '17 - 2:39am

  Just come back from the count in Stratford upon Avon. A Tory Tsunami prevented us from gaining any seats but we held our own. UKIP votes all went Tory and Labour ceased to exist. Very depressing. I see the Tories winning 400 seats at the GE.

• Lorenzo Cherin 5th May '17 - 2:40am

  The results are not the only issue, the issue is there is not only one issue !

  We , the party of over a hundred years of Liberal history and decades of social democratic too, are not the UKIP of the centre left , or the centre , moderate and radical we should be!

  Tim is an excellent man and communicator .As are others in our party.

  He and we should recognise batting for Britain does not mean only bashing Brexit !

• John Minard 5th May '17 - 3:07am

  The danger is that it’s no longer ‘the 49’ but the rather dispersed 1/3 or even 1/4 of that who are still adamant about a Brexit replay. Divide them evenly between the main parties and non-voting, gives the Lib Dems a potential of 6-8%!!! We need to campaign on the other key issues as well as “the shape of Brexit”. There’s a lot to be said even for being not-Tory, and not-Labour in this election but most people accept Brexit now and want to get on with it and want the best deal for Britain – regrettably framed as “us against them” and we could be seen as being for “them”!!

• Jon Eguia 5th May '17 - 4:12am

  As of 4:00am, Gains from Conservatives in England:
  10 by LibDems
  1 by Labour
  1 by Green
  So I’d say a message to convey to any progressive: only LD win from conservatives and bring more progressives and fewer tories to power.

• Gareth Wilson 5th May '17 - 4:12am

  @John

  Disagree with that – we should be a principled party that makes bold policy decisions that differentiate us from the others. Build our core vote.

  As a candidate out on the doorstep I’m explaining we want as close a relationship with Europe, stay in the single market and offer a ref on the terms of the deal. Its a logical position, we’re fully accepting the result still.

• James 5th May '17 - 5:20am

  Nasty party gaining from nastier party – what a surprise *sigh*. Real anger from some Leavers against us but I think that’s a badge to wear with pride…

• Alasdair Brooks 5th May '17 - 6:25am

  Looks like a fairly mixed bag so far; a respectable increase in vote share, and some solid individual results, but a slight fall in overall number of seats. Let’s hope we don’t get a repeat of that combination in the GE. I’ve been concerned for some time that some of the projections over our gains in June are a little optimistic; the local election results may offer cause for some reassessment.

  I’m waiting for my own result in Staffordshire – though my realistic aspiration is to finish a distant second in a solidly Tory seat.

• Fiona 5th May '17 - 7:32am

  It seems apparent that many people were voting on national issues, not who would make the best local councillors, but I’m not sure there is much we can do about that without the investment of huge resources.

  In Scotland we had votes for 16 and 17 year olds, which I’m theoretically in favour of, but it didn’t seem like many bothered from what I saw. I got the strong impression that many, not just the younger voters, were voting based on national or constitutional issues, which must be incredibly frustrating for hard-working constituency councillors of all colours.

• Philip Rolle 5th May '17 - 8:03am

  Absolutely agree with previous contributors that the focus need to be switched away from “fighting the last war”. These local elections should be seen as useful to the Lib Dems because they have given you an early warning that your base offer is one that even some of the party’s traditional supporters are going cooler on. It is not too late to change tack in time for the general election. Lib Dems need to appeal to the 100%, not the 48%. This was self evident, and it is a shame that it takes a poor election result for the penny to drop. While Gareth Wilson is right to say the party should be making bold policy decisions that differentiate the party from other offers, he is wrong to think that offering continuity on Europe will be seen as such a policy by the electorate. The bold offers from the party must come on health and social care, on taxation and the future of employment, on climate change and political reforms, such as the Lords, recall rights, donations and voting rights.

• Nick Baird 5th May '17 - 8:06am

  In Gloucestershire we held our seats but didn’t make any gains. However the Tories have destroyed Labour, cementing their overall control of the County Council. In Cheltenham we held 10 of the 13 divisions, and were a close second in the remaining 3 (only 51 votes in it in one division). Maybe the collapse of the Labour vote will encourage their few remaining supporters to lend us their vote in the GE?

• CassieB 5th May '17 - 8:11am

  Echoes of Scotland, where ALL the indy supporters voted SNP in 2015 and the union voters were split between three other parties, resulting in an SNP landslide.
  May knows what she is doing as far as domestic political self-interest is concerned.

  That said, a very quick glance shows the three useless Labour councillors in my local ward all survived and Labour losses at first glance look to be to mostly to Independents. Some of whom are ex-Labour, de-selected by the party. Seems business as usual in this bit of South Wales!

• bob sayer 5th May '17 - 8:31am

  Our stance on Europe is right but it is also clear that we need to concentrate more on the effects that are likely to happen if the Tory/UKIP/BNP/EDL consortium gain power. The need for homeless issues to be addressed,the NHS and Social care,Mental Health.We have good stories to tell lets not be scared of taking this dreadful woman on and expose the frailties of her position.

• Peter 5th May '17 - 9:04am

  Our first priority is to win seats.

  From all the canvassing I am doing in a blue collar (Labour held ) seat the Tory vote is rock solid behind May, and the Labour vote is pouring to her (or won’t vote) . It won’t change before the election what ever we say because they are only voting on one thing : “Teresa May is the best PM to deal with the negotiations” and “Corbyn is useless”. Issues like mental health and homelessness and even the NHS will maybe dislodge a few but will not win seats. As I said earlier our only hope of winning seats is to pour resources into seats like Cambridge, Twickenham, Bermondsey, Bath etc. and solidify the young and the urbanites who are passionately anti brexit and want a second referendum.. Changing our stance now would have no effect at all in my opinion.

• Katharine Pindar 5th May '17 - 9:08am

  Excellent result for Rebecca Hanson, who was our candidate in the Copeland by-election; she gained the Cumbria county council seat of Cockermouth North, where she lives, with ease.

• nvelope2003 5th May '17 - 9:09am

  These results seem to bear out what I have said all along. We collapsed in 2015 because we opposed the more right wing policies of UKIP and the Conservatives, not because we did not fight against them. After a long peiod of Labour rule from 1997 to 2010 the voters wanted a move to the right and the further right the better. Cameron was not popular but Theresa May is just what many Conservative/UKIP voters have been yearning for and now they have got what they wanted. Some local council by election wins, many due to local factors, have deceived the leadership and many members into believing the party was gaining ground. In Somerset we have lost ground in a way that we did not even in 2013, despite gaining a couple of seats. Very depressing and partly due to the obsession with Brexit. It is sad that salvation will only come from a further period of economic problems and boredom with Tory rule by 2022 after 12 years in office. As for tuition fees, how many students actually voted as compared to the millions of angry poorer pensioners, many of whom resented having to pay for them and thought the students were having too good a time at their expense.

  The problem for the centre left is that many voters see their plans as costing a lot of money with little benefit for them personally but a lot for the people who are employed in the public centre, subsidised railways etc who can afford to go on strike to get even more.

• john 5th May '17 - 9:21am

  Let’s be honest, awful results so far.

• Christopher Haigh 5th May '17 - 9:25am

  @nvelope2003, spot on analysis my friend. We are in the middle of a huge right wing backlash in this country. Opposition to it is fragmented between rival parties harbouring petty disagreements with each other. However the situation is getting extremely serious now as the lunatics really are taking over the asylum.

• Jonathan Linin 5th May '17 - 9:28am

  I remember 1987 when the local elections took place a month before the General election. The turnout was much higher than we were expecting, with Tory supporters turning out in much greater numbers than normal. I stood in a seat which the previous year had been won comfortably with 600 votes, I polled 850 votes and lost. When the General election took place a few weeks later the ward results reflected the local election pattern.
  I suspect that any benefit from a differential turnout that the recent enthusiasm for the Lib Dems cause might have given us was cancelled out because of the General election.
  I think the message is that the proximity of the general election has hurt our local election results but gives us a much more realistic assessment of where to concentrate resources for the General election.

• Philip Rolle 5th May '17 - 9:45am

  It does @ jonathan but should the party be aiming to do that? Doesn’t it sound like preaching to the converted? By all means target Richmond and Twickenham but surely the party must appeal to a broader audience. On its present strategy the party has little hope of winning much in the south west, the Welsh Marches or most of the north. The other parties will be able to portray Lib Dems as appealing only to a metropolitan elite. It’s profoundly unambitious but also risky as it could turn rural voters off the party for a generation if your opponents manage to rebrand you as a party not listening to the shires.

• Martin Clarke 5th May '17 - 9:48am

  I hope the results today put the idea of a progressive alliance to bed. The biggest problem I see with it is that you are effectively saying ” Vote Liberal, get Corbyn”.

  Corbyn is so unpopular I see the other parties getting dragged down rather than Labour being pulled up.

• El Sid 5th May '17 - 9:54am

  @ John minard: “The danger is that it’s no longer ‘the 49’ but the rather dispersed 1/3 or even 1/4 of that who are still adamant about a Brexit replay. Divide them evenly between the main parties and non-voting, gives the Lib Dems a potential of 6-8%!!!”

  You guys were warned and that’s exactly what I think has happened. British people are naturally quite cautious and conservative. Brexit is a huge risk against the status quo like independence was in Scotland. Half the 48% didn’t vote remain because of a deep love for the EU but fear of the consequences, but now the decision to leave has been made by the majority they have accepted it. If you lost a quarter of your vote due to trying the have a rerun and gained 4% nationally that will leave the party screwed. Because nationally that is 8% -2% + 4% = 10% which is an improvement in the popular vote. But in a lib dem seat that is 40% -10% + 4% = 34% (assuming the seat voted 52% to leave).

• theakes 5th May '17 - 10:04am

  I won’t say it. Yet another night of expected disappointment but Professor Fisher was on the right lines forecasting 30 losses for our party. Seems amazing that say 4 weeks ago we were hoping for a Friday morning of success at Gorton followed by dozens of gains at the local level. We should know so much better. The portents for the General must be well…………. an odd gain and stand by for more losses, end result 5 MPs perhaps. We are compeletely up against it, we need a miracle.

• john 5th May '17 - 10:11am

  theakes

  ‘We are completely up against it, we need a miracle.’

  Norman Lamb to the rescue, gravitas etc. ?

• nvelope2003 5th May '17 - 10:11am

  Yes just concentrate on the seats we held last time and a few others where prospects are reasonably good. Mrs May knew we might do well in 2020 when things could be going badly for her party so she decided to finish off the Liberal Democrats once and for all and a poor showing this year will make things harder than they were before.
  Labour seems to have done less badly than predicted but very much in line with my expectations as expressed here previously. UKIP has done much worse than I thought but the Liberal Democrats have actually polled better in many places but failed to win seats because the Conservatives have done spectacularly well at the exepnse of UKIP.

  It would not be advisable to align with Labour at present but looking at the results this morning some sort of loose arrangement with the Greens would be advantageous as they have done well in medium size rural towns such as Frome at our expense. Why do we need to fight every seat, especially those where a lost deposit is almost guaranteed ? Save the money for seats where we can at least poll a lot of votes and let the Greens have a free run. They are opposed to Brexit and Liberal Democrats will only split the anti Brexit vote. We should not have a formal pact as this would imply support for their other policies which have only modest following among voters.
  Labour as we have known it could be finished despite suffering only a modest decline. Its problems predate Corbyn because its policies lack backing from its traditional supporters who seem to be deserting to the Conservatives, fed up with Labour’s perceived concern with welfare benefits and public sector workers.

  The Liberal Party was still polling almost 30% in the 1920s. Despite the rise of the Labour Party they were getting only about 1% more but those votes were concentrated in particular areas, whereas the Liberals were spread widely as they were until 2010. The only chance of success is to concentrate on areas of strength and stop obsessing with left wing policies. We already have a left wing Labour party and the voters do not need another one.

• Malcolm Todd 5th May '17 - 10:11am

  “And it seems, incredibly, that Labour has contrived to lose control of Nottinghamshire County Council. This is pretty bi[g] – I used to live down there and find that incredible.”

  That’s a weird analysis, for two reasons: first, *none* of the results from Notts have been declared yet (they only started counting this morning and have done nothing more than tallied the turnout for some districts so far), so I don’t see how anyone can know that; second, Labour already lost control of Notts in 2009, and regained it in 2013 with a majority of one – so in the circumstances, I think it’ll be pretty remarkable if they do retain control today.
  (You may be misled by your recollections of when you lived here – Labour did indeed control the County Council for 28 years up until 2009; however, for most of that time the County included the City of Nottingham, which remains an absolute bastion of Labour but is no longer part of the County since about 1997.)

• El Sid 5th May '17 - 10:21am

  @theaks. This should have been obvious… saying that the snp are a lot weaker here than they were two years ago so the party has one Scottish seat it could hold and two Scottish seats that it could gain. After this the party really need to do what they should have done after 2015, go away for a year and do honest soul searching and self reflection.

• David Pocock 5th May '17 - 10:21am

  I don’t think we are quite at that level yet. Theakes, our membership has grown, our vote is up a little. Corbyn already is showing signs that he is getting ready to fight the next leadership challenge.

  The war will not be over by Christmas, we just got to get more seats and start the climb back. I am sure we will have more seats after June 8 so we will be in a better position. The death of ukip will mean more time for us in the media and right wing Tories and that means eventually centrist Tory voters will have enough.

  The centre must hold and for now that is us so let’s just keep fighting and you never know, facts on the ground might shift. Not a miracle but solid progress.

• Jayne Mansfield 5th May '17 - 10:35am

  @ Christopher Haig.
  I agree.

  There needs to be careful analysis of the reasons for this backlash.

• John Stone 5th May '17 - 11:01am

  To contrast with Theakes’ doomandgloomery (too much time spent among the Tories on pb.com my friend ;)), is there just a smidge of a chance that a Tory blowout today may just work a little against them in 5 weeks time? They cannot seriously make the case that Corbyn’s Labour presents a real threat. Some people may actually be sufficiently concerned at the scale of one party’s dominance that they may think a bit harder about how they cast their ballot. One can but live in hope.

• Chris Bertram 5th May '17 - 11:07am

  @John Stone: It certainly weakens the “Coalition of Chaos” narrative that May et al have been pushing.

  Still to come also – the CPS decisions on prosecutions for electoral malpractice. Could that be a game-changer?

• David 5th May '17 - 11:08am

  We need to be VERY realistic about how many, and which, seats we can regain on June 8 and if these results force us to wake up and smell the coffee, in that respect at least they are welcome.

• Peter Galton 5th May '17 - 11:10am

  We must understand that what happened in 2015 nearly killed us off, it will take many years to get back to where we were. I hope that we will take stock and get our feet back on the ground and make sure that we help in seats that we have a chance of winning. After our modest gains last year and our by election success since last year I was hoping for at least a slight improvement. I really hope that all those new members we have gained will stay with us over the coming months. Still much to do.

• david 5th May '17 - 11:11am

  I see the main problem is Europe. We have become obsessed with it to the detriment of all other policy issues. I still think that we are correct in our analysis but there is yet no real evidence of the problems that lye ahead. For that reason we are seen as doommongers and get punished. I thought after 2015 the only way is up. Not so. But my god when it all goes pear shaped for the Tories , as it will , at least we will have more members! Keep the faith.

• Bill le Breton 5th May '17 - 11:13am

  The tragedy is that this election is about Brexit (with possibly no trade deal) v No Brexit.

  It could and should have been about the type of Brexit. Out of the EEA-EU or inside the EEAnon-EU.

  And our strategy has contributed to that lost opportunity and the ruinous course the country is on.

  We could have said after June 2016, that everyone knows the Lib Dems first choice, but because of the decision we shall now campaign for our own version of the Norwegian system ie EEA nonEU and to campaign on the benefits of that.

  This election (which was inevitable and which was played for by the Tories over many months) would then have been ‘a straight choice’ between two futures.

  As it is our ‘change the future’ line is not credible, because for almost a year we have banged on about resisting Brexit, which people think is not going to happen. ie we are campaigning on a incredulous line.

  And, as I have warned frequently, our stance is has wobbled over the difficulty of explaining our view on second referendum with our determination to reverse Brexit. Layering this on our reputation for going back on our word in the 2010-15 Parliament has seriously undermined us.

  The irony is that we chose to behave as a party of protest because of the leadership of people who formerly slogged on about how they were pragamtists – again a serious mixed message. And so, in this election, there is no voice of pragmatism.

• David Evans 5th May '17 - 11:30am

  Let’s be honest. For thirty years or more we built a party based on giving people hope for the future and a better way of doing politics than the old two parties. Then came 2010 and our leaders thought that was the old fashioned way and preferred to look like part of the government.

  As a result, we disillusioned lots of people who voted for us and also those who had sympathy for that message. Lots of them went off to the one party who did what it said on the tin, and now they have gone on from UKIP to the Conservatives. And the Conservatives will do whatever they need to win power, stay in power and increase their power.

  The question we need to answer and quickly is how can we get back to what worked, and pretending we don’t have to admit we were wrong and it was a bad mistake and we don’t need to change, will just delay even further the recovery we need to make happen.

• Peter Watson 5th May '17 - 11:34am

  @Bill le Breton (11:13am) @David Evans (11:30am)
  I hope that the party starts to listen and learn from what you have both written here (and repeatedly for a long time before today!).

• Dave Orbison 5th May '17 - 11:54am

  @ David Evans – totally agree.

  @ nvelope2003 “We collapsed in 2015 because we opposed the more right wing policies of UKIP and the Conservatives, not because we did not fight against them. “

  Perhaps the most depressing contribution I have read on LDV. The logic of the argument being then that the LibDem should ape the Tories in order to win more votes. If that is the case we may as well shorten the process and join the Tories, then rejoice in our new found electoral ‘success’. And to what end?

  This analysis completely overlooks the LibDem success in 2010. As the high-water mark for the LibDems in a number of generations nobody could possibly claim the 2010 LibDem manifesto mimicked the Tories – anything but.

  The Tory success is in part down to the collapse of UKIP. The UKIP vote had cost the Tories many marginals over the years and given that the Tories, aided by the media, have wrapped themselves in the flag, I’m not at all surprised that their vote has gone up and that this squeezes the other parties as a proportion of the vote.

  So, it appears the pendulum has swung to the right as it did with Thatcher. I hope the UK opposition parties will stand firm to their core values and continue to offer the electorate hope of a genuine and decent alternative. As with all pendulums, it will swing back. I dread to think what will happen in the meantime but as we have seen before there is life after Tory Governments. Should we walk in the Tories shoes in the meantime? No, thanks.

• Paul Murray 5th May '17 - 11:57am

  @theakes – As I understand it, Fisher’s methodology was based on regression analysis based on results going back to 1993. So it took no account of fudge factors such as the already diminished state of the LD local government base after 2013, nor our “hard working local activists”, or the undeniably good results seen in council by-elections over the last 12 months. And yet his forecast is bang-on the money. This is putting the LDs dangerously into “uniform swing” territory. I would point out that on uniform swing the LD’s would have been wiped out in 2015.

• Paul Murray 5th May '17 - 12:01pm

  @Bill Le Breton – the obliteration of UKIP in these elections should be a salutary warning of the danger of being a single-issue party whose single-issue is regarded by the electorate as a settled matter.

• Pete 5th May '17 - 12:11pm

  I’ve shortened my name that I usually use because I’ve noticed another Peter earlier on this thread.

  David Evans, above, may be right but surely the whole point of a political party is to gain executive power in order to implement policies? “Going back to what worked” is fine if the purpose of the party is to provide a club for Lib Dems. That is what the Labour Left is currently doing, it makes the activists very happy to gain control of the club they have hijacked, but it is never going to make any difference to the rest of the country because they will never gain power.

  The Lib Dem recovery has not materalised and at this point, being 20 seats down can be regarded as a failure. The Labour and UKIP results were widely predicted for solid reasons. With lots of votes being transferred, even the Greens gained seats. The Lib Dems are being punished again.

  I’ve said many times here that the voters don’t like being told that they didn’t know what they were voting for and got it wrong and must vote again. Harping on about reversing Brexit is a vote loser at a time when most Remainers want to get on with it and support May in her negotiations.

• Chris Rennard 5th May '17 - 12:25pm

  Theresa May came to Eastbourne yesterday (where she comes from) targeting Lib Dems and working in a key marginal ward (Upperton) which the Tories must have been 200% confident of gaining. Pat Rodahan held for us by 300 as we held all six of our County seats within Eastbourne.

• Peter Watson 5th May '17 - 12:26pm

  @Paul Murray “the obliteration of UKIP in these elections should be a salutary warning of the danger of being a single-issue party whose single-issue is regarded by the electorate as a settled matter”
  Indeed.
  I wonder if the Lib Dem campaign would have been different and less concentrated on Brexit if it were only for the local elections and Gorton rather than a build up to the General Election, but I suspect not.

• Nicholas Cunningham 5th May '17 - 12:41pm

  What truly depressing results. The Tories wrap themselves in the Union Jack and British public bought it hook and line. With Labour and UKIP in meltdown, and just take a look what’s happening in Scotland, who would think that the Tories could make a comeback there. So more or less the Lib/Dems are treading water, time for some serious strategy rethinking, but when the political tide is running like it is now it’s going to be very difficult to gain traction. Still a week is a long time in politics.

• paul barker 5th May '17 - 12:51pm

  The thing to remeber in all the gloom is that we are not losing seats because our vote has fallen but because UKIP has collapsed & its voters have gone to The Tories.
  Our future lies in replacing Labour & that looks, now, like a long slog.
  Lets wait to get all the results & then spend some time digesting them.

• nvelope2003 5th May '17 - 12:55pm

  Dave Orbison: I was not advocating aping Conservative policies, just saying why we lost support in 2015. The party’s policies in 2010 did result in the loss of 13 seats to the Conservatives, compensated by 8 gains from Labour, giving a net loss of 5 from 62 in 2005 to 57 in 2010. Few people read or understand party manifestos. They feel it is time for a change and change their vote accordingly. It seems that many of them did not like what they actually got and most went over to the Conservatives or UKIP with a small number of our more idealistic supporters going to the Greens and a handful to Labour.
  Eventually, possibly sooner rather than later, the Conservatives will lose support if past experience means anything and we must have credible and popular policies in place to take advantage of any upswing or so we must hope, but we must never propose policies which cannot be implemented or the party will be destroyed. Possibly Brexit will prove to be a disaster but those who make such predictions rarely benefit from doing so and might even be blamed for it.

• Richard Elliott 5th May '17 - 12:59pm

  This is a reasonable result given the headwinds. In addition to the coalition legacy, lib dems are up against a ULIP-Tory merger and a fear factor – in a crisis (brexit) many centre and centre-right voters will pick an authoritarian leader (TM) rather than a perceived weak one (JC). Leadership is the key issue, policies are almost irrelevant. Others above have questioned the range of the Lib Dem message – but the media aren’t interested, it hard enough to get any anti-tory views given the state of the media. 20 seats and 15% share would be a brilliant result.

  I am a non-partisan centre-left voter hoping for both a liberal revival and a non-corbie labour party and a few greens as well. This might take 10 years (unless brexit explodes which it might). The libs are doing a great job – keep at it

  In the short-term the message has to be that the Tories are the new ULIP – we need an opposition to a hard right government. The bigger picture is the long road back

• Christopher Haigh 5th May '17 - 1:01pm

  @nicholascunningham, Nick I have engaged with labour party members on facebook who don ‘t seem to understand that their contempt for Blair and adoration of Corbyn is completely playing to the advantage of the Tories. It is making it extremely difficult for ourselves and greens to attract support away from the Tories. Do you think the situation would be a bit brighter if say Yvette Cooper was labour leader, (but given their massive momentum membership is unlikely to happen) ?

• AngrySteve 5th May '17 - 1:18pm

  @Christopher Haigh
  “but given their massive momentum membership is unlikely to happen”

  Momentum have 20,000 members, whereas Labour have >500,000 members. 96% of Labour party members are not part of Momentum. Corbyn was re-elected, partly, because Labour members are sticklers for procedure. It wasn’t the correct procedure for the PLP to hold a no confidence vote in their leader. I know several Labour members who didn’t vote for Corbyn the first time round but then voted for him the second time because they felt he had been badly treated and hadn’t been given a chance. With a bad election defeat, a better candidate than Owen Smith and the ‘correct’ procedure, Corbyn will lose to whoever stands against him.

  The GE is going to result in an horrific landslide for the Tories and it is likely that the Lib Dems could actually lose seats. This is awful, but at least the country will be rid of UKIP and Corbyn. The battleground for 2022 will be our failing public services and economy, sadly.

• Dave Orbison 5th May '17 - 1:33pm

  nvelope2003 – thanks for your explanation and I see where you are coming from. I agree that the tide will sooner or later change. I do not agree with those who want to attack Corbyn or Labour a) to be frank I support many of their policies and am not impressed with the character assassination/vilification of Corbyn by the Tories and sadly by some contributors to LDV and b) to do could only be welcomed as it all but ensures they remain in power.

  I think too, the LibDems and some Labour MP’s fell into the rather obvious Brexit trap. I say this as a ‘remainer’. Any attempt to ignore the referendum, however spun, was always likely to play badly. Instead of acknowledging issues with the EU as Corbyn tried, the LibDem leadership portrayed themselves as being the sole supporters of the EU. Again, to the delight of the Tories when this translated into Corbyn’s attempt to steer us away from the so-called hard Brexit abyss.

• Steve Way 5th May '17 - 1:34pm

  @Bill Le Breton
  The EEA idea could have worked if the remain side had managed to get across the benefits we receive from the single market during the referendum. Sadly, as with the Indy Ref it was mainly about the dangers of leaving rather than the positives of staying. The public have bought into the fact that the EU was a massive waste of money and telling them they will pay almost as much for far less influence will not, I fear, win enough support.

  I would have liked to have seen a three choice referendum (perhaps using AV) as I believe that leaving the EU but staying in the single market could have won. But then again I would have liked to have seen a more measured approach to leaving over a longer period, something the EU side could have pushed for, allowing us to get to the end of the current budget round (2020 ??). Their insistence on Article 50 being triggered first was a bad for all sides. This would have given the EU 27 and the UK chance to have seen the danger and reality of Brexit and perhaps have found something worth going back the British people with…

• John Stone 5th May '17 - 1:37pm

  It’s looking like we’ve stood still here in Shropshire, but a couple of painfully near misses. We narrowly lost one to the Greens in Shrewsbury and have picked one up somewhere else. Given the poor record of Shropshire Council under its permanent Tory domination, that’s a bit disappointing. But people are voting on national issues.

  We’ve held the main South Shropshire strongholds of Clun, Bishops Castle, Chirbury, Clee and all 3 Ludlow Divisions but we won’t challenge in the Parliamentary seat unless we can do better in Bridgnorth and environs.

  The Tories took Broseley off Labour after the longstanding councillor stood down. We didn’t stand.

• Lorenzo Cherin 5th May '17 - 1:38pm

  Dave Orbison

  Your concerning yourself in the way you do , herein, with the comments by nvelope2003, do show you to be compassionate and yet, miss the point. Of course we should not swing to the right or ape the Tories. But the Liberal position in every country, including, Canada , unless there is a Trudeau in charge, is in the radical centre or moderate centre left.

  In this country a number of elderly, or at least older, now, left wing liberals think because they are and always were left wing, and in the situation of catastrophic results in the post war years, they , a generation managed , through, non ideological means, ie community politics, to gain local results, that meant the Liberal so called revival of that era was proof this was a left wing party.Nonsense ! Grimond was massively to the right of the next generation, as is Steel and many of his close supporters.

  Of course Steel is to the left of the Coalition Clegg, but Nick freed from that straightjacket proves he is a Liberal.The fact is there have always been mainstream centre left and even slightly centre right on some issues, voters, keen to support us.Why, common sense policies and people.We are becoming the UKIP of the Europhiles. Good for a few new members. Lousy for a political party to succeed.

  We need to recognise that the Liberal SDP Alliance was in the centre of a far left Labour party and increasingly right wing government.Jenkins, Williams, especially, and even Steel with less experience, were credible leaders in the mainstream.

  Tim is . He is leading in the wrong way in the wrong direction. Obsessing about anything that May does.We need to stop carping and start leading.

• Manfarang 5th May '17 - 2:03pm

  Dave Orbinson
  What happens in France on Sunday will have a bearing on Brexit.

• Peter Watson 5th May '17 - 2:06pm

  @Lorenzo Cherin “He is leading in the wrong way in the wrong direction. Obsessing about anything that May does.We need to stop carping and start leading.”
  Sadly I have to agree. Away from a slightly confusing mixed “Stop Brexit” / “Stop Hard Brexit” message, the official party line put forward by Tim Farron, Vince Cable, Nick Clegg, etc. in the media seems to be “The Tories will get a big majority so vote Lib Dem to get somebody better than Labour at moaning from the sidelines” (I’m sure that’s not what “effective opposition” is supposed to mean, but given the size of the expected Tory majority the most effective opposition is likely to come from within that party).
  I hope that the Lib Dem manifesto gives them something to campaign for and puts a bit of positivity into their approach.

• El Sid 5th May '17 - 2:06pm

  @paul barker “5th May ’17 – 12:51pm
  The thing to remeber in all the gloom is that we are not losing seats because our vote has fallen but because UKIP has collapsed & its voters have gone to The Tories.”

  Paul I mean absolutely no disrespect and will never post on this site again after the General Election. I’m telling you this because, while I am very angry with the lib dems and this website at the moment, I do not believe that the wholesale destruction of the liberal democrats would be good for the country or British politics. Because at the end of the day this country needs a strong mainstream liberal party. This party needs to:
  1. Accept the voters will and listen to them. Accept the voters are sovereign. Not call them stupid and ask for election re-runs when the voters don’t give them the answer that they want. Because the voters are never wrong.
  2. Stand for the same issues everywhere, not different tunes in different areas.
  3. Have a solid support base due to people actually voting for the party rather than people encouraged to vote to keep the Tories or Labour out.
  4. Treat people as individuals and stand unapologetically for freedom of speech. That means utterly rejecting regressive identity politics, gender quotas and no trying to shutdown uncomfortable points of view, defending not what people say but always defending their right to say it. Identity politics, laws that criminalise free speech and quotas are left wing authoritarian c***.

  Speak to you guys again on the 8th of June.

• David Becket 5th May '17 - 2:20pm

  @ Peter Watson
  It is very similar to the rubbish head/heart campaign at the 2015 General, trying to be all things to all people and end up being nothing to everybody. We have a big and eager membership, we now need Ashdown/Kennedy style leadership, which at the moment is sadly lacking.

• Rebecca Taylor 5th May '17 - 2:38pm

  @Bill Le Breton, “opposing a Tory hard Brexit” and “staying in the single market” , which is LibDem policy essentially means EEA/EFTA style agreement. So perhaps we need to be clearer in stating that?

  In response to others saying the LibDems only have policies on Brexit; I believe we’re proposing a dedicated health & social care tax to properly fund the NHS (Norman Lamb has said this). No other party is being so clear on how we’ll pay for the care people need that is currently horribly underfunded.

• Donald Smith 5th May '17 - 2:39pm

  Just noticing that Britain Elects is tweeting John Curtice’s NEV

  CON: 38% (+3)
  LAB: 27% (-2)
  LDEM: 18% (+7)
  UKIP: 5% (-8)
  (via John Curtice) Chgs. w/ 2015.

  We seem to have advanced nicely in votes (Rallings & Thrasher NEV in 2015 = 10%, 2016 = 14%), in but are not doing well in seats. For what it’s worth R&T predicted before the elections that the NEV would be Con 35, Lab 29, LDm 21, UKIP 8 based on local by-elections. Con doing better than expected, while do a little worse than predicted.

  We need to target our seats and our messages better!

• paul barker 5th May '17 - 2:41pm

  I still say that some people are getting too gloomy before we have all the facts. For the General Election what matters is how our vote share has changed & we dont know that yet.

  As for Labour, they have been taken over by a group who want to build a “mass” Revolutionary Party, they are not incompetent, they just want something different from all previous Labour Leaderships. The new Leadership will not let go & they are not bothered how many MPs they lose. In that sense ” Labour” is dying, the Labour we have known. We will replace them but it will be a long, hard climb.
  How long will be clearer in a few weeks.

• Jonathan Linin 5th May '17 - 2:47pm

  Hate to chip in again but we need to be careful about blaming tactics/leadership/issues etc. It is much simpler than that :
  1) most of our seats or targets are vs the Tories
  2) because of the impending general election the voting was done on national issues (how otherwise would the absolutely dire Surrey Tories do so well), our local campaigning was not so effective.
  3) The UKIP vote collapsed and went to the Tories.
  We are at a Tory high watermark, life is going to be difficult. Keep going, keep recruiting, keep campaigning, things will get better, just maybe not yet.

  For my personal view our views on brexit are not necessarily popular but at least we have a simple issue and a simple message. Tim speaks clearly and staightforwardly. Let’s get some seats back if we can, replace UKIP on question time, knock Labour out of contention in as many seats as possible.. and keep on keeping on.

• Lorenzo Cherin 5th May '17 - 2:49pm

  David

  It is not that we need a particular style of leadership , lacking. Tim, as I have said, in my view, has the energy of Paddy Ashdown, the likeability of Charles Kennedy.

  Tim believes, I reckon, as do many on here, Brexit is like Iraq, therefore an unequivocal position , as with Tim on Brexit, in the vein of Charles on Iraq.

  There are parallels. But looking backwards is not what works.Forward for a better yesterday , is not a good strategy. Even if emphasising the young in our desire for remain , and the EU, is not good enough. The boat has sailed, where are we, it appears, on the shores, booing , not in the boat navigating. Even with the constructive plans and papers from Nick, too often the only coverage is a very animated and at times obsessed seeming , Tim.I like him, respect him, support him. But coming across as a wise, measured, force of reason in a hysterical world is not his forte at present. I want more of the Macron , JFK, Gimond. Thar which says, sensible as seems and does, not hysterical above all !

  In dangerous and divided times , measured can be made exciting by appealing to the majority who know it is the best way.

  May is not that . But she has put on those clothes, and people think they suit her.

  Tim has not even got hold of the clothes yet.

• paul barker 5th May '17 - 2:54pm

  Damn. Just seen the estimates for the National Equivalent Vote. As Steve Fisher (Elections Etc) predicted, the shift in the polls over the last 2 Months made the Rallings & Thrasher predictions for us too optimistic.
  Since 2015 we have been gaining 4% ayear ( 10% – 14% – 18%) which would have been great for 2020.
  On this basis I am downgrading my “prediction” for our performance on June 8th to a vote share of 14% & probably arouns a Dozen MPs. There are another 5 Weeks to go though.

• bob sayer 5th May '17 - 2:57pm

  I have no doubt that there will be stories of derring do after this election but one result had me checking the result. LDV,s own Antony Hook has just won Faversham for a seat on Kent County Council from a 4% base in 2013. Anyone beat that.

• Donald Smith 5th May '17 - 3:10pm

  A further thought about the NEV – Con on 38% – not exactly replicating their opinion poll rating! Yes they are doing well in seats, but not the crushing tide of votes we’ve been led to expect.

• Eddie Sammon 5th May '17 - 3:12pm

  I voted Lib Dem Carl Cashman and didn’t choose a second preference. The party needs to strengthen its strategic game. For starters, it needs to make a break with the ultra remainers who seem to be defending the EU no matter how tough it is becoming towards Britain in the negotiations. We either have: “the EU is right” or “what did you expect?”. Hardly ever a condemnation. I approved of Tim Farron saying he is “a bit of a Eurosceptic” but we need specific criticism of the EU when it is justified.

  None of this was hard to see for an experienced or semi-experienced political activist. Nationalism is popular stuff. You don’t elect a trade unionist who refuses to stand up for the workers and it is similar (but not exactly the same) with political leaders.

• Nigel Bliss 5th May '17 - 3:15pm

  Agree that banging on about Brexit isn’t a vote winner. We largely ignored it in Eastbourne and held all our council seats even though the town voted 57% Leave.

• jason 5th May '17 - 3:15pm

  As an ex Lib Dem member I’d love to hear what the party policies now are on Education, the NHS, Transport, Law and Order, the Environment, Welfare etc. As pro EU as I am, the Party needs to be more distinctive on these other issues, sometimes good ideas win votes, remember Charles Kennedy’s dedicated 1p tax in the pound to fund the NHS. It’s these sorts of ideas the Party now needs to come up with as that’s the best way to bring me back after the debacle of the coalition.

• Adam Cain 5th May '17 - 3:22pm

  A certain amount of over reaction on here.

  These are poor results for us and certainly not what we wanted before the GE. Many of us had got used to by-election wins and had built our hopes up, supported by Rawlins and Thrasher. However, leaving aside the fact that R & T always seem to overstate our share, their predictions were based on those by-election results, i.e. on assuming that these would be relatively normal local elections. Had there been no GE I think they might have not been far off the mark.

  But since the GE was called, these elections became a dry run for the GE. With that GE being a straightforward vote of confidence in the PM to deliver Brexit, only one result was ever likely, both in the GE and in this dry run for it. People will always want an effective government over an ineffective one and the only effective government on offer is Conservative. Navel gazing over whether we would get more support with a more nuanced approach to Brexit, or by producing more non-Brexit policy, is missing the point.

  The public knows there is only going to be one Brexit, Mrs May’s one, for good or ill; and that both the GE and by extension these local elections are about that and that alone.

  We need to tough this out. Our Euro stance is about signalling that while the Tories want to wave flags, pander to anti-immigration rhetoric, and turn the clock back to 1930 while simultaneously gaining all the benefits of globalisation; and while Labour wrings its hands, we remain the party of sensible pragmatic economics, of tolerance, and of engaging with the outside word on terms of equality. This is not so that the deluded masses will return to us gratefully when Brexit fails – they won’t – but so that people remember that we stood up for our principles, whether or not they agreed with us, and that there is such a thing as moderate centrist policy, which we represent.

  If we are still standing, there will come a point when the shine comes off May, when her empty “Strong and stable” and “Brexit means Brexit” slogans wear thin; and where the Labour Party is either a creditable partner for us or is simply no longer a competitor to us.

• bob sayer 5th May '17 - 3:29pm

  Jason
  Come back and argue for them

• Andrew McCaig 5th May '17 - 3:34pm

  Jason,

  Tim Farron called for 1 p on Income Tax to pay for the NHS last autumn, so I would be surprise if that was not in our manifesto

• Bernard Aris 5th May '17 - 3:34pm

  Just check the maps of wins and losses per party on the (annex to the) BBC results liveblog: Labour some patchy wins but loads of losses; and the LibDems gaining in Scotland (Dundee!), Wales and the Southeast; just 7 districts have losses; lets see how the tip of Cornwall turns out..
  Another post on the BBC liveblog gives an estimate of the national results: Tories 38%; Labour 27, Libdems 18% (remember, in 2015 it was barely 8%!), UKIP 5%, but wiped out on the ground. That reminds me of the 1983 General Election result of the Alliance.
  and on yet another post on the liveblog professor Crtice opines that we LibDems have their best result ever since 2010, while Labour has their worst result since 2010 (while local elections are ideal stomping ground for opposition partties).

• Keith Browning 5th May '17 - 3:45pm

  I must be the shortest lived member of the Lib Dem Party, resigning before my membership was ratified. My reasons are outlined below in a resignation letter, but the discussion on James O’Brien’s LBC program mirrored my thoughts. There are now many millions of us who want to STOP Brexit – have a brain – and don’t read the red top rags – but we have been totally disenfranchised. Who can we vote for…??

  My letter of resignation – ‘I have been a vocal supporter of the Lib Dems for a number of years and have been a regular contributor to Lib Dem Voice. I am also an avid supporter of the European Union, seeing that year on year life my improved because of it, and old ‘conservative’ practices were replaced with regulations that suited everyone in Europe. I lived in Portugal (well way from the Brits) during the worst years of the financial crash (2008-13) but never heard the Portuguese complain about the EU, only about the shortcomings of their own government.

  ****

  Therefore my first instinct was to support a cause that we save us from Brexit, and my natural position was to support the Lib Dems, hence for the first time in my life I applied to join a political party.

  From that moment onwards I began to realise I had made a grave error.

  The party seemed split over what tact to take with Brexit – Tim being monumentally mealy mouthed about his position, sitting somewhat on the fence. He later admitted to being a Eurosceptic, which for me was probably the final straw.

  In his first speech he said that the Tories were bound to win, and then made an attack on Jeremy Corbyn. That one statement probably has added 50 seats to the Tory majority.

  The only position that makes sense is to hope the Labour party do well enough to create a hung parliament, again so the Lib Dems hold a balance. Yet the attacks seem to be against the SNP and Labour and everyone apart from the real enemy, the Tories.

  Splitting the anti-Tory vote is going to help no-one and compensating for a 400 Tory majority by saying the Lib Dems had won 20 seats and a 15% share of the vote is not going to save the population from a Tory one party state.

  The Lib Dem strategy committee seem to have doomed us all to a poorer future, when they could have been brave and strategic by leading an anti Brexit coalition.’

• Nicholas Cunningham 5th May '17 - 3:48pm

  Bernard Aris

  Thanks for that, not all gloom and doom, there are positives.

• Bill le Breton 5th May '17 - 3:52pm

  Bernard, you cannot compare local elections with a general election result. We used, as Curtice would remind you, regularly to poll at 25%+ for local elections.

  Rawlings and Thrasher were predicting over 20% for yesterdays elections.

  I am afraid that the ‘best ever’ result since 2010 is not a very high bar to leap over.

• Phil Boothroyd 5th May '17 - 4:12pm

  Bernard I assume the 8% is from the general election vote share – it would be better to compare with the local election vote share which is typically higher. This was 15% last year and 16% the last time these seats were contested – so either way an improvement, but not quite as much. It’s just a shame that with the Tories getting an even bigger increase, this hasn’t converted into more seats.

  It’s all a bit odd though in this round of elections. The Tories appear to be galvanising the leave vote far more effectively than we have galvanised the remain vote, and added into that Corbyn has lost a lot of Labour support. All of which is likely to change by the next time these seats are contested.

• paul barker 5th May '17 - 4:21pm

  I dont think Rallings & Thrasher were “wrong” just out of date, there were hardly any Council byelections in the last 2 Months & the UKIP collapse/Tory rise have come very quickly.
  The 18% we “got” in the Equivalent Vote Share was 4% up on last year, just as last year was 4% up on 2015 (we got 10% in The Locals).
  4% a Year is a slow recovery but it would have been enough to see us taking 2nd place on 2020, probably. Partly why May jumped, possibly.
  If nothing big happens in the next 5 Weeks then I am “predicting” a vote share of around 14%, enough for 12-18 MPs, depending on how other Parties do.
  I still hope we may do better.

• malc 5th May '17 - 4:27pm

  I’m sorry but this is a disaster for the Lib Dems. You started from a low level because the 2013 local elections were poor results. Add that to a dreadful election in 2017 for UKIP and Labour and it’s almost inconceivable that you don’t make gains. This is simply dreadful.

• Nicholas Cunningham 5th May '17 - 4:41pm

  malc

  I don’t see the point being so negative. The result is not great, neither is it horrendous, my glass is half full?

• Peter 5th May '17 - 4:42pm

  You have to look at the seats where the Lib Dems did best in this election: Oxford ,Bath Cambridge Edinburgh West NE fife etc and look at why new people voted for us..

  .It is entirely I think because of our stance on Brexit and no other issue is going to break through this issue in the next 4 weeks..
  So I am sorry we are going to have to target those middle class affluent seats this time and hope and pray we get more than 15 seats and can start to rebuild. At least these result clearly identify the seats where the lib dems should target the money!! none of this 30 seat plus rubbish…. lets try to get a total in double figures with a two in front of it!

• Jayne Mansfield 5th May '17 - 4:48pm

  @ Keith Browning.
  Welcome to the constituency of the disaffected.

  I joined the Labour Party after the coalition, just to give them the income from my membership subs.. I have never attended a meeting. The only outward sign of my changed political allegiance is that there is no Liberal Democrat poster in my garden or window.

  I want the tories out of power but the Liberal Democrats are too busy fighting any opposition to the tories …… on the grounds that there needs to be a strong opposition.

• Tristan Ward 5th May '17 - 5:24pm

  @Jayne Mansfield

  We all want the Tories out of power but may I suggest you decide on your political allegiance in accordance with what you think are the right politics (eg Lib Dem/Green/Labour/other) rather than what are the wrong ones?

• Bill le Breton 5th May '17 - 5:25pm

  Rallings and Thrasher???? All through the night the BBC was saying correctly that our performance was patchy.

  Yes it was patchy because so much of our talent and infrastructure was removed between 2010 – 2015 that our by-election performance was was not going to be a useful indicator of an election when resources could not be concentrated as in a by-election.

  Rawlings and Thrasher persisted in using a model that took our average by-election performance and layered it on all our campaigns yesterday.

  This is the trouble with academics. They love formulae and regression analyses and don’t ‘read’ the politics. We have fewer areas of strength. Full Stop.

  It was also obvious to campaigner types that at least 4/5th of the UKIP vote would go to the Tories. I was pointing this out a few weeks ago, when people here were confident of gains in the SW seats that we lost in 2015. Ditto for an element of the Labour vote – we can now hazard a guess as to what proportion of the Labour vote will go Tory and guess at what element will stay at home.

  Let’s be as realistic as possible and hope the powers that be work out the targets and aren’t sentimental about those who must necessarily be left to their own devices.

  Finally, please more, much more of Cable. And no more Clegg.

• expats 5th May '17 - 5:33pm

  Eddie Sammon 5th May ’17 – 3:12pm………I voted Lib Dem Carl Cashman and didn’t choose a second preference………..

  I note that West Midlands and Tees Valley are now Tory even though there were enough LibDem voters prevent this had their second preference been Labour….

  Congratulations Eddie (and those like you)…These wins have given May’s push for a one party state even more impetus….Just don’t moan when she implements her policies on everything from ‘Hard Brexit’ to Welfare, Child Poverty, NHS, etc….

• nvelope2003 5th May '17 - 5:33pm

  malc: it was a disappointment, not a disaster. Vote share increased but with all the UKIP people voting Conservative, under their sacred FPTP system it was inevitable that the Liberal Democrats would not advance. If our share had gone up more than their’s in the right seats there would have been gains and that did happen in some places but not enough. Liberal Democrats, like Labour, advance most when the Conservative vote share falls as it did in 1997 and 2001. It was too early for the Liberal Democrats and that is why Mrs May went early as she feared a revival in 2020 so decided to kill off the Liberal Democrats before the revival became stronger. Simple really.

• El Sid 5th May '17 - 5:36pm

  Paul. I’ve followed your posts for over a year and would love a response to my post above.

• malc 5th May '17 - 5:54pm

  nvelope2003

  “malc: it was a disappointment, not a disaster.”

  We have to disagree. 2013 was a very poor year for the Lib Dems so it should have been easy to make some gains. Taking into account the current state of the Labour Party and UKIP and still to make significant losses is in my opinion a disaster.

• Christopher Haigh 5th May '17 - 6:07pm

  @angrysteve, thanks for correcting my estimate of the size of labour momentum. You seem to think Corbyn could easily be replaced by the centre ground membership whereas Paul Barker thinks that Corbyn and his descendants are on some irreversible mission with policies that will make the labour party increasingly unpopular and are not too bothered about losing seats. Knowing which one would help a bit .

• Paul 5th May '17 - 6:13pm

  It is fairly clear that had the LibDems have made the correct decision in not following Labour and its supine support of May’s “Irrational and Incompetent” leadership. The Tories have had a field day with the sharp decline in both the UKIP & Labour votes which has sadly impacted Lib Dems seats also.

• Glenn 5th May '17 - 6:51pm

  There are some moderate signs of recovery and at least the cons will probably not get the 400 seats they were crowing about. What the lib dems and labour should do is work to get people out to vote.

• Andrew T 5th May '17 - 7:25pm

  I don’t think we did badly, I haven’t had enough time to study the results but I suspect the announcement of the GE has led to an increase in turnout of the sort of voter who does not usually vote in local elections and votes based on their chosen national party.

  We’ve also had to divert attention towards the GE campaign and we haven’t yet had a chance to release a manifesto so we are lacking national policy with the exception of our European policy.

  I think we would have made the expected 50-100 gains had the GE not been called. Our votes and vote share are up.

• Pete 5th May '17 - 7:31pm

  Let me be controversial and say that the vote has been for Mrs May to get on with her Brexit process. I know that these are local elections but clearly the voters have decided that the national attributes of the parties are the ones that matter in this instance.

• Dave Orbison 5th May '17 - 7:51pm

  @ Keith Browning and Jayne Mansfield
  “Welcome to the constituency of the disaffected”

  Couldn’t agree with you more. Some of the contributions on here make me despair.
  “Talk of the Labour Party being taken over by revolutionaries, Corbyn this, Corbyn that…. Tim Farron wading in with the Tories’ vilification of Corbyn. Well that worked out so well.

  Two years of LibDem attacks on Corbyn nasty, personal attacks has no doubted added to Labour’s problems and no doubt the Tories thank you for it but what have the LibDems gained? The Tories played the LibDems like a fiddle in the Coalition and they continue to do so.
  Yet even now there are some on LDV who still want to focus on Corbyn as if May is irrelevant. Have they forgotten who is in Government, whose policies are hurting the vulnerable and dismantling our public services? In addition, rather than obsess with finding fault with other opposition parties isn’t it time for some home truths in the LibDem Party. There is obviously so much that needs to be fixed with LibDems.

  What are the party’s policies for the General Election? Still waiting. It’s now just four weeks to go and we are still yet to see something concrete from the party apart from a hopeless broadcast of a chart suggesting that the LibDems are on the up-and-up. By contrast Corbyn is plowing ahead with Labour’s campaign. Many here may not agree with his polices, they might not like the guy but at least he and the Labour Party cannot be accused of having nothing to say.

  It’s clear that the LibDem leadership do not know which way to turn. Seriously if the threat of a landslide Tory Government does not give a clue as to where the party should focus then what is the point of the LibDems?

• DJ 5th May '17 - 8:15pm

  I was massively impressed in the Lib Dem campaign for Penylan and with the Labour campaign for Gabalfa. However, in each of these areas the opposition was the other party while Cardiff north remains more naturally Tory. Someone must take the risk of removing the conservative from Cardiff.

  I am starting to see what the Greens are saying about pre-planned targeting.

• Peter Watson 5th May '17 - 8:45pm

  According to the article at the top of this page, “The last Scottish and Welsh elections were in 2012 and they were grim for us. We lost more than half our councillors in Scotland and pretty much half our councillors in Wales. The county elections in 2013 were pretty grim too, with 124 losses.”
  Yesterday’s elections led to 28 fewer Lib Dem councillors in England, 3 fewer in Scotland, and 11 fewer in Wales. Albeit with an apparently improved vote share, how can these results be considered as anything other than “grim”.
  And this was against a weak Labour party and with a campaign playing heavily on an issue apparently supported by 48% of the electorate.
  Having followed the same strategy for the last 15 months, the one that failed in June 2016 and again yesterday, perhaps it is time to try something different for the next 5 weeks. What have you got to lose?

• CassieB 5th May '17 - 9:22pm

  Dave O: ‘In addition, rather than obsess with finding fault with other opposition parties isn’t it time for some home truths in the LibDem Party?’
  Best ironic laugh of the day. Given Labour have spent the last seven years trying to ‘punish’ the Lib Dems for the coalition, even though doing so has massively helped the Tories.
  It’s hard to be on the receiving end of all that superior sneering ad bile and not end up disliking those responsible.
  Labour would do better to focus on its own problems (which aren’t of our making), but gives the impression it would rather wipe us out than act as a strong opposition to the Tories.

• expats 5th May '17 - 11:51pm

  CassieB 5th May ’17 – 9:22pm……… Given Labour have spent the last seven years trying to ‘punish’ the Lib Dems for the coalition, even though doing so has massively helped the Tories………It’s hard to be on the receiving end of all that superior sneering ad bile and not end up disliking those responsible……….Labour would do better to focus on its own problems (which aren’t of our making), but gives the impression it would rather wipe us out than act as a strong opposition to the Tories……..

  Rather a rewrite of what has actually happened…LibDem Leaders and LDV has reserved most of it’s attacks on Corbyn….
  There have been numerous of speeches/articles condemning Corbyn/Labour for a ‘sell-out’ over Brexit and promising to replace them with a coherent, strong LibDem opposition….
  Corbyn/Labour for the most part have ignored LibDems and focussed their attacks on May….
  The internal problems of Labour has, it’s true, made them a weak opposition and our position has reinforced that view and at the same time strengthened May….Yesterday’s results have shown that Labour’s demise at local level has not helped us; we lost seats in what was promised to be a resurgence of our party….

  June 8th promises to be a long hard night for Labour but, based on yesterday’s result, they won’t be the only party suffering…

• Dave Orbison 6th May '17 - 12:34am

  CassieB but when the LibDems propped up a Tory Government, supported austerity policies that disproportionately affected the vulnerable and broke their own manifesto committments they ceased to be LibDems in the eyes of the electorate and were to many, to all intents and purposes, an extension of the Tory party.

  Even now cant’t you see that? I voted LibDem like many in 2010 and may we’ll have been prepared to support them in future years. The demise of the LibDems is not the fault of the Labour Party but entirely due to the catastrophic misjudgement of Nick Clegg and co based on their actions, and theirs alone. To blame Labour for the LibDems own misfortune beggars belief. But don’t take my word for it why not ask the thousands that left the party or stopped voting LibDem. You think that was down to Labour? Really?

• Philip Rolle 6th May '17 - 2:06am

  Being in politics is about power and influence. The Lib Dems were quite right to go into coalition with the Conservatives in 2010 and they did a pretty good job when they did. If David Laws had been able to stay in the cabinet, they would have achieved even more. Unfortunately, many supporters of the party are natural opposers and contrarians and were unlikely ever to be able to accept attempt to govern.

• CassieB 6th May '17 - 9:58am

  Expats and Dave O: regardless of what I can or can’t ‘see’, my point is that having been on the receiving end of Labour supporters’ sneering, venom, superiority complex etc for seven years, it gets a bit wearing. (Before that, they just looked down on us as irrelevant).

  The endless ‘shut down all arguments’ mantra ‘you propped up the Tories’, for instance – which Dave O repeats. As annoying as The Will Of The People. and ‘Strong and Stable’.
  Yes, I’ve heard it a billion times; I’ve answered it, when I’ve thought there was a faint chance the other person might listen. Only to get back: ‘yes, but you propped up the Tories’.
  All while failing to see that smashing us for our apparent disloyalty handed the Tories power in 2015.
  They’d probably have hated us if we HAD ‘propped up Labour’ instead in 2010, unless we’d been their poodles in government, as they accuse us of being to the Tories.

  As for Corbyn… do you not realise there are millions of Labour supporters who think he is a disaster for the party and democracy? His own party is riven badly by his leadership, all to the gain of the Tories. We’d like to see a meaningful opposition (whoever is in power) and he’s not the man to provide it.

• Dave Orbison 6th May '17 - 11:30am

  CassieB – I get it you don’t like the sneering, being looked down on, venom or superiority complex of your opponents. I understand it’s irritating. Has it never occurred to you that this is a two-way street? Just look at the language used by many on LDV towards Labour and especially Jeremy Corbyn. Indeed, and seemingly without appreciating the irony of your complaint you end with an attack on Corbyn. And you complain about others not listening when it appears you don’t listen to yourself?

  I have consistently argued that LibDems (and Labour by the way) should have clear policies and focus on promoting them and by all means debating them between themselves. This, I believe, is the best way to campaign and counter the sloganeering of the Tories. I would like to believe that whatever the differences in policy between Labour and LibDems that it is nothing to the gulf with Tory policy and their merciless attacks on the vulnerable and public services.

  I am dismayed when Tim Farron joins with the Tories in making personal attacks on Corbyn. I have the highest regard for Corbyn who has always risen above this nasty, petty type of politics. You seem to imply that weak Labour leadership is guaranteed to deliver a Tory Government. If so I bound to ask given Tim Farron’s eagerness to join in with the Tories in this way just what strategic aim does he hope to achieve? According to your logic, not mine, surely another Tory Government.

• Dave Orbison 6th May '17 - 12:09pm

  Phillip Rolle – “Being in politics is all about power and influence…. Unfortunately, many supporters of the party are natural opposes and contrarians and were unlikely ever to be able to accept attempt to govern.”

  CassieB You state you are fed up with the sneering and being patronised over re the ‘propping up’ the Tory Government in the Coalition. As I replied, this cuts both ways. Indeed, when it comes to patronising statements, Phillip Rolle piece above must surely rank as one of the best or should I say worst?

  To suggest that opposition to the Coalition was driven by some desire to be ‘anti’ for the sake of being ‘anti’ and against Government for the sake of it, is beyond fanciful and of course hugely insulting. Insulting not just to the likes of me who voted LibDem because we believed in the polices then advocated by the LibDems but to all those hardworking party workers and activists whose years of industry were trashed as a result of the political naivety of the LibDem leadership.

  Danny Alexander and others including several on LDV went through excruciating contortions in an effort to justify the broken pledge on student fees. Very often relying on the argument that “We had to bear in mind they were not the Government just junior partners. That this promise could only possible be considered to be realised only if the LibDems formed the Government outright.

  Well OK so that was then. So what can we learn from that? For example what are the electorate to make of the recently announced LibDem policy of “1p on tax for the NHS”. Tim Farron has ruled out a coalition with Labour the only party that has any chance of forming a Government and supporting such a policy. So how will the LibDems bring this about commitment?

  Even after pursuing a war of attrition with Labour in the GE and the LibDems were successful in replacing say 20-30 Labour MP’s with 20-30 LibDems whilst the Tories remained in power just how will this assist with “the 1p pledge”? Yes, Phillip you are right no power no ability to change the course of events. And that CassieB, is precisely why propping up the Tories in Government in the Coalition, and attacking personal attacks on Corbyn now so as to ensure another Tory win is so frustrating.

• expats 6th May '17 - 1:55pm

  CassieB,
  Corbyn doesn’t ‘do’ personal attacks which, in today’s political climate (run by the likes of Crosby) is rather old fashioned…
  I’ve lost count of the number of LDV posts attacking him. Labour, under Milliband, fared little better in this forum….
  If anything Labour, under both leaders, appear more restrained (especially considering the record of our leadership and many members during the coalition years).
  I understand the constraints of being a junior partner in a “forced marriage” but, and it’s a big BUT, as a party we didn’t give the impression of being in such a relationship…Public statements about “75% of coalition policies being LibDem”, and our ministers applauding the very policies we were supposed to oppose, showed a public face of a party more than happy with the relationship…

  However, back to the ‘oncoming storm’…..As Dave Orbison writes, a divided opposition with neither side even acknowledging the other’s policies, will ensure a future where the problems caused by flouncing out of the EU (by being ‘bloody awkward) will be paid for by those least able to afford the cost…

• CassieB 6th May '17 - 2:41pm

  Expats, I’m not saying we got it right in coalition. Plenty of mistakes were made. Just that years of being berated by Labour supporters have left me, for one, less than well-disposed towards them than I am towards the Tory right.

  The idea of opposition parties uniting against the incumbent only works if the opposition parties have enough in common. Given Labour can’t even make its mind up where it stands on the EU (and don’t forget their last government’s policies on ID cards, detention without charge, etc)…
  I’ve mentioned Scotland elsewhere. The SNP benefits hugely from opponents of independence being divided. But, I don’t think anyone is suggesting an electoral alliance between the Tories and Labour to reduce the SNP’s power.

• Andrew McCaig 6th May '17 - 2:57pm

  Dave Orbison and the other Lab/Lib Dem switchers.

  1) Corbyn: I do not like the Corbyn-bashing that sometimes happens on here either. However the reality is that between him and his MPs they have dug their own grave, and blaming the Lib Dems for that in the smallest iota is disingenuous in the extreme.

  2) Coalition: The Lib Dems made some foolish, foolish mistakes in coalition which have been extensively discussed on this forum many times. I am still waiting for one of you Labour voters to say “ok, but credit to the Lib Dems for the pupil premium, and for all the “green crap” the Tories have systematically dismantled since

  3) the day I stop trying to unseat “progressive” Labour MPs is the day they wholeheartedly embrace PR. Until then we Liberal Democrats have to try and get our fair share of representation any way we can…

• nvelope2003 6th May '17 - 4:39pm

  malc – the Conservatives were not polling at 48% in 2013 and UK was splitting their vote. They are united now and the result is not to our advantage, There were gains and losses in the same local authority area such as Somerset where Labour and the Greens, which did not used to stand, put up a full slate and gave the Conservatives several victories by narrow margins.

• nvelope2003 6th May '17 - 4:56pm

  Cassie B: Since its inception Labour has made a point of refusing to join any coalitions except in wartime, and not even then in 1914-18, except for a few MPs. This obduracy has paid off and if the Liberals had followed that line in 1918 they would probably have remained one of the principal parties in Parliament.

  The EU is not loved even by many of those who voted for it and our support for it has been a millstone around our necks in every election. We had an excellent opportunity to get rid of that burden with the result of the referendum by saying it was the will of the people. Our continued support has done us no good and angered many people. There was always the chance to come back to it if leaving the EU proved to be a mistake when we could have said we were right all along. There is still time to play it down as there is almost no chance of our party getting its way. It is time for pragmatism. The continuance of the party is more important than temporarily leaving the EU and that should be our main objective.

• Dave Orbison 6th May '17 - 4:59pm

  Andrew McCaig I didn’t mean to imply that vilification of Corbyn was unique to the LibDems. The Tories, Media and certainly members of the Parliamentary Labour Party are equally to blame. It’s nasty, vicious and unnecessary. I would rather our politicians set a better standard of debate rather than resort to cheap cracks and personal insults. It’s sets a poor standard and just as we see on a football pitch, whatever the professionals do is sure to be copied elsewhere. No wonder the public’s contempt for politicians has grown over the years when this is how they conduct themselves.

  As for the LibDems doing some good whilst in the Coalition yes, but that could be said of any Government. Even the Tories have done one or two good things over the years – I think. But at the end of the day the voter makes an overall assessment. By the same token, I turned away from Blair’s Labour Party over Iraq and the increasingly authoritarian grip he took over the running of the Party. He wanted to and successfully gained sole control of the party. Of course, Blair did many good things too. But again, I have to take an overall view. By 2005 I thought ‘no thanks’ I prefer the LibDems and what they offered at that time. So, there are no double standards here on my part.

  Reading some of the rants against Corbyn and his style say compared to Blair, it really is laughable. Corbyn is accused of being some Trot and being undemocratic. Yet in his first Shadow Cabinet he brought in many who had differing views on policy to his own and rather than adopt a top-down approach, he has encouraged a bottoms-up input from members towards policy making. What a dictator this man is! Yet his willingness to consult rather than impose his own view and his willingness to be inclusive is seized upon by opponents who accuse him of being weak. Ultimately this is seen in the current Tory slogans as to May rather than Corbyn being a strong leader. Well we’ve been down that road before with Thatcher. I don’t see authoritarianism as strength I see it as a danger, a threat to democracy.

  Gutter politics only succeeds to obscure proper considered debate. That is why it is used by those devoid of a genuine manifesto of positive and fresh ideas. I make these points here as I do to others in the Labour Party elsewhere. Let’s debate policy but resist the invitation to join ‘the nasty party’.

• Peter Watson 6th May '17 - 5:20pm

  @Andrew McCaig “ok, but credit to the Lib Dems for the pupil premium”
  A “Pupil Premium” was in the Conservative manifesto in 2010 as well as Labour’s and the Lib Dems’.

• Katharine Pindar 6th May '17 - 8:20pm

  Our immediate job now is to try to show people that what Theresa May’s government stands for, has done, is doing and proposes to do, is bad for the country.

• Peter Watson 6th May '17 - 8:54pm

  @Katharine Pindar “Our immediate job now is to try to show people that what Theresa May’s government stands for, has done, is doing and proposes to do, is bad for the country.”
  For Lib Dems an important part of this job is to demonstrate that all of these things are very different from what the party associated itself with in coalition. This will not be easy; it may not even be true. Brexit aside, the country did not look significantly different after May 2015 and much of what is opposed now by individual Lib Dems began when their party was in government. Even the seeds of Brexit were sown on the Lib Dems watch.