European Elections 2019: Scotland and Northern Ireland declare, and the inquests begin…

19.39 And it’s really all over, with Naomi Long successfully elected…

It’s a truly historic day in Northern Irish politics, and congratulations to everyone in the Alliance Party for a quite astonishing advance.

Thanks to everyone who has commented here, and that brings our coverage of the European Parliamentary elections to a close…

18.44 STV can be quite dramatic sometimes, with candidates seemingly dead and buried, coming back to snatch victory. It hasn’t been like that here, as Naomi Long has gradually pulled away to make it certain victory. Here’s the result at the end of the fourth count…

What this means is that, with no surplus quota to transfer, the next step is to eliminate the SDLP candidate, and I’d not expect many of his votes to transfer to a hardline Unionist like Jim Allister from Traditional Unionist Voice.

15.13 Second count result from Northern Ireland, and it’s good news for the Alliance Party, with just under half of the transfers from the five eliminated candidates going to Naomi Long.

My gut feeling, looking at the voting splits for the remaining six candidates is that, with the Ulster Unionist to be eliminated next, it would require virtually all of their votes (54,736) to go to the Traditional Unionist Voice candidate, either directly, or via the Democratic Unionists, for Naomi to be denied. And given that some of them are likely to be needed by the DUP to reach the quota, that seems very unlikely.

I’m going to call this one for the Alliance Party, which means one more for ALDE.

13.37 Northern Ireland is different to rest of the United Kingdom, and they elect using STV, rather than D’Hondt. So, the count will take a bit longer, but the first reports are sensationally good news for the Alliance Party, with Naomi Long coming a very clear third…

The quota is just over 143,000, so nothing is absolutely certain yet, but with the bottom five candidates all eliminated, and the Green candidate’s transfers splitting overwhelmingly in favour of Naomi, it’s looking good.

12.28 Good afternoon, one and all, as we return to our coverage of the United Kingdom voting in the European Parliament elections. And it’s (admittedly expected) good news from Scotland, where Sheila Ritchie is confirmed as our sixteenth member of the Parliament.

It’s not going terribly well at Conservative Home, I’m afraid, where the shattered faithful have drawn the obvious (at least to them) conclusion that Brexit must be delivered harder and faster. Good luck with that in places like Wokingham, Windsor and Maidenhead and Tandridge.

It’s not time to gloat though, for we know only too well what it’s like to suffer gruesome defeat.

Labour List are a bit more reflective, and the argument about whether or not to support a People’s Vote rages on. One interesting suggestion is that their current stance is designed for a General Election scenario, but I am personally sceptical about the viability of that argument. For, whatever stance you take on Brexit, there is little doubt that people are taking sides, and not that keen on compromise. And where is the space in which some compromise might exist, anyway?

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This entry was posted in Europe / International and News.
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15 Comments

  • Richard Underhill 27th May '19 - 12:42pm

    Mary Honeyball is no longer an MEP.
    She has resigned from the Labour Party and been interviewed by BBC tv.

  • David Evans 27th May '19 - 1:40pm

    Now I simply hope and pray Naomi Long gets elected in Ulster to offer a beacon of hope again in that land.

  • This is the time, when people are listening again to the Liberal Democrat’s, to make the strong case for remaining in the EU. I was delighted that the party said that this was their policy, but we need a campaign which deals with the outrageous claims that have been made by those who want a Singapore model. I have in mind a clear, and short, explanation of the democratic institution which is the EU, An answer to nonsense about “bureaucrats” making decisions for the people of the U.K.
    I realise that there are few resources, but it is the future of our country that is at stake.
    The polarisation in our country is not one of opinions but one of facts.
    The debates in the House of Commons have been disgraceful by any standards. Why should we assume that people do not have the wit to show their displeasure?

  • Mary Honeyball didn’t stand as a candidate in the Euro elections and waited until after polling day to resign. She appears to be just the last in a line of senior Labour figures who can no longer stomach the “new” Labour party. Still we mustn’t be to hard on Jeremey, I’m sure he’s just being misunderstood, after all several posters love to push that narrative 😉

  • @frankie – Don’t you know that losing the EU elections this badly is all part of Corbyn’s Long Term Plan to have us remain in the EU?

  • Mick Taylor 27th May '19 - 2:51pm

    Oh Jeremy Corbyn!

  • Jonathan Linin 27th May '19 - 3:13pm

    Bit fed up with the on going “Brexit party success” narrative. The UKIP vote just transferred across and whilst the combined UKIP/Brexit was up (but nowhere near as much as the Lib Dem vote) it was on the back of a Tory collapse. Labour have been a complete shambles, but then I blame them for this whole saga; they vanished in 2016 when their support and campaigning for remain would have made the difference (I was highly amused to find out they even finished behind Change in my area).
    The fall out from this election will be interesting, and could lead to splits in Labour and Conservative. And while I would love to see the Conservative party disintegrate I do hope they pick somebody sane as leader (and remember, PM) rather than “Farage lite”, perhaps Rory Stewart.

  • John,
    You mean it isn’t part of his plan to become PM?
    I thought it was his rope a dope strategy

    Relating to or being a strategy in which one behaves passively or with little aggression until an opportune moment arises for successful action.

  • Nonconformistradical 27th May '19 - 4:00pm

    Re Naomi Long – the count progress can be seen at
    https://elections.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/ni-european-election-2019

    Quota is 143112 so no candidate has reached it yet. Below Naomi only the SDLP and TUV candidates are left in – all the others below them have been eliminated

  • The press love a quick story with strong headlines, hence their fascination with Farage. Now papers on the whole take their lead from their owners, but the TV press just tagalong. It is pointless trying to play nice with them, they are much more likely to play fair with you if you kick them; as Alister Campbell long ago proved.

  • Richard Underhill 27th May '19 - 6:42pm

    Alister Campbell’s vote is welcome, forecast and well explained.
    Michael Heseltine’s vote shows the broadness of our support.
    We must not allow the hard Brexiter’s to get away with claiming to be patriotic, whether they are Faragist or ERG, they are damaging the national interest.
    The BBC is also calling the third seat in Northern Ireland, although it is not yet official, for the Alliance Party’s Leader Naomi Long. First Preference votes +11.4%

  • Paul Barker 27th May '19 - 7:03pm

    If Naomi Long is elected that is a real earthquake for Northern Ireland, perhaps the 1st sign that Voters there are getting tired of the endless Unionist/Nationalist logjam. Some of the Alliance 2nd preferences must come from Unionists who want to stay in The EU.

  • Nonconformistradical 27th May '19 - 7:32pm

    Earthquake.

    Naomi Long is in

  • Jonathan Linin 27th May '19 - 10:19pm

    Just a little aside, forget the grinning pictures of Nigel (sans milkshake). The total right wing vote (Tory, Brexit, UKIP) was 44%, down from 51.4% in 2014 (Tory + UKIP), 50.4% in 2009 (Tory, UKIP, BNP), 48.5% in 2004 (Tory, UKIP, BNP).
    There is a story nobody is running with !

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