Lib Dem Voice has polled our members-only forum to discover what Lib Dem members think of various political issues, the Coalition, and the performance of key party figures. Over 530 party members have responded, and we’re currently publishing the full results.
38% of Lib Dem members would give Greens their second preference
LDV asked: Which party would be your SECOND preference if the system of Alternative Vote was introduced?
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10% – I would not use my SECOND preference
14% – Conservative
16% – Labour
38% – Green
1% – UKIP
0% – BNP%
3% – Northern Irish / Scottish / Welsh party
19% – Other (please specify)
Nine-in-10 Lib Dem members would use their second preference if given the option under AV, with 38% plumping for the Greens, well ahead of any other party. Second preference support for the Conservatives (14%) and Labour (16%) is roughly level, with no other party gaining any real support. Almost 1-in-5 selected ‘Other’, with respondents saying it would largely depend on the candidates themselves, and indeed what the political landscape will look like in 2015.
It’s interesting to compare these results with ConservativeHome’s equivalent for Tory members, which showed high second preference support for UKIP. The reality is that these second preferences — whether for the Greens or UKIP — would probably not be counted under AV, except in those constituencies where they also obtained sufficient first preferences to make it to the final two. Which, of course, is partly why the Alternative Vote does not produce proportional results. In which case third preferences would come into play (see below).
I wonder, too, how similar the second preferences of party members are compared to those of voters? My guess is that among the electorate at large, Lib Dem / Labour / Tory would pick up a larger proportion of second and third preferences than polls of members suggest.
LDV asked: Which party would be your THIRD preference if the system of Alternative Vote was introduced?
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28% – I would not use my THIRD preference
9% – Conservative
22% – Labour
16% – Green
2% – UKIP
0% – BNP
2% – Northern Irish / Scottish / Welsh party
20% – Other (please specify)
A higher proportin of Lib Dem members, 28%, would not use their third preference vote. However, it’s noticeable that among those who would Labour signifcantly outscores the Conservatives, 22% to 9%, and are ahead of the Greens. Again, a significant proportion said their third preference would depend on the candidates in their constituency.
Here is a selection of your comments:
Couldn’t possibly say. It would depend on the views of individual candidates and the policy offers of the parties at the general election. But I would always struggle to give any kind of preference to the Conservatives, and would never do so to UKIP or BNP.
Not sure. Loathe our conservative MP, and last year the Labour candidate put in a lot of work. But I’d probably lean Green.
My second sympathy is with the Greens but Labour are more likely to still be in the ballot. I would like Labour to be more apologetic for the mess they made of the economy though
I would choose based on the quality of the candidate and whether they were putting forward a costed plan. A moderate Conservative or a sensible Green would be my choice or perhaps a good Independent. Based on how I feel the Labour Party are behaving I would not be inclined to vote Labour at all.
Conservative or a sensible Green would be my choice or perhaps a good Independent. Based on how I feel the Labour Party are behaving I would not be inclined to vote Labour at all.
I would probably not use my 2nd vote but could conceivably use it tactically.
Labour or Conservative – which one would depend on individual candidate’s merits, party leader & manifesto.
I would almost certainly use my other preferences based on either tactical benefit, or on a good campaign/candidate – sometimes you really do want to acknowledge a strong independent or even a candidate for another party without giving them your vote.
I’m torn on this. My current Labour MP is a decent guy, and as a person I would give him my second vote – but I’ve become so thoroughly anti-Labour on economic grounds that I’m not sure I can stomach putting him above anyone other than the BNP.
This depends on the constituency, I have no objection to the Tory in my seat so I would likely put him as second preference
My second preference would be allocated to the candidate that most impressed me; too many voters vote along party lines rather than concerning themselves with the quality of the individuals on offer.
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14 Comments
No good timing if Lib Dems still want to convince wavering Labour supporters to back AV. I spoke to the person dropping a Labour leaflet off to my house last week. They were still unsure how they would vote on AV and gave mistrust of the Lib dems at national level as their reason. Funny enough, they felt that the Lib dems wanted Labour support now but would not repay it at future elections. They also thought that Lib dems would mainly vote Tory as second preference and at least that has been disproved.
The Tory (dropping off today) was happy to denounce AV and I have yet to have any Lib Dem literature through. I must say this is strange as I have always been of the opinion that the local council candidate not bothered to knock doors does not deserve a vote.
Personaly it probably reflects how I would have voted had AV been in place at the last election, Lib dem, Green, Labour.
I would strongly suggest that those sympathetic to the Greens read their Manifesto for a Sustainable Society. They are not some nice fluffy radical party but authoritarians who appear to want to govern all areas of our life. Their economic policies revolve around curtailing or reversing economic growth while increasing public spending on pretty much everything under the sun bar the military – a recipe for mass inflation. It is frankly no surprise that they once seriously considered an alliance with the far-left Respect party.
Basically, what Richard said – most people who like the Greens like them for their ideals, not their policies. The Greens are deficit-denying socialist authoritarians, and what they would put into practise seems even further from liberalism than anything we’d hear from Labour or the Tories.
@Richard and @Dave Page
Lot’s of truth in what you say, but…
Not one of the major parties are prepared to go far enough at this point on the environment and the trickle of Green success does keep the issue at the forefront of the political agenda. I would suggest that the most the Greens could hope to be was a very small part of a future coalition and that it would be their ideals more than their policies that would influence that Government.
And of course we are talking about peoples least worst options not their preferred choice….
What these results show is that LibDems support the environment and the climate change agenda. Chris Huhne is doing a great job at DECC with very little publicity. Its up to LibDems to show that in Government the green agenda can be implemented without the draconian policies put forward by the Greens.
Unfortunately we know where Nick Clegg gave his second preference. The LibDem leaflet I received today is totally silent on Clegg and Parlimentary LibDems in complete contrast to previous years – unfortunately I need more that silence on this matter if they are not to lose my vote.
Richard is right about the nature of the Greens. And despite their claims of being new and clean they are prepared to lie about their opponents just like the worst of mainstream politicians.
http://livingonwords.blogspot.com/2011/04/green-party-leader-caught-lying.html
If AV comes in the Lib dems can look forward to being fifth as by all accounts this is the parties fate in Scotland which has proportional representation. As a Labour voter, the green will always be my second preference now as I will never again be taken in by Lib Dem lies.
This may well be a hard week for the Lib Dems, they have been good at giving it, lets see if they can take it.
So much for Huhne and Cable’s ‘progressive majority’ then?
Fortunately only a handful of the thousands of Labour waverers read LDV as I’m sure this article would confirm all of their fears.
@AlexKN, look at it the other way, only 14% said Tory. The Greens on the other hand certainly are progressive – although some will no doubt argue about whether they can deliver. Nonetheless it is important to start with the right intention. So I do not recognise what your snide remark is aimed at.
Well, Geoffrey, as one of the Labour waverers AlexKN mentioned, let me put it like this:
What’s the point in supporting a slightly amended but still majoritarian electoral system, whose only marginal benefit is the possibility of broad anti-Tory tactical voting, if – as this poll suggests – the Lib Dems completely lack the gutteral fear which Labour voters have of Tory governments? The few people who actually believed that parliamentary arithmatic forced Clegg into this right-wing coalition would be disabused of the notion your party is progressive if they learned that, even given the opportunity to minimise the Tories’ representation, Liberals would not seize it.
Dave Pollard wrote: “…Its up to LibDems to show that in Government the green agenda can be implemented without the draconian policies put forward by the Greens.”
Sadly, the record isn’t very impressive so far. The coalition’s noises about planning reform seem to be based on the presumption that new development should automatically be approved, no matter what its impact on the local environment or local communities. And it is alarming that numerous environmental measures (including the Climate Change Act) are being considered for abolition, as part of the “deregulation” agenda.
I think I would vote Green as a second preference too – however it does depend on the individual too. As a Liberal the individual is a very important element in choice of voting in my opinion.
A decent hard working Labour politician who supported things like electoral reform, other progressive measures as well as oppose the authoritarian aspects and laws passed by the Blair/Brown coalition – might get my vote for number 2!
An independent like that fellow in Wyre Forest (?) or somewhere like that might get my vote.
That is the beauty of AV and even better STV. AV being the first step making people realise we need to go the whole hog. Choices means you do not have to slavishly stick to your narrow party limits albeit still upholding your beliefs – voting for people who, if not dot and comma identical with one’s philosophy, share fundamental core similarities and are decent human beings.
It doesn’t mean much if the Greens would pick up most LibDem second preferences since in most places the Greens would be eliminated before the LibDems so the LibDem transfers would never go to them. In the event of a LibDem melt-down, the Greens might benefit from the second preferences of the remaining LibDems, but they would have to be enough to put them ahead of Labour before they would win any seats through it.
The “No to AV” people are going on and on about how AV could mean the candidate who was third or fourth on a FPTP basis winning, but in reality this would only happen in exceptional circumstances, where the votes for the top three or four candidates were close together and there were sufficient votes for fifth and sixth etc placed candidates to transfer and push the third or fourth placed ones ahead of the second placed one. You could demonstrate a scenario where LibDem to Green transfers would result in an originally third placed Green candidate winning, but it would require a much greater proportion of the LibDem vote transferring to Green than suggested in the figures given here unless the Green was very close behind Labour.