Welsh Lib Dem Leader Jane Dodds will be the candidate in a by-election in the seat of Brecon and Radnosrhire after the recall petition for former Conservative MP Chris Davies received almost double the required number of signatures. The by-election date has not yet been announced but it may well be before the end of July.
Thousands of residents across Brecon and Radnorshire have taken the chance to demand better than a Westminster politics that fails to take their concerns seriously.
Now we have a golden opportunity to do things differently. The clear choice in this by-election is between the Conservatives, whose chaos and infighting is letting our communities down, and a better future for our area with the Welsh Lib Dems.
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46 Comments
Best of luck to Jane – please other anti-brexit forces drop out!
Good luck Jane. I presume the leadership hustings in Llandrindod Wells tomorrow will be followed by a mass leaflet delivery!
Shirley and I will be there this week-end to help the campaign get off to a great start.
Can history repeat itself? As I said on another thread earlier, the last time that Con defended Brecon and Radnor…May 9th 1985, it was a Lib Dem gain from Conservative majority 559, and Con came third…
I wonder whether the Tories would think of putting up the same candidate again? Is that legal? If so on both counts that surely would be the ultimate in arrogance. Was Brecon and Radnor a ‘leave’ area In 2016? If so, beware of the Brexit Party.
The Brecon seat by election will be a chance for the LibDems and the Brexits to slug it out. The LibDems held the seat from ’97-2015 and have 13 council seats on the County Council. The LibDems did the work getting the 19% ( 10% needed ) recall signatures together.
The Brexits won two Welsh seats in the Euros.
My money is on the LibDems taking it.
Ladbrokes:
LibDems 1/5
Brexits 6/1
Conservatives 8/1
Labour 50/1
Campaign HQ Address ??????
Excellent news.
Action Stations, everyone, this one is definitely winnable.
It will need a lot of hard work to regain this seat. A recent poll there indicates the incumbent would retain the seat with 30.9 % and the Brexit Party did well there in the European Election but I guess the success of the petition gives us hope.
Simon Shaw
Llandod HQ: Haslemere, Park Crescent, Llandrindod Wells, LD1 6AB,
01597 825158
Brecon HQ, 26 High Street, Brecon, LD3 7LE
[email protected]
Nvelope2003 I think you’ve misread that poll, it’s a 30.9% chance Con retains the seat… i.e. 69.1% chance they don’t.
For me the saddest moment of the 2017 election night was learning that Mark Williams had narrowly lost Ceredigeon, which meant that for the first time EVER the Liberals/LibDems had not a single Welsh MP. In the 19th century and the Lloyd George era, we dominated Wales, and even when we hit rock bottom in the 1940s and 50s it was Welsh seats that were the core of our tiny parliamentary party. We fell to a single Welsh seat in 1979-83, and then again in 2015-17. And then, wipe-out. 8:((
We ALL need to make sure the last 2 years were a blip and that we win this by election. I won’t be able to go in person but can someone tell me how to send a donation?
Jane, I wish you and your team all the best for the by-election.
I believe the ex-MP wishes to stand as the standard bearer of the Reactionary and none Unionist Party previously known as the Conservative party. Please, please let it happen.
Gary E : I am glad to hear it. Sorry if I caused any alarm. Since Boris looked like being the next Conservative leader their support has risen by 3% to 20% and the Brexit Party has dropped by 3% to 23%. Will this trend continue if he is elected leader by the party membership?
Jane sut ydach chi, Please ensure the party’s leaflets are in Welsh as well as English. I picked up a bit of Welsh when I lived there, not bad for a council tenant, Diolch yn fawr.
Good luck to you. I hope the Libs wins this one for reason and common sense. Pretty close here in the EU referendum (Leave 51.86% Remain 48.14%) but surely now it has gone to remain.
This has echoes of 1985 . My dear friend the late Doctor Geoffrey Tapper, took time off to get Richard Livsey elected . This is the type of seat which we will need to win in a pending General election. I have a feeling this will be one of those memorable by elections. My prediction is a Lib Dem win with a 2000 plus majority .
It was interesting listening to Vince on five live yesterday morning, he made hints of Tory defections to the Lib Dems during the late summer.
I wonder whether Justine Greening, might be one of the defectors . It would only take six defections , and The Tories are toast. We live in politically vulitile times!
Would think the outgoing MP is placing his party as a hostage to fortune by standing again. You can see the leaflets and statements already, the party of law and order, hard on crime etc etc! Surpised Conservative Central Office is seemingly going along with it.
Wonder what the Daily Mail will make of it!!!
Well, after the Con-Lib disaster, I swore I would break a lifetime’s habit and never vote Liberal/LD again. But times change and one hopes the Party has learned its lesson. (No more neo-liberal economics and far-right education policies, for goodness sake!)
So, I’m back to my roots and will pop over the border to help. Good to see another woman candidate, too.
This will be another nail in the Tory coffin with a Brexit body inside it. It’s eminently winnable and if the Farage Fantasists want to split the Tory vote still further, that sounds good to me!
Welsh TV is reporting tonight that both Johnson and Hunt have called Chris Davies to offer their support. They’re clearly more interested in the votes of the B&R Tory members than they are in the B&R constituents as a whole. Madness.
PS Does anyone know how you say ‘Bollocks to Brexit’ in Welsh??
Theakes: possibly not given their front page on BoJo tomorrow…
Charles Pragnell: who’s to say that if BoJo is the winner, that might be the catalyst for the defections. If he cannot command a majority in the HoC he cannot be PM…
@marcstevens – I would expect some of our campaign literature to be in Welsh, but this is the less Welsh-speaking part of Powys. When Plaid Cymru can only manage 3% you know that it’s not going to be hugely important.
A couple of comments, the Brexits did get 2/4 Welsh euroseats, but they did so with just 33% of the overall vote (thanks de hondt!) … more importantly, the Lib Dems missed out on a first ever seat by a few hundred votes, but over 75,000 people here voted Green/Change, neither of which had any chance of breaking through. If you are coming to Wales new, you would be surprised how very unpopular Welsh Labour is at the moment, in fact in the euro polls they came third but only 14,000 votes ahead of the WLDs (the Tories coming in fifth!). Neither Labour nor Plaid are very strong in B&R, although Labour has some bits around the south. The seat is absolutely right for LD v BP showdown.
Am not sure whether Brexit would take a mutation in Welsh, it’s a newish noun, but assuming it does, the translation required might be something like ‘bolycs i Frexit’ although there isn’t an ‘x’ in the Welsh alphabet. … anyone know? There are non-loan words for the rude bits, but that would lose all sense really, and you’d end up saying, literally, ‘testicles to brexit’.
Not sure I ever thought we’d see some of these words here!
@John Marriott
Yes it is legal for a recalled MP to stand for re-election and is specifically stated in the legislation.
Personally, if the Brexit Party stand it will make a LD victory more certain. It will split the Leave vote. Farage won’t pass up this opportunity. He may even stand himself if he believes he’ll be made redundant in October.
It may make the Tories think again about PR.
@Johnmc – in Welsh, taxi becomes ‘tacsi’, so presumably Brexit should become ‘Brecsit’. But perhaps it’s being treated as a proper noun and being left as is. Welsh keyboards don’t have the x key removed (nor k, q and v).
Johnmc = I like “testicles to Brexit”, it appeals to us more genteel & sophisticated types.
Or you could go for “Ablatisque testiculis est Brexit” for old Etonians like Johnson and Rees-Mogg (it’s all about engaging with people in their own language, isn’t it?).
Yeovil Yokel
“When the testicles have been removed, it is Brexit”? I’m not sure that means quite the same thing…
I have seen it suggested that a by-election could be delayed until October and might even be overtaken by a General Election. Is this possible?
Gary E makes a very valid point. Even if the UK gets Johnson as Tory Party Leader that won’t necessarily make him PM. If only a handful of Tory MPs defect he won’t have a majority in the HoC. To form a government he would probably have to ask for a vote of confidence and there’s no guarantee he would get it, even with DUP support.
We do live in interesting times!
“When the testicles have been removed, it is Brexit” pretty much sums up Brexit. Ironic really that the brave Brexiteers voted for Brexit in a desperate attempt to rediscover their machismo, have in effect voted to emasculate the country. Well no one said Brexit was anything other than rank stupidity, well no one with any sense 😉
Assortment of tweets at https://twitter.com/adrianmasters84
suggest Davies might stand and that there will be a brexit party candidate.
Mick Taylor: absolutely my point. I was very struck in announcing her decision to quit, Mrs May said she would remain PM until a successor could command the confidence of the HoC. Few appeared to note this at the time, but I think she was indicating she already knew that Boris might indeed win the internal party election but, critically, fail to win the hearts and minds of the HoC and therefore fail to become PM. If such a scenario pans out I think Jeremy Corbyn has 14 days to form a majority, which, in my view, he too will fail to do, thus triggering a General Election.
@Mick Taylor, GaryE
The crucial issue is whether the House of Commons goes into recess before the new Tory leader is named. My view is that Bercow would not allow it, as it is essential that the new PM, whether Johnson or Hunt, faces a vote of confidence in the House. If that succeeds, we also have to consider the possibility of a unity government, let’s say led by Ken Clarke, that would agree to do two acts:
1) Revoke Article 50 to remove the time pressure;
2) Organise a second referendum to get a definitive decision from the people.
Once this has been done and the second referendum outcome established, the unity government would call a new General Election.
I bow to your superior knowledge, Malcolm, I just talk a load of b*****ks.
The convention is that the Party holding the Seat calls the By-election, since the earliest possible date is July 25th, the Tories could reasonably say :”Ooh, holiday Season, no-one wants that” & delay till September/October. I am not sure if that would be bad for us, a By-election in The Autumn would get more publicity & not be so quickly forgotten.
A General Election is a real possibility even though none of The Parties really want one.
That’s a good point, Laurence.
However, Boris may well decide to go for an election immediately rather than face a vote of no confidence or the defection of several MPs to the LibDems. If the Tories get a majority, he has a mandate to take to Brussels. If Labour gets the hot seat, that will force Corbyn to come off the fence and make a decision around whether Labour will campaign to leave or remain. If Corbyn goes for leave, he faces the loss of several MPS and we are back to votes of no confidence and a parliament that cannot agree on a resolution.
A unity government may be the only alternative in such an impasse.
Tory MPs will not defect to the Lib Dems. They like arguing amongst themselves and they like it best while they are in government.
Glenn
They only need to vote against.
Three Tory MPs joined the Independent Group.
Usually if a by-election is delayed it helps Liberals, Sutton & Cheam and Brent East come to mind. I expect the Tories might try to call this quickly…..
@ Mick Taylor & GaryE
My initial thoughts were there wouldn’t be a vote of confidence after the Conservative leadership result is announced on Monday 22nd July. However, looking at the figures I am not sure The Conservatives now only have 312 MPs and the DUP have 10 making 322. This leaves a possible 319 who could vote against. It would then only take two Conservative MPs to vote against the government or 4 to abstain to trigger the Fixed-term Parliament Act.
However, Parliament breaks up for the summer on Thursday 25th July, so it would not be possible for a new government to win a vote of confidence between 26th July and 8th August. I think this would make Thursday 5th September the date for a general election.
Labour might want to wait until after 5th September when the House of Commons comes back from its summer holiday. But it breaks up again on most likely on Friday 13th September. We are back in the problem area of not having 14 days to form a new government while the House of Commons is sitting. It seems that the Leader of the House of Commons has total control over these dates.
I think it would be after 8th October before there would be a two-week period where the House of Commons is sitting in which to form a new government.
There are currently 15 “independent” MPs and 5 Change UK ones. I don’t think all of them would vote against the government in a vote of confidence. In the January 2019 vote of confidence Sylvia Eileen voted with the government and three ex-Labour MPs abstained (one of which has been replaced).
I think the only way the Conservatives could lose a vote of no confidence would be if there was already an alternative government ready to take its place which did not have Jeremy Corbyn as PM. A government with Dominic Grieve as PM is a possibility with the aim of putting May’s deal verse Remain to the people in a referendum. However I am not convinced there are at least 249 MPs who are either Labour or Conservative MPs who would support such a government. Without such support such a government could not be formed.
Excellent analysis from @michael BG which essentially agrees with what I was thinking.
Actually the Tories are down to 311 voting MPs (1 Tory deputy speaker who doesn’t vote) with the disqualification of Chris Davies in b&r,
My reading of the constitutional position is that a vote of confidence has to be won *within* 14 days, if a Tory pm had been defeated in a vote of no confidence and it was absolutely clear that a different MP could command the confidence of the house there would be immense pressure for them to be called.for immediately by the Queen to become pm and the new government would then control the business of the house.
But as you say it is a little difficult how labour get much beyond the 308 (inc. 2 tellers) they got last time including the nats, green and us if Corbyn was to be PM (or an election as the Indies wouldn’t want one)
They are up 1 as Frank field was too ill to vote but lost the 7 exc. Umunna who defected to change uk. They would need all the non Tories/dup inc. Sylvia Harmon, the former tories who defected to Change, Nick Boles and if we win b&r a minimum of 2 Tory voting for NC or 1 Tory voting for and 2 Tory abstentions or 4 Tory abstentions etc.
Michael1… there’s even an argument that.we are heading in the direction of a National Unity Government, I would have thought the only people that could lead such a thing would be Ken Clarke or much more likely Yvette Cooper. I suspect soundings are already being taken so that if the newly elected Con leader cannot command a majority Corbyn could be bypassed, preferable to watching Corbyn try and fail. My understanding is that HM on advice calls those most likely to command a majority, on the face of it that should be the Leader of HM’s Official Opposition, but in this instance he almost certainly couldn’t do so.
@garye
Yes and there are quite a few news stories today along those lines.
Obv. The maths are difficult. There is what position Corbyn holds in a national government and there’s how to govern both the day to day non legislative action of the executive and may be to a degree legislative action although I appreciate that could be put on hold.
I think also labour would want their softer Brexit to be in the mix whether you negotiate that with the EU, whether you put that to a referendum or not (and not is labour’s position officially AIUI) and whether if so before or after negotiating it and with what other options. The others involved Indies and parties also have differing views. And a referendum has yet to be supported in the Commons and only got around 280 votes last time if memory serves me right.
I think by and large the *threat* of voting down the new leader is that – a threat – as it causes problems for the Tories involved highly likely ending their parliamentary careers through deselection, defection, not winning re-election etc.
It’s the nuclear option and for both sides’ possibly mutually assured destruction but the threat is saying to the new leader crash out with no deal and you’re gone as pm. Still it is a workable and possible solution and I’d rate it as about 30% likelihood of happening.
—
As it happens I think you are reading too much into Mays comment that she stays until the new leader commands the confidence of the house. This is the formal constitutional position especially with a minority party and if although it’s unlikely the dup signalled they couldn’t back the new leader, she couldn’t recommend to the Queen to send for the new leader and would have to stay on until something was worked out etc.
I have just heard the interviewed on the Today programme in which you refused/failed to answer the question “do you live in the constituency?”. Those of us who actually do live in the constituency know that it is not in North Powys, and those who don’t will be left in no doubt that you do not and that you avoided giving an honest answer. This smacks of a candidate who has been groomed (badly) by the party machine and it will cost you valuable support. What on earth is wrong with being honest, especially when you hope to replace an MP who has been dishonest?
I am greatly encouraged that Plaid, the Green Party and Lib Dems are working together to change our political culture. Never has it been more obvious that breaking the monopoly of the two major parties is vital for sane governance.
Reading Jane Dodds’s comments in her recent flier regarding the danger Brexit imposes on the farming, I couldn’t help reflecting that the vast majority of farmers I know and have listened to, voted for it.