The Deputy Prime Minister’s problems could come to head later today – or maybe not. The report into the allegations that he bullied civil servants is due to be handed to the Prime Minister this morning. Sunak will then decide on his response which will be published at the same time as the report itself. That could happen later today, or it could be delayed a few days. I don’t think it can be kicked into the long grass.
According to The Guardian “Senior MoJ officials ‘could quit if Dominic Raab cleared of bullying’” – or, no doubt, if there is an attempted cover-up.
Of course, Dominic Raab’s position is of serious political significance, and not just in the Cabinet. His seat in Esher & Walton, which is next door to Ed Davey’s in Kingston & Surbiton, is a marginal Blue Wall seat. In 2019 he took 49% of the vote, with Lib Dem Monica Harding on 45% (with a 27% swing to us).
The constituency lies within Elmbridge District Council, which is currently controlled by a coalition of Lib Dems and local residents associations. When we look at the Council wards within Esher & Walton, only 11 seats out of 39 are currently held by Conservatives, with 10 held by Lib Dems and the remaining 20 by various residents groupings. Next month sees a third of those seats up for election and Lib Dems are campaigning hard to increase their representation.
Esher & Walton has several neighbouring Lib Dem areas – it is bounded by the parliamentary constituencies of Twickenham as well as Kingston & Surbiton, and Richmond Park is close by. Those three constituencies are spread across Richmond and Kingston Boroughs, and the two Councils between them have the largest majority of Lib Dem councillors in the country. Two other neighbouring Boroughs (Mole Valley and Woking) are Lib Dem controlled and to the south lies Guildford Borough, where again we share power with various residents groups.
So Esher & Walton is a perfect Blue Wall challenge for the Lib Dems. We will be watching the results on 4th May with great interest, whatever the outcome of today’s report.
* Mary Reid is a contributing editor on Lib Dem Voice. She was a councillor in Kingston upon Thames, where she is still very active with the local party, and is the Hon President of Kingston Lib Dems.
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18 Comments
Mary, I fear it can and will be kicked into the long grass, unless the report is so bland as to be meaningless. ‘Issues and implications that need careful consideration’ by the Prime Minister and others is one of many euphemisms that could be brought into play. I would put the odds on a clear “mea culpa,” a “nosta culpa” or even a “sua culpa” coming out just a fortnight before the local elections at a million to one.
David, I can’t imagine what makes you so cynical.
Michael, I really do try my very best to suppress it (canvassing, leafleting, organising etc etc ) … but there just are so many of those darned blue whatsits around. 🙂
David, You don’t have to depress it. I claim to be able (usually) to spot a Tory politician just by looking at him/her.
The latest news is that a decision will not be made today. No doubt Sunak & Co are not considering whether or not Raab deserves to be fired, but what the effect will be on the Conservatives’ electoral prospects.
Anyway, good luck with your campaigning. I hope you get the result you are looking for.
It really doesn’t matter whether he ‘has the full confidence of the Prime Minister’. The electors of Esher and Walton will form their own ideas of his character. For what it’s worth, I think the postponement might be to give Raab a chance to read the report and resign without Sunak having to be seen sacking a loyal supporter.
Forgive me for being cynical, but I suspect that Sunak, like Raab and many other men, doesn’t see what the problem is. Surely men are supposed to be men? It’s just another hangover from the past when men were truly able to do whatever they wanted, short of murder, and largely get away with it.
I doubt Raab will resign or that Sunak will sack him. It will be up to Raab’s constituents to see him off.
@David Evans: “Culpa eius”, surely. Suus / Sua / Suum is only used when the possessor is also the subject of the sentence. (Sometimes I wish English had this reflexive possessive, as it would allow much more clarity in certain circumstances.)
It seems that the grass wasn’t so long as David Evans feared.
Eerily prescient, Peter Davies!
Hm, no sooner had I said Raab wouldn’t resign, he did. Of course, there was no admission that he could possibly be wrong and he’d been set up. Of course, bullies never admit bullying. It’s just being firm or making themselves clear or some other euphemism.
It all shows how much further we gave to go to have a Liberal society!
One must wonder how those civil servants would of faired when I was doing my apprenticeship in the 70s …
How times change. Outside of the Westminster bubble & Twitterati – this stuff just tends to fade away pretty rapidly ….
@Martin Gray: It’s “would have“. And actually the conduct of a public official (especially an elected one) is precisely the sort of thing that is of concern to voters, especially those people the official purports to represent.
@Alex….The conduct of a public official – to the average voter in the street it will be meaningless come election day. & quite a few voters would look at that complaint eg calling someone’s work woeful – as a bit weak …
Not sure how those civil servants would of survived the workplace on the 70’s ….
@MartinGrey. You seem to one extolling the virtues of the 1970s workplace, one where one of my teaching colleagues was ‘dating’ a girl in the 6th form and nothing was done about it, one where corporal punishment was still dished out in schools and children’s homes and where women were openly paid less than men for doing the same work. (Oh and expected to pout up with sexual harassment)
Definitely not ‘oh happy days’
@Martin Gray: You’re wrong. It’ll matter, the same as Tory sleaze contributed to the crushing Tory defeat of 1997. And if you’re saying workplace culture has changed since the 1970s, then I for one think it’s a good hting that behaviour by senior people that may have been tolerated then is not tolerated now.
“ I for one think it’s a good thing that behaviour by senior people that may have been tolerated then is not tolerated now”
Well said.
There is no good reason why senior people should get away with treating colleagues/subordinates like garbage. Treating them with respect and courtesy might even get a much more effective job done.
@Alex….it really doesn’t & certainly won’t …
Outside the blog’s , twitterati , & Westminster bubble, people go about their lives hardly giving a fig about this stuff. Come the GE voters concentrate on what really matters in their lives – not Tory ministers bawling out civil servants – that’s tomorrow’s chip paper as they say..
@Martin Gray: You’re wrong. Voters don’t have to remember specific incidents or details. They just have to notice the stench of sleaze surrounding the Tories, caused by the cumulative effect of all of them. It’s the twitterati and Westminster bubble who tend to think that these things don’t matter. Voters do care.