The Deputy Prime Minister’s problems could come to head later today – or maybe not. The report into the allegations that he bullied civil servants is due to be handed to the Prime Minister this morning. Sunak will then decide on his response which will be published at the same time as the report itself. That could happen later today, or it could be delayed a few days. I don’t think it can be kicked into the long grass.
According to The Guardian “Senior MoJ officials ‘could quit if Dominic Raab cleared of bullying’” – or, no doubt, if there is an attempted cover-up.
Of course, Dominic Raab’s position is of serious political significance, and not just in the Cabinet. His seat in Esher & Walton, which is next door to Ed Davey’s in Kingston & Surbiton, is a marginal Blue Wall seat. In 2019 he took 49% of the vote, with Lib Dem Monica Harding on 45% (with a 27% swing to us).
The constituency lies within Elmbridge District Council, which is currently controlled by a coalition of Lib Dems and local residents associations. When we look at the Council wards within Esher & Walton, only 11 seats out of 39 are currently held by Conservatives, with 10 held by Lib Dems and the remaining 20 by various residents groupings. Next month sees a third of those seats up for election and Lib Dems are campaigning hard to increase their representation.
Esher & Walton has several neighbouring Lib Dem areas – it is bounded by the parliamentary constituencies of Twickenham as well as Kingston & Surbiton, and Richmond Park is close by. Those three constituencies are spread across Richmond and Kingston Boroughs, and the two Councils between them have the largest majority of Lib Dem councillors in the country. Two other neighbouring Boroughs (Mole Valley and Woking) are Lib Dem controlled and to the south lies Guildford Borough, where again we share power with various residents groups.
So Esher & Walton is a perfect Blue Wall challenge for the Lib Dems. We will be watching the results on 4th May with great interest, whatever the outcome of today’s report.