Congratulations to Julia Goldsworthy, selected last Friday to fight what is, on paper at any rate, the Lib Dems’ top target in the 2015 general election: Camborne and Redruth. This was the seat which Julia, who had been the party’s shadow chief secretary to the treasury, lost by just 66 votes to the Tories in 2010. Julia, who became special adviser to Danny Alexander at the Treasury shortly after her defeat, has resigned her post to focus on the campaign.
Camborne and Redruth was one of the eight Conservative-held marginal seats where the Lib Dems came second which the Tory peer Lord Ashcroft polled last year to test voting intentions. The result? Overall, across the eight seats, the Lib Dems were just 3% behind the Conservatives, 32% to 29%, with Labour third on 18%. The reason? Not hard to guess: Ukip, which was polling 12%.
Given the Lib Dem vote tends to rise during the campaign where the party focuses resources, squeezes the third party and our vote firms up, this poll suggested there is the very real potential for Lib Dem gains from the Conservatives in 2015. Julia clearly thinks so. Here’s what she had to say after being selected:
“I am proud and excited to have been chosen as the Liberal Democrat candidate for my home seat of Camborne and Redruth. For the first time in generations, Liberal Democrats will be campaigning on our record in government.
“It is a record to be proud of: 17,710 workers in Cornwall taken out of tax altogether with many more local low and middle income workers benefiting from tax cuts that will hit the £700 mark from this April. A record number of apprenticeships created, a halt to Post Office closures, and a long overdue discount in water bills – to the tune of £50 per year that the others talked about but Liberal Democrats have delivered. Last but not least our pupil premium policy has delivered £2.6m to local schools in the constituency benefiting nearly 3,000 children. These are commitments in our manifesto that are now benefiting many thousands of people all across Cornwall. It is truly a record to be proud of.
“Over the coming weeks I will be knocking on doors in every town and village in the constituency to talk to local people about that record and to discuss your views and concerns.”
* Stephen was Editor (and Co-Editor) of Liberal Democrat Voice from 2007 to 2015, and writes at The Collected Stephen Tall.
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6 Comments
Stephen, you keep repeating the mantra that the polls showed the Lib Dems just 3% behind, you know there were two questions – the standard voting intention question which showed support at Cons 33 Lab 24 Lib Dems 18 UKIP 14 others 12. It was only with the squeeze message given that the gap narrowed. Time will tell which is likely to be more accurate, but it is very unlikely there will be an additonal squeeze on top of that already identified. If anything the opposite is more likely, especially in a seat like Camborne and Redruth with a Labour tradition.
@ Caracatus – no, that’s not true.
The question asked that produced the Con 32%, Lib Dem 29% result was: “Thinking specifically about your own constituency and the candidates who are likely to stand there, which party’s candidate do you think you will vote for in your own constituency at the next general election?” No squeeze message was given. All parties were given as options.
You can check it out for yourself here: http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/Con-held-Lib-Dem-targets-Full-tables.pdf
Great to see Julia re-selected, she deserves support from across the country. I would urge Lib Dem activists to go and knock on doors in Falmouth and Cambourne; it is a beautiful area! Combine your visit with a few lunches by the sea at the Gylly Cafe or just a pasty on the beach, who could resist!
Great MP if she succeeds
@Lucy
The constituency boundaries changed in 2010, it’s not Falmouth & Camborne any more, it’s Camborne/Redruth. So I’m afraid the Gylly Beach Cafe is out, but the Blue Bar is in!
“no, that’s not true.
The question asked that produced the Con 32%, Lib Dem 29% result was: “Thinking specifically about your own constituency and the candidates who are likely to stand there, which party’s candidate do you think you will vote for in your own constituency at the next general election?” No squeeze message was given.”
Obviously that’s what Caracatus was referring to a squeeze question, because thinking about the specific constituency tended to squeeze Labour support.
Of course you shouldn’t quote those results as the “voting intentions”, because the straight voting intention question placed Labour second in those Lib Dem “targets”!