LDV election prediction competition: what will happen on 4th June?

Just two days left ‘til polling day in what for many will be a double-election, with local elections taking place in much of England, and European elections being held across the UK. So what better time than now to launch our election prediction competition?

First let’s remind ourselves of the current state of play.

Local elections: Anders Hanson here on LDV has given a very useful synopsis of what to look out for, and which councils/mayors are up for re-election this Thursday. The last time local elections were held in most of these areas was on the same days the 2005 general election – which inevitably skewed results. The projected national share of the vote in local elections, though, was as follows:

Labour 25%, Conservative 40%, Lib Dems 28%

We should expect, therefore, Labour to poll under 25% and the Tories considerably more than 40% given the national opinion polls currently.

The Lib Dem figure is harder to nail down, but clearly we want (i) to beat Labour, and (ii) not to lose too much ground to the Tories, certainly not in key battleground areas.

In terms of councils, the Lib Dems control two – Devon and Cornwall county councils – with minority control of two – Somerset county and Bristol city councils. We will be defending 457 seats, compared to 1,149 for the Tories and 475 for Labour.

European elections: last time, in 2004, the Lib Dems trailed in fourth behind Ukip:

Labour 23%, Conservative 27%, Lib Dems 15%, Ukip 16%, Greens 6%, BNP 5%, Respect 2%, Nationalists 2%, Others 5%

Clearly the aim this time is to beat Labour and Ukip and retain the same number of MEPs (given the overall number is reducing to reflect EU expansion). The worst scenario would see the party trailing in fourth place again, perhaps being chased hard by the Greens. But in the current electoral tumult, with erratic polling data, it’s anyone’s guess how exactly this cake will be sliced. Are you feeling glass half-empty or glass half-full?

Anyway here are the competition questions:

1. Predict the Liberal Democrat share of the vote in the European elections.
2. Predict the turnout in the European elections.
3. Predict the Liberal Democrat lead over Labour in the local elections (if you think the results will be LD 25%, Lab 22%, your answer is +3%. If you think it will be the other way around, your answer is -3%).
4. Predict how many local authorities the Liberal Democrats will have majority control of on 5th June.
5. Predict the net loss/gain of Lib Dem councillors.

Feel free to show your working in the comments thread, but please do mark your answers clearly as per my preciction/example in the first comment.

And your prize? Well, the lucky winner will receive a copy of LDV’s annual, The Tangerine Book – still available for purchase here – and the runner-up will receive a limited edition (in fact it’s our last one) LDV mug. Oh, and of course you’ll earn the esteem of the LDV community.

So what’s stopping you? Predict away…

Read more by or more about , or .
This entry was posted in News.


  • 1) 15%
    2) 33%
    3) +2%
    4) 1
    5) -25

  • 1. 18
    2. 34
    3. +5%
    4. 1
    5. 15

  • 1. 13.5
    2. 25%
    3. +1.5%
    4. 0
    5. -25

  • Joshua Dixon 2nd Jun '09 - 4:25pm

    1. 14%
    2. 41%
    3. +2%
    4. 1
    5. +7

  • 1 17%
    2 29%
    3 +2%
    4 1
    5. -29

  • Martin Land 2nd Jun '09 - 6:01pm

    It’s far too volatile to make any sensible predictions!

  • 1. 18.5% (enough to get Jonathan Fryer elected in London!)
    2. 37%
    3. 2.5%
    Can’t answer the last two!

  • Harry Hayfield 3rd Jun '09 - 3:25pm

    1. 14.82%
    2. 40%
    3. +6%
    4. 0
    5. +50

  • Because there are new unitary authorities being elected in Wiltshire and Cornwall I assume that these counties should be excluded from the gain/loss calculations. There are also a lot of by-elections tomorrow.

  • 1. 16%.
    2. 42%.
    3. +5%.
    4. 2.
    5. +10.

  • This is a mug’s game…but here

    1. 15.5%
    2. 37%
    3. +7%
    4. 1
    5. -7

  • 1. 17.4%
    2. 29.8%
    3. 7.1%
    4. 0
    5. +28

  • Stuart Ritchie 4th Jun '09 - 5:27pm

    1. 14.9
    2. 28%
    3. +5.3%
    4. 1
    5. +12

  • 1. 13%
    2. 36%
    3. +2%
    4. 0
    5. -40

  • Simon Courtenage 5th Jun '09 - 7:29am

    1. 25%
    2. 45%
    3. 10%
    4. 1
    5. +15

Post a Comment

Lib Dem Voice welcomes comments from everyone but we ask you to be polite, to be on topic and to be who you say you are. You can read our comments policy in full here. Please respect it and all readers of the site.

If you are a member of the party, you can have the Lib Dem Logo appear next to your comments to show this. You must be registered for our forum and can then login on this public site with the same username and password.

To have your photo next to your comment please signup your email address with Gravatar.

Your email is never published. Required fields are marked *

Please complete the name of this site, Liberal Democrat ...?


Recent Comments

  • User AvatarJoseph Bourke 21st Aug - 7:54pm
    Innocent Bystander, Rupinder in his article is focusing on the macroeconomic impact of a no-deal Brexit. As Keynes once noted "The theory of economics does...
  • User AvatarDavid Raw 21st Aug - 7:50pm
    @ Paul Barker Could you spell out for u,s Paul, your knowledge and experience of Scottish politics, and could you also tell us which particular...
  • User AvatarMartin 21st Aug - 7:19pm
    " I believe that their aim was a pact with the Tories from the time he assumed the leadership. " Your private belief is your...
  • User AvatarRichard Fox 21st Aug - 7:15pm
    This is becoming a real hot topic in the states. I think some of us should put this to conference.
  • User AvatarGeoffrey Dron 21st Aug - 6:45pm
    @MichaelBG/TCO Apropos defence, whether or not increased defence-related expenditure = LD policy, I do believe in an increase, initially to 2.5%. I do not however...
  • User AvatarRob Cannon 21st Aug - 6:35pm
    I completely agree with this perceptive piece by David Warren. Far too many people at senior levels of the LibDems are establishment creatures. Clegg was...
Sat 24th Aug 2019
Thu 29th Aug 2019
Mon 9th Sep 2019