A fortnight ago, LDV posed the question, What difference, if any, do you think the televised leaders’ debates will make to the Lib Dems’ standing in the polls? Here’s what you told us:
- 60% (258 votes) – They will be a real help to the Liberal Democrats
- 24% (105) – They will make only a marginal difference either way
- 8% (34) – They will backfire for the Liberal Democrats
- 8% (33) – They will be utterly irrelevant to how people vote
Total Votes: 430 Poll ran: 26th December 2009 – 8th January 2010
So, a convincing majority of you – six in 10 – think the debates will be a big plus for the Lib Dems, with only eight per cent believing they will backfire. One-third of you think they will, at most, make a marginal difference, or else will be utterly irrelevant.
This seems right to me – with two big caveats. First, there is always the chance that Nick will be the one who makes a gaffe (“It’s Lib Dem policy to kill all the first-born” – you know, the kind of thing any of us might inadvertently utter under the pressure of hot studio lights and live TV) which is pounced upon by our opponents and the media.
Perhaps an even bigger issue for Nick is winning the expectations battle. The media and readers of this site will be expecting the Lib Dems to get a boost merely as a result of Nick’s presence in the debates. If, for whatever reason, the instant polls suggest no increase in Lib Dem support, then there is the risk that Nick will have been seen to have failed – even if he performs perfectly well.
But we know these risks – and the rewards of success are likely to be far greater than the costs of failure.
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2 Comments
I was Interested to see your caveat about the danger of being ‘the one who makes the gaffe’, because this is precisely why broadcast interviews and Q-A sessions seldom result in anything other than negative news about the interviewee, which is why I don’t understand why they all seem to prefer doing them to making speeches at live rallies – for more on which, see my recent post on the ‘Snakes and Ladders Theory of Political Communication’ at http://bit.ly/60QD1h, which also explains why I’m not as excited by the prospect of TV ‘debates’ between the leaders as most other commentators seem to be.
As far as I can see, the main positive advantage for Mr Clegg will be that it should increase his recognition factor above the dismally low rate of 25% that was reported a few months ago (http://bit.ly/76kQ3K) – unless, of course, Brown or Cameron steals the show by being ‘the one who makes the gaffe’.
I think there will be a benefit for us by these debates taking place, but by an indirect route.
These debates will lead to greater awareness of the election, which will lead to a higher turnout, which will increase our vote (the Lib Dems having a smaller ‘core’ vote than the other two parties).