At this time of crisis, the Lib Dems must seize back the `Reform UK’ initiative from Nigel Farage and his ramshackle party. Freedom is at stake.

Voting intentions (polling data from 10 March) are 15% for the Lib Dems and 23% for Reform UK (from 11% and 25% last December). Here’s how to build on this poll hike.

Farage’s stated belief in electoral reform contains an inherent contradiction: while he ostensibly champions PR, his dream of being PM in 2029 hinges on First Past The Post being maintained.      

To be recognised as the real party of reform, the Lib Dems must recapture the initiative. First, use PR as a protest vehicle for appealing to voters disenchanted with a system which gave 2/3 of seats to a party with only 1/3 of the votes. 

Secondly, keep flagging up Farage’s championing of Putin during the 2024 GE campaign, when, pointing to NATO’s and the EU’s eastward expansion, he claimed that ‘we provoked this war’. Already in 2014, in an interview with GQ magazine, Farage had named Putin as the world leader he most admired. And let’s not forget his many appearances on Russia Today, at least three of them after Putin invaded Crimea in 2014.

But more recently, Farage has been presenting himself as the voice of moderation within his party. We must highlight Farage’s volatility, contrasted with our consistent liberalism.

Ed Davey, who is stalwartly supporting Ukraine, has proposed large increases in our defence spending as a percentage of GDP and, over the past few weeks, has used many of his PMQs to back Ukraine, is best placed to challenge Reform UK over UK military reform. Farage’s well publicised association with Trump makes it hard for him to follow suit. Polling data shows how deeply split Reform voters are over whether their party would do better with or without Farage.

World War III, using modern means of warfare to undermine Western freedom and democracy, has already begun. (See Economist `Want to stop a third world war?’, 30.5.24). Warfare today is hybrid: insidious, dangerous, but not always obvious. It includes ‘grey zone’ warfare: ‘salami-slicing’ (as Putin did to Crimea in 2014, severing it from Ukraine while causing little Western reaction), cyber warfare, sabotaging crucial infrastructure, etc. 

Ideologically, the strategy involves harnessing populism to build up far-right parties across Europe, including in the UK. How can we jolt the country as a whole into recognising that we, on the other hand, stand for freedom and democracy?  

While supporting Ukraine, many Britons fail to recognise the broader strategic threat posed by Russia, which demands public acceptance of the ancient Roman axiom that to preserve peace we must be prepared for war.  Confronting this is a key challenge. Another is convincing the younger generation, on whom the burden of defence will fall, that freedom is a right that has to be defended against forces determined to destroy the very sinews of Western democracy.

This is where far-right parties, growing in power across Europe, fit into Putin’s plan. Russian tanks won’t roll up Whitehall or the Champs Elysées. Instead, like ‘Trojan Horses’, elected far-right governments will hand over their countries to him.

Farage, more chameleon than real moderate, could offer Putin a way in should he become PM in 2029. 

Churchill made sure in WW2 that the Union Jack was widely associated with British patriotism in the fight against Fascism. After the war, he focused on the threat posed by Soviet Russia. Farage loves to flaunt the Union Jack, but for him it’s a false flag. 

Despite cultivating his new moderate image here, Farage denigrates our country abroad. At the CPAC 2025 right-wing jamboree in Washington in February, he blithely claimed that the UK is a place where “you can’t say a thing or you might get put in prison” and where “everyone’s miserable”.

Ed Davey – angry but controlled – grows daily in stature and gravitas in voters’ minds, as polls show. His ‘stunts’, combined with targeting the most winnable seats, during the GE campaign, gave us 72 MPs, including 9 who served in the military and others who have contributed to national security as police or in the civil service. All are people of substance and courage and they must be part of a drive to toughen our image. 

Our Party is rightly perceived as the party of `care’. We should broaden this concept to include care about Britain being able to defend itself at all times, care about preventing war, care about standing up to international bullying (from allies and enemies alike) and care about our servicemen and women.

Many centre-left Lib Dems, but also a great many Blue Wall ‘orange Tories’, applaud our Party’s steadfast resistance to Putin – and Trump, as our recent poll surge reflects.

In Richmond Borough alone (where I’m a Councillor) many patriotic ‘blue Lib Dems’ are keen to reward us electorally for giving a strong lead on Ukraine and on boosting national defence and security.

Help us to be true UK reformers by joining Liberal Democrat Friends of Ukraine (by emailing [email protected]) and/or Liberal Democrat Friends of the Armed Forces (by emailing [email protected]).

* Tony Paterson, who co-founded Liberal Democrat Friends of Ukraine (which has 370 members) in 2023, is its Military Policy Lead and a member of Liberal Democrat Friends of the Armed Forces. Having stood as Liberal Parliamentary Candidate against Mrs Thatcher in Finchley in 1979, after being a Special Constable. Tony is currently a Richmond Borough Councillor. He describes himself as ‘an ardent Churchillian and Zelenskyyan’.