This week’s pair of London by-elections has brought yet more good news for the party, with a gain from Labour in Vassall ward in Lambeth on a huge 11.7% swing. One person likely to be celebrating in particular is the party’s Chief Executive, Chris Rennard, who now lives in a ward with a Liberal Democrat councillor:
Liberal Democrat 1,209 (50.4%, +14.9)
Labour 859 (35.8%, -8.4)
Conservative 206 (8.6%, – 2.8)
Green 109 (4.5%)
Other 15 (0.6%)
Many congratulations to Steve Bradley and the team.
Meanwhile in Havering, the BNP have retained their seat in Gooshays ward. This is split 1 BNP / 2 Conservative, so the third-place Conservative finish in the by-election is particularly poor. The complex mix of voting patterns means you need the full figures to see what has been going on:
2006 result:
BNP 996
Conservative 952 /916 / 885
Labour 915 / 912 / 814
UKIP 379 / 321
Residents 199 / 162 / 157
Independent 88 / 84 / 78
2008 result:
BNP 865 (38.0%, +1.8)
Labour 741 (32.5%, +6.6)
Conservative 489 (21.5%, -5.5)
UKIP 70 (3.1%, -7.6)
NLP 62 (2.7%)
Liberal Democrat 52 (2.3%)
Also of note is that this is another pair of poor by-election results in London for the Conservatives, making it now seven out of eight by-elections in which their vote share has dropped. The one exception only saw a 2% increase.
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9 Comments
The horror of Goosehays is it is a large peripheral white working class council estatet that was a safe Lab ward until 2006. It looks as though if the BNP had stood 3 candidates at that election they would hav e won all 3. It is are to see the BNP hold by-elections – they usually get rumbled ….
For those of you pondering the Vassall result the bit that stood out for me is this.
Labour vote 2006: 1421
Labour vote 2008: 859
Lib Dem vote 2006:1092
Lib Dem vote 2008:1209
ie Labour have lost almost half their vote in two years.
This swing would be enough for the LDs to gain Clapham Common, Stockwell, Knights Hill, Princes, Streatham South, Thornton wards – giving the Lib Dems an outright majority on Lambeth, the GLA seat and (I think) all three Parliamentary seats.
I’m delighted by this result, not least because like Chris Rennard I live in the ward!
Vassall hasn’t had a LD councillor for 10 years, since the surprise 1994 victors narrowly lost their seats. It’s great to have one now!
I’m particularly pleased for Steve Bradley who narrowly lost the seat in 2006 after a vicious Labour smear campaign against one of his fellow LD candidates.
Steve never gave up and has worked the
ward for the last 2 years he truly deserved this victory. Well done to him. I also know that Caroline Pidgeon the local PPC worked her socks of in this vote and I hope it pays dividends for her too!
Another notable aspects of this vote is the fall in the Tory vote – there are many very wealthy enclaves in the area. In 2006 across North Lambeth the 3rd place Tory vote went up contributing to string of LD losses. This time despite the Mayoral election and an active campaign by the local Tory candidate we sucessfully squeezed them & their vote actually fell.
This result bodes well for the next those 2010 borough elections. Even on a cautious scenario where we win the other 2 Vassall seats, 2 more in else where in the Borough and the Greens take the other 2 in the Brixton ward where they got a Councillor last time then Labour would lose their majority.
All in all a very good night!
Recent local election results in London are welcome, but I suspect we will under perform in the election for London Mayor. Labour and Greens recommending second preference votes for each other will not help us.
Thanks to everybody that helped us secure these successes.
After a succession of excellent by-election results across London for the Liberal Democrats, this proves that where we fight – we win: where we win, it demonstrates the passion to work even harder.
I think people should look at the Green Labour pact and think about the environmental and ethical credentials of Labour. Is this really what Green voters want to be associaited with?
Excellent news.
This result once again suggests that the Lib Dems have an ability to mobilise support on the ground in a way that belies opinion poll ratings.
It must be looking very promising for Caroline Pidgeon to take the GLA seat now.
If the BNP hold a seat with an increased share of the vote it is UNBELIEVABLY short-sighted to see anything positive.
I add my voice to that of Simon at 12:32. I think the Green Party is more a vehicle for the far left than a genuine environmentalist party. Half of them couldn’t care less about conservation, they just want the usual nonsense that abounds in your average students’ union. Leavingsoon is just trying to undermine Paddick, since he’s so reviled for his authoritarianism that he can’t even beat BoJo by his own merits.