It is no secret that Liberal Democrats have become one of the first and foremost Parties in Local Government, having consistently made gains for the last seven years of Local Elections and this strategy was successful in giving us 72 MPs in 2024. But one place where we have suffered a great absence of success has been in Parliamentary by-elections, where we haven’t made a gain since 2023. This is obviously bad for a few reasons, by-elections often indicate loudly and clearly to the public who has momentum, and seeing a major victory can translate into added strength, for example, before Gorton & Denton, YouGov (who predicted the 2024 General Election roughly correct) had the Greens polling at 17%, after Hannah Spencer won, they were up to 21%. It is not as if this secret of success is somehow foreign to us either, in the early 1980s we adeptly used by-elections to challenge the Party system when Bill Pitt, Shirley Williams and Roy Jenkins won startling victories in areas (like Gorton & Denton) that would’ve been considered safe seats, driving up polling for the Alliance to a leading position by early 1982.

Of course, what has become the classic response line among Liberal Democrats to this reality is that, “under our present electoral system Seats matter more than polls.” While this is true to an extent, it is often forgotten that the polls directly affect our ability to expand; for example in 2010 when we won 23% of the vote, we came second place in 243 Seats, whereas in 2024, when we won only 12% of the vote we came second in only 27. Given we are now polling as low as 8%you may judge for yourself how that will affect us.

In this context Starmer’s resignation as an MP, in what has been dubbed his “Last U-Turn” after promising to stay on until the next General Election has presented Liberal Democrats with a golden opportunity, it is unlikely that Reform or the Conservatives will do well here and given it is the Seat of a former Prime Minister it is all the more notable of a by-election. The challenge of course being that it is a Labour safe seat, and the fact Zack Polanski is running. We should make no bones about the fact Polanski’s leadership as leader of the Green Party is a threat to our position as the progressive alternative to Labour, in the last set of locals the Greens made gains in areas that once would’ve been strong for us such as in Manchester, even if we don’t win, denying him a victory will benefit us, as it will halt his already slowing momentum and any Labour candidate will have to weather the struggle of incumbency anyway.

It is in this respect that our success in becoming a Party of local Government may aid us, we need to make it clear to voters that we are not simply a tactical choice, but the practical choice. There is much a point to be made about our success with the four-day work week, which Labour opposed, or our success in pushing for expanded housebuilding programmes, which the Greens opposed – and both of these are in Cambridgeshire alone. Additionally there is a narrative we can form about those disillusioned with failed Prime Ministers seeing a brighter future in us given we already hold Theresa May’s former Seat. The opportunity is here, we just need to grab it

If you’re near the area and/or have some spare time I would highly recommend getting in contact with the Camden Liberal Democrats and asking what you can do to help out. If we want to win over 100 Seats at the next General Election, or even break Asquith’s record, we need to make it clear to Britain that Liberals have not just the policy, but the momentum to be in power next time.

* Rosemary Runswick is a Liberal Democrat activist in West Suffolk and a member of the Radical Association. She writes a blog at the Green Ribbon Club (https://greenribbonclub.blogspot.com/p/about.html).