It is no secret that Liberal Democrats have become one of the first and foremost Parties in Local Government, having consistently made gains for the last seven years of Local Elections and this strategy was successful in giving us 72 MPs in 2024. But one place where we have suffered a great absence of success has been in Parliamentary by-elections, where we haven’t made a gain since 2023. This is obviously bad for a few reasons, by-elections often indicate loudly and clearly to the public who has momentum, and seeing a major victory can translate into added strength, for example, before Gorton & Denton, YouGov (who predicted the 2024 General Election roughly correct) had the Greens polling at 17%, after Hannah Spencer won, they were up to 21%. It is not as if this secret of success is somehow foreign to us either, in the early 1980s we adeptly used by-elections to challenge the Party system when Bill Pitt, Shirley Williams and Roy Jenkins won startling victories in areas (like Gorton & Denton) that would’ve been considered safe seats, driving up polling for the Alliance to a leading position by early 1982.
Of course, what has become the classic response line among Liberal Democrats to this reality is that, “under our present electoral system Seats matter more than polls.” While this is true to an extent, it is often forgotten that the polls directly affect our ability to expand; for example in 2010 when we won 23% of the vote, we came second place in 243 Seats, whereas in 2024, when we won only 12% of the vote we came second in only 27. Given we are now polling as low as 8%you may judge for yourself how that will affect us.
In this context Starmer’s resignation as an MP, in what has been dubbed his “Last U-Turn” after promising to stay on until the next General Election has presented Liberal Democrats with a golden opportunity, it is unlikely that Reform or the Conservatives will do well here and given it is the Seat of a former Prime Minister it is all the more notable of a by-election. The challenge of course being that it is a Labour safe seat, and the fact Zack Polanski is running. We should make no bones about the fact Polanski’s leadership as leader of the Green Party is a threat to our position as the progressive alternative to Labour, in the last set of locals the Greens made gains in areas that once would’ve been strong for us such as in Manchester, even if we don’t win, denying him a victory will benefit us, as it will halt his already slowing momentum and any Labour candidate will have to weather the struggle of incumbency anyway.
It is in this respect that our success in becoming a Party of local Government may aid us, we need to make it clear to voters that we are not simply a tactical choice, but the practical choice. There is much a point to be made about our success with the four-day work week, which Labour opposed, or our success in pushing for expanded housebuilding programmes, which the Greens opposed – and both of these are in Cambridgeshire alone. Additionally there is a narrative we can form about those disillusioned with failed Prime Ministers seeing a brighter future in us given we already hold Theresa May’s former Seat. The opportunity is here, we just need to grab it
If you’re near the area and/or have some spare time I would highly recommend getting in contact with the Camden Liberal Democrats and asking what you can do to help out. If we want to win over 100 Seats at the next General Election, or even break Asquith’s record, we need to make it clear to Britain that Liberals have not just the policy, but the momentum to be in power next time.
* Rosemary Runswick is a Liberal Democrat activist in West Suffolk and a member of the Radical Association. She writes a blog at the Green Ribbon Club (https://greenribbonclub.blogspot.com/p/about.html).
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New crematorium evacuated just weeks after opening as firefighters rush to scene
Lib Dems just miss out on another council by-election gain.
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Mick Taylor
49 Comments
Totally agree.
A campaign that emphasises closeness to Europe, strong defence now the US is unreliable, growth and actually doing something about climate change s what I would like to see.
There is even a Gail’s in the Brunswick Centre.
As far as I can see from
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holborn_and_St_Pancras
https://tinyurl.com/mtym5knx
and https://tinyurl.com/4vwct8wh
The constituency is within the London Borough of Camden, on which we have ten councillors – but all are in the north-west of the borough, not in the Holborn_and_St_Pancras constituency and our election track record in the constituency is not great after 2010.
Not saying we should not put resources into this by-election – it has too high a profile not to be treated seriously.
But let’s have some serious and achievable objectives please.
Totally agree as well. This is a chance to test out our anti Labour messages and try out new techniques to see if we can wrest votes from both Labour and the Greens. Tristan has identified 3 lines of attack, I would add voting reform and campaigning for small businesses and cooperatives.
I was pleased to see at least one of our MPs has already been door knocking in H&SP. All our MPs should be offering their services as well as London assembly members and councillors all over London. Let’s give this our best shot.
What Our Party deserves in this By-election is some hard thinking first of all. Can we make an intervention that would attract some National Publicity ?
The only thing I can suggest is if We campaign on one or two issues that make The Right-Wing Media so angry that they forget to ignore Us.
If people are thinking that We might win or come 2nd ( or 3rd, 4th or 5th) then they are fooling themselves. This By-election will be a Two-Horse Race between Labour & The Greens with a Secondary race for 3rd place between Reform & The Conservatives; everyone else will be squeezed “till the pips squeak”.
“The only thing I can suggest is if We campaign on one or two issues that make The Right-Wing Media so angry that they forget to ignore Us.” – and that includes social media. Europe certainly fits that criterion. Climate change is also something we should be more strident on than the Greens. Many Green activists and presumably voters are noticing that Polanski has shifted the party’s focus away from green issues.
I would not put any national resources into this by election. It looks extremely unpromising, as it will clearly be a two horse race between Labour and Greens.
If I lived in the constituency, I would not vote Liberal Democrat in the by election, because I would regard that as a wasted vote. I would decide which of Labour and Greens I dislike more (the Greens) and vote for the other party.
I agree. We are not in the running for this seat. However we must hope that Green party do not win. Next year’s local elections are going to be truly massive and we should keep our powder dry
Mohammed how on earth you do expect us to grow. It is essential we campaign and hard, with a good local candidate. It is an opportunity no time for defeatism. Come on smell the coffee. We MUST
stop standing aside and have self confidence and attack the crazy policies of the Greens and their leader.
I appreciate the concerns here that we are not in the running for this Seat currently, but this has not always been the case, at one stage we were the main challenger in it coming in with 29.3% of the vote in 2005. It is an area we have lost ground in, but a prime target to rebuild in as well. If we never try and build up support in these areas we will never be in with a chance of winning them at all.
Rose, so right.
If we let Polanski win we ill regret it for a decade. Give it the full monty.
Rose spot on.
If a Lib Dem stands you vote for him or her
Those of you arguing against fighting this are taking existing strength at local level as destiny, the be-all and end-all of the decision to fight or not.
But that is NOT the whole story: we know that Labour and Greens will run negative campaigns – in Labour’s case focusing on Polanski’s manifest populist failings.
This gives us the chance to present ourselves as a viable, positive, optimistic alternative. The psephological dynamics of the by-election could work strongly in our favour.
This factor makes it different from Denton and Gorton.
Likewise, we do have local activist strength in Camden, unlike in Denton and Gordon.
We should give this a go and see if we can come through the middle.
I agree with Rose’s final comment. If we only bother in seats we can win or come second we won’t make real progress. In May this year I stood in a ward that had not had a Lib Dem candidate for 16 years. In May 2010 there were two vacancies, and our candidates gained 740 and 728 votes. Despite emphasising Lib Dem values in my election address, with a background of no activity in the ward for so long, Reform won the seat from Labour which had held the seat almost permanently, and I came last of five with 144 votes. But if we don’t make a serious effort to challenge parliamentary by-elections when they occur, why should we expect the public to award us any credibility.
I’m probably in a minority on this but….
How about we announce that we will not stand a candidate because we wish to support a candidate who supports PR, rejoining the EU and fighting climate change – and we recognise that..unusually…the Greens are better placed than the Liberal Democrats to win this seat. We then get our leader to visit the constituency to urge Liberal Democrats to lend their votes to the Greens for this by-election.
If the Greens win, we claim to have made a significant difference to the outcome. If they lose, we claim that we tried to work across Parties for the common good and hope the Greens will act in a similar way in the next by-election where we are likely to be the best-placed challenger. Either way, we remain relevant.
Far better than standing and getting a derisory 1 or 2% of the vote…..
@Jana I think this would be a bad idea for reasons outlined in my blog; Polanski winning would give the Greens a boost to our detriment as our voters have proven to be at least somewhat fluid with that of the Greens – though this does apply both ways – and I’m not sure the average voter is engaged enough to see anything other than a “Green surge in London” if we didn’t stand.
There is an argument that the run of by-elections there have been since 2023 has been against us because none of them has been in a seat we were seriously in contention in… but that itself is an indictment of our over-concentration over the last decade or so. The last time there was a by-election called in the Denton constituency, in 2017, it was a by-election we were fighting to win until it was overtaken by Theresa May’s snap general election. That we were nowhere near that level at the most recent by-election is not adequately explained by the new boundaries being less favourable, but to Rose’s point, the fact that the party seems to have been content to let its vote atrophy in areas it was not already above an arbitrary threshold. There is a sense of managed decline about this trend that does not suggest the party’s leadership is interested in reversing it.
They are welcome, of course, to prove me wrong at their convenience.
I can’t believe some of the negative and defeatist comments made above.
We should contest this by-election with 100% effort.
The most important factor will be our selection of a charismatic candidate – if we can find one.
Just imagine if we’d taken the same attitude as some of the people in this blog and decided not to fight Bermondsey in 1983, a seat we unexpectedly won and then held until 2015.
I don’t expect us to win this by-election, but in today’s volatile political climate, who knows. What the by-election gives us is a whole series of opportunities. We can test out our policies like rejoining the EU, tackling climate change, a new approach to economics, electoral and political reform and messages designed to appeal to Green and Labour voters.
In addition we can start to build the party in this derelict part of Camden and identify people to run the party there and identify council seats to start targeting for 2030.
Sorry Jana, but the only people we can trust to deliver electoral reform are ourselves. Last time we made a deal with Labour on this, in 1997, they had the Jenkins commission and then did nothing. It was the same in 1977 when Labour promised PR for European elections as a part of the Lib/Lab pact and then reneged on their promise.
Let’s go for it wholeheartedly.
“Sorry Jana, but the only people we can trust to deliver electoral reform are ourselves.”
Sorry Mick Taylor, but the Lib Dems acting alone don’t stand a snowball’s chance in hell of delivering electoral reform.
Sure, whenever Labour think they can win on their own, they drop any thoughts of electoral reform like a hot potato. But that doesn’t apply to the Greens. It’s not that the Greens are necessarily any more principled, it’s just that their self-interest in electoral reform will be more consistent.
So why don’t you guys announce that you could consider supporting the Greens under the right circumstances?
The Greens would probably be quite happy to agree noisily that they will campaign on electoral reform, Europe and climate change, and welcome Lib Dem support. (They will know that if they can stop Burnham from hoovering up past LD voters, then that could be crucial in winning the seat.)
Then you can beam and shake MP Polanski’s hand, and then set about holding Burnham’s feet to the fire in Parliament, where you are well placed to take the lead. Wouldn’t that be better than one more badly lost deposit?
“I agree. We are not in the running for this seat.”
But as pointed out in the OP, the Lib Dems are in second place in only 27 seats. You could wait the whole Parliament without there being a by-election where ‘we are in the running’
If you are in favour of mind-boggling defeatism and negativity, then back the ‘do nothing’ brigade. That’s a sure fire way of underscoring our irrelevance.
The value here is what we learn, not just where we finish. This is a constituency with a lot of independent businesses and a lot of urban liberal-minded voters, and we still do not have a good message for them. A by-election with this much attention is the cheapest place to test one, and if it works we can use it in other city seats.
David Allan, you build a whole argument on something I didn’t say. The issue with electoral reform is who can you trust? I only made the point that you CAN trust the LibDems on electoral reform and I don’t think you can trust Labour or the Greens.
The thought of MP Polanski is not to be contemplated. We must make sure he doesn’t win. Anyway, not standing will not help him as LibDem voters may not choose him rather than Labour as polling has demonstrated.
If we don’t start fighting seriously in seats like this, we lose all claim to be a national party and will never make the breakthrough to government. Winning in leafy Tory seats, when the Tories are on their uppers is no guarantee of a successful future.
We are not the Labour Party mark 2, we are not Polanski’s type of Green Party and we’re certainly not Tories. This by-election, where we have absolutely nothing to lose, is a perfect opportunity to set out our stall as a political party and challenge voters to support it. No tactical voting, no bar charts, just a sound political message.
@Mick Taylor
“ Last time we made a deal with Labour on this, in 1997, they had the Jenkins commission and then did nothing.”
Perhaps. You are forgetting the deal the Scottish Liberal Democrats did with Labour in 2002 about introducing STV for local government elections? As you may recall, this became part of the coalition programme for government for 2003-2007, was enacted, and we have had STV elections for local government in Scotland since 2007.
The difference between the 1997 deal and the Scottish one is that one was before the election and could be immediately renaged on once they were in power. The other was after an election when they needed our ongoing support. The only way we get PR is from a Labour minority that needs a confidence and supply deal. We will never be in that position with the Greens.
“This by-election, where we have absolutely nothing to lose, is a perfect opportunity to set out our stall as a political party and challenge voters to support it.”
Well quite – I just don’t get the LD strategy at the moment. It felt like Aberdeen South was a similar ‘no risk’ free swing (seat with some historic success, background of pretty decent Scottish elections including in that region) that have merited a bit of a punt. Both those can apply a bit here as well and again no-one would really be expecting the LDs to deliver spectacular results so its a bit of a free swing.
If we let the Greens win here it’s bad news for all our MPs who have slim majorities that largely depended on the tactical Green vote in 2024. We are disappearing from public conscience because we’re so nice and sensible the mainstream media don’t have a story about to tell except that we’re invisible.
Any news would be good. Haven’t we got a public figure who might appeal to sensible people? If not then back Labour!
@Pawel I agree totally, even if we lose a deposit there is much to be gained from a strong campaign in terms of local party teambuilding and fundraising from potential new supporters. Plus, there is much to gain in terms of learning more about constituents that will allow us to be better prepared to appeal the next time round.
We have nailed what works in our rural-facing Constituencies, fighting for better social care and against the sewage dumping of water companies, now we need to figure out what we can do to appeal in urban areas. I’ve seen a lot of good suggestions in this thread so far on the EU and defence in addition to my own points!
“If we let the Greens win here it’s bad news for all our MPs…”
The choice is between letting the Greens score a big (maybe winning) vote against a Lib Dem lost-deposit candidate, or letting the Greens score a big (maybe winning) vote which is also widely recognised as a credit to the Lib Dems.
Thanks to the Lib Dems, that is, for having been big enough to get away from narrow tribalism, and to put the national interest ahead of petty party political infighting.
Camden Lib Dems and London Lib Dems should take on the by-election themselves, if the national party are going to be defeatist or indolent.
There will be plenty of help too from the “leafy” Home Counties.
Think tactically: the psephological dynamics could well go in our favour particularly with a strong local candidate. There’s going to be intense negative campaigning by Labour against Greens and vice versa. Precisely the dynamics of some famous victories from the past.
Where we work we save our deposit.
@ David Allen
The general public won’t notice your fine distinctions. It might notice a strong showing from a truly liberal party against democratic socialists and against nut cases.
More generally this by election is a chance to make a case for
Strong defence when Britain can no longer rely on the US (the Greens don’t)
Engagement with Europe as a basis for restoring growth (the Green won’t like growth) enabling people to improve their lives where Labour is making a mess of the economy with their National Insurance rises hitting jobs and businessses.
Real action on climate change where Labour is backtracking.
Backing the European Convention on Human Rights.
There is a constituency in the country for this offering. People need to hear it. Otherwise it goes by default.
No excuses accepted. The by-election is in ‘Middle England’s’ backyard.
“This by-election, where we have absolutely nothing to lose, is a perfect opportunity to set out our stall as a political party and challenge voters to support it”
I agree with Mick. This is part of the realignment of British politics as what was the Conservative Party splits into ethno-nationalist and conservative liberals while democratic socialism disintegrates. It ought to be possible for a liberal party to make progress in this environment.
@Rose – Thank you. My sense is that urban seats want the liberal argument made in full, not a local version of the rural one. Housing costs, the case for being closer to Europe, civil liberties, and honest competence on the economy. If any of that is missing, the Greens take the protest vote and Labour keeps the seat by default. Holborn is the place to find out whether we can say all of that and be believed.
Pawel – there’s always and only one single ‘liberal’ argument? Interesting…
@ Matt
The “liberal argument” – as I understand it – is that liberty for individuals is paramount, and (given that a state must exist if we are to avoid anarchy so that life is not nasty brutish and short) the state’s job is to maximise liberty for its citizens. A practical aim might be to eliminate enslavement by poverty, ignorance and conformity.
There is always an argument within liberalism as to how the state best does this – either by withdrawing, or by interfering, but to me these seem typically to be arguments over policy rather than philosophy. Dogmatic insistence that things must or must not be state owned seem to be illiberal to me.
Hmm, yes, but its a long way from an ideological principle to a set of policy prescriptions and not fair to set them up as inevitable and immutable.
A campaign in the constituency has to start NOW. The weekend saw literally hundreds of Labour Party and Green Party activists out on the streets delivering leaflets and knocking on doors. Both parties have delivered the entire constituency at least once already and they will be out every day from now on. When is our Action Day?
@ Craig I understand it’s a mere three miles from Party HQ to the constituency……. yet the party hasn’t even got a candidate (applications close on Friday 11 September).
Surely it must have been obvious Keir Starmer was likely to resign months ago. Time to wake up.
“The general public … might notice a strong showing from a truly liberal party against democratic socialists and against nut cases.”
Don’t kid yourselves. In current betting odds, Labour are 2/5 on, Greens 2/1 against, Lib Dems 250/1 against. The punters don’t often get it badly wrong:
https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/holborn-st-pancras-by-election
@Craig
The Lib Dem Camden party was out all last weekend, including volunteers from outside the Camden area. They have more plans for the rest of the campaign. They are being supported by London region and I know at least one London MP is involved as well.
I assume people who wan to support the campaign can make contact with the Camden party here: https://www.camdenlibdems.org.uk/
That suggests we should beat the Tories and Reform could be caught if we work it. Third place from fifth is worthwhile.
@Tristan Ward:
The London LDs and the Camden party need to send their own calls for help to all other local parties in London and all the local parties in the surrounding Home Counties.
There are numerous activists within an hour of H and St P by public transport.
If the national party won’t do it, London LDs and Camden LDs need to step into the gap.
Rose is right.
Politics is not a dance. It is a fist fight. Often outside the ring, out in the street. Even the Greens have worked that out by now.
And if we want to win, we need to accept that and learn to fight properly.
Do not be afraid of anger. Do not hand it to Reform. Do not be afraid of being distinctive. Do not be afraid of conflict. Do not be afraid to say clearly who we are and what we stand for.
Because, for God’s sake, our fellow citizens deserve someone who will start defending them instead of exploiting them.
We also cannot treat simply holding what we already have as success. We are the third party in the House of Commons, but around fifth in the polls. Defending seats can be a success for the electoral machine. It is not necessarily a political success.
A political party is supposed to fight for power. If it starts mainly protecting what it already has, sooner or later someone bolder will take the rest away.
That is exactly why we should go into Holborn and St Pancras seriously.
Nobody gives us much of a chance there? Good. The risk is small, and the stakes are much bigger than one seat.
Let’s show them we know how to fight.
Election is 4 weeks Thursday.
Lets end the debating and get on with a real campaign, and show no mercy to the madness of the Greens. Otherwise we will have no future.
@Michal Simon I couldn’t have said it better myself, your comment is brilliant and made me smile. 😀
Local Green challenging Polanski for the nomination. Gives s time to get in there before they have a candidate.
This is a winnable seat in 2033/4 but we have to seriously start NOW.
“Why Holborn and St Pancras deserves our all”
It’s not getting it, is it?
So much for motivating the troops!