Texas

Watch Texas. Especially watch the Senate race between Democrat James Talarico and Trump-backed Republican Ken Paxton.

Texas is a bright-red Republican state. Its Stetson-wearing inhabitants openly carry guns on their hips and year after year return a far-right Republican governor and legislature. A Democrat has not won a Senate seat since 1988.

For that reason, the prestigious election-watching Cook Report has consistently classed Texas as “lean Republican.” It has recently, however, changed its classification to a “toss-up.”

A big part of the change is cash. In America advertising wins votes. Advertising costs money so elections usually go to the candidate who has raised the most money. So far Talarico has raised $68.6 million—seven times the paltry $7.5 million raised by Paxton.

Texas’s other Senator, Republican Ted Cruz, has publicly said he is worried. So has Senate Majority leader John Thune. The reason for their concern is that holding Texas is now seen as vital if the Republicans want to retain control of the Senate.

Republicans are already under pressure in Maine, Michigan and Ohio, while Alaska and Iowa have also moved into toss-up territory. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to take control. If they can make the expected gains elsewhere, Texas could become the seat that tips the balance. If that happens then bright red Texas is all that stands in the way of a Democrat-controlled Senate, and, at the moment, opinion polls range from a dead heat to a slight lead for Talarico.

Paxton desperately needs money, and it may be riding over the horizon next week in the form of Donald Trump. The President’s MAGA Inc. Super PAC is sitting on a staggering $403.45 million. Even a fraction of that could transform Paxton’s campaign. Elon Musk has already started the cavalry charge: his America PAC has spent nearly $250,000 supporting Paxton.

Next week Trump rides into Dallas for the Republican Party’s first mid-term convention. It would be the perfect stage on which to announce a major financial intervention. The problem is that Trump has so far proved remarkably reluctant to open his enormous political wallet for other Republican candidates. But if he lets Paxton go under, he could help lose the Senate as well as the House.

United States

This week a new set of US tariffs took effect. They range from just under 25 percent to 100 percent and have been slapped on the importation of drones.

The official reason for the tariffs is national security. In the normal course of events this explanation would have been accepted without question. Drones have become an essential part of the country’s defence network and currently a big chunk of America’s drones come from China.

But there is much, much more to the story and it involves Eric Trump and Don Trump Jr who stand to financially benefit—big time—by the tariffs.

But there is much more to the story. Eric Trump and Donald Trump Jr. have investments linked to four US-based drone manufacturers — Anduril, Unusual Machines, Powerus and XTEND — all operating in a sector that stands to benefit from the new tariffs. Donald Trump Jr. became a strategic adviser to Unusual Machines in 2024 and was awarded 200,000 shares for his services, worth roughly $1 million at the time of a Forbes valuation in 2025. After the tariffs were announced the share price of Unusual Machines jumped 24 percent.

The potential conflict of interest has already attracted political scrutiny. A group of Democratic legislators led by Senator Elizabeth Warren has asked the Pentagon’s Inspector General to investigate 15 defence companies backed by funds associated with the Trump sons. According to the Washington Post, those companies have received at least $3.2 billion in federal contracts, investments and loans.

France

This week French President Emmanuel Macron crossed the English Channel (which the French call La Manche, or “The Sleeve”), to open the Bayeux Tapestry exhibition at the British Museum.

He then travelled across London town to Downing Street to become Prime Minister Andy Burnham’s first foreign visitor. The visit had major symbolic as well as practical reasons.

On the practical front, the two men announced measures to combat the people smugglers and the small boat crossings. These included 45 additional French officers, stronger investigative teams and an additional $662 million to stop the l boats.

The two men also discussed establishing assembly lines Ukraine for the British long-range Scalp missiles. The Strait of Hormuz and Israel’s settlement plans were also on the agenda.  Burnham pushed Macron for British exemptions to the “Made in Europe” procurement policy which Burnham complained would hit British agriculture, British Steel and other industries.

On the symbolic front, it mattered that Macron was Burnham’s first foreign visitor. Since De Gaulle, France has often been the principal continental obstacle to Britain’s ambitions in Europe. British diplomacy has consequently worked hard to find common ground with Macron, who has become increasingly receptive to closer UK-EU cooperation in the post-Brexit world.

But Macron leaves office next spring and a much more intriguing phase of French foreign policy may follow. Marine Le Pen, leader of the far-right National Rally, currently dominates first-round polling for April’s presidential election. She is anti-immigration, deeply Eurosceptic, historically sympathetic to Moscow and much warmer towards Donald Trump than Macron.

If she has an obvious ally in British politics, it is Nigel Farage. This week National Rally president Jordan Bardella travelled to Reform’s Birmingham conference, where he and Farage announced a joint plan on Channel migration. One current poll puts Reform on 29 per cent, with Labour and the Conservatives tied on 17.

Montenegro

France is also set to play a major role in the EU-accession ambitions of Montenegro. The tiny Balkan country has been moved to the top of the list for those countries most likely to win the coveted title of Member of the European Union. It would be the third member of the former Yugoslav Republic to join the EU. Slovenia and Croatia are already members.

At a summit in June, the EU delegation were full of praise for the Montenegrins’ efforts in aligning their country’s standards with those of the European community. The Brussels contingent saw no technical reason stopping Montenegro’s accession to the EU in 2028.

Montenegro’s former foreign minister Jovana Marovic was quoted this week in “The Economist”  as saying that “the atmosphere in Montenegro is almost euphoric, as if EU accession is already a done deal.”

Unfortunately for the Montenegrins, it isn’t. French  law requires a referendum or the support of three-fifths of both houses of the National Assembly, to approve the accession of a new member. But according to Eurobarometer, just 35 percent support expanding the EU. President Macron is among them. But he is out of office in less than a year and Marine Le Pen is firmly opposed to enlargement.

* Tom Arms is foreign editor of Liberal Democrat Voice. He also contributes to “The New World” magazine and lectures on world affairs. He is the author of “America Made in Britain,” two editions of “The Encyclopaedia of the Cold War” and “The Falklands Crisis.”