LibLink: Mark Pack – It ain’t just that swing

Over at The Guardian’s Comment Is Free website, LDV Co-Editor Mark Pack explains why ‘uniform national swing’ probably won’t help to predict the election result. Here’s an excerpt:

… UNS predictions based on the correct vote shares are far from perfect. In the last three general elections, UNS predicted the Conservatives would get 42 seats more than they did (1997), 15 more (2001) and 13 less (2005). For Labour UNS predicted 23 too few (1997), 10 too few (2001) and 14 too many (2005). For the Liberal Democrats it was 18 too few (1997), 5 too few (2001) and spot on (2005). … So if the election is looking close, we won’t know the result until after the polls close, no matter how precise the predictions may sound.

You can read Mark’s article in full here.

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This entry was posted in LibLink and Polls.

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