LibLink: Mark Pack – It ain’t just that swing

Our place to talk – an independent website for supporters of the Liberal Democrat party in the UK.

The most-read independent website by and for Lib Dem supporters. Not paid for by trade unions or millionaires.

Advert

LibLink: Mark Pack – It ain’t just that swing

By NewsHound | Sun 11th April 2010 - 4:50 pm

Over at The Guardian’s Comment Is Free website, LDV Co-Editor Mark Pack explains why ‘uniform national swing’ probably won’t help to predict the election result. Here’s an excerpt:

… UNS predictions based on the correct vote shares are far from perfect. In the last three general elections, UNS predicted the Conservatives would get 42 seats more than they did (1997), 15 more (2001) and 13 less (2005). For Labour UNS predicted 23 too few (1997), 10 too few (2001) and 14 too many (2005). For the Liberal Democrats it was 18 too few (1997), 5 too few (2001) and spot on (2005). … So if the election is looking close, we won’t know the result until after the polls close, no matter how precise the predictions may sound.

You can read Mark’s article in full here.

Read more by NewsHound or more about Mark Pack.
This entry was posted in LibLink and Polls.

Advert

Post a Comment

Lib Dem Voice welcomes comments from everyone but we ask you to be polite, to be on topic and to be who you say you are. You can read our comments policy in full here. Please respect it and all readers of the site.

To have your photo next to your comment please signup your email address with Gravatar.

Your email is never published. Required fields are marked *

Name *

Email *

Website

Comment

Please complete the name of this site, Liberal Democrat ...?

Most Read

Op-eds

Reflections on the Hungarian Election (Theo Brown)
How to stop Labour stealing our lunch on Europe (Blaise Baquiche)
Mississippi: Historic change has come at last (The Voice)
The only Tory MP to join the SDP (Cody Butler)
A Proposed Alternative to Coalition: The Reserved Time Confidence Agreement (Owen Driscoll)

Advert

Recent Comments

Jana
Looks like a night that would have pleased Restore who contested all 6 seats, with a huge 27.8% in Huncoat and other results between a low of 4.4% and 11.3%. ...
Jamie Dobson
Distinctive food for contemplating - and acting upon!...
PM
@ Russell, So you are saying the Windrush and other Caribbean migrants, most migrants from counties like Nigeria, India etc have been a drain on the economy....
Graham Jeffs
@Tristan Ward Your argument is perfectly sound. We don't have to move to the right - many who have voted Conservative over the past decades have done so ...
Denis Mollison
I was at the announcement (in Wadebridge I think) of the result in April 1966 when John Pardoe won it back from the Conservatives! Good to see this repeated at ...