Over at The Guardian’s Comment is Free website, LDV Co-Editor Mark Pack, until last year working at the heart of Lib Dem HQ, picks out his ten must-watch seats to find out how the party is faring.
They range from northern seats where the main challenger is Labour (eg, Leeds North West and Durham) to southern seats where the tussle is with the Tories (eg, Eastleigh and Guildford). Scotland is represented by
Dunfermline and Fife West (2am)
Held after his byelection victory by Willie Rennie, this Scottish seat will throw light on not only how the Lib Dem-Labour battle in Scotland is going but also how soft or hard the SNP vote is in such contests. Will this be an election where the SNP strengthen its position following the last Scottish parliament elections or will the Liberal Democrats once again be the main challengers to Labour at Westminster elections?
and Wales by
Brecon & Radnorshire (2am)
This seat will give a clearer sense of how the Liberal Democrat-Conservative contest is playing out. With a majority of under 4,000 to overturn, a rampant Conservative party would be hoping to take the seat from Roger Williams. A Liberal Democrat hold is looking far more likely, but by how much?
And a couple of seats which have attracted scant media attention, but plenty of attention from the Lib Dem leadership, are also highlighted: Wrexham and Redcar.
You can read Mark’s article in full here.
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2 Comments
Doh! There is a three way marginal in South Wales missed off the list, and once again the three-way marginal of St. Albans and Sandy Walkington fails to get a plug.
Quite right about Redcar, despite a brilliant performance in the local elections, which at least shows the strength of the local machine, its potential was totally overlooked by the radar operators, who perhaps dont read the ALDC column on page two of Liberal Democrat News very closely.
I guess this list is based more on declaration time than anything else.
There will be some very interesting seats : Torbay is usually early to declare, (barring recounts) and will give a better indictation than Eastleigh, which the Lib Dems dominate at local level and Chris has a very high profile.
Watford, where Nick started the campaign may show what happens in three way marginals.
Losing Wells or Aldershot, where the expenses issue may come into play would be a sure sign of the Tories are having problems.
Some of the seats Lib dems could win are so individual, it may not tell us much beyond what is happening locally.