Over at the Politics.co.uk website, LibDemVoice Co-Editor Stephen Tall looks at the party’s prospects in Thursday’s elections. Here’s an excerpt:
With the Lib Dems’ national poll ratings flat-lining at around 10-12%, the party faces the uncomfortable prospect of a classic pincer-movement: losing to Labour our hard-won gains in the urban north, and losing to the Tories the no-less-hard-won gains in the suburban south. How the party fares against Labour in Sheffield, Manchester and Cambridge – where there are sitting Lib Dem MPs, including Nick Clegg – and against the Tories in Eastleigh, Three Rivers and Cheltenham will be a crucial test for whether the party will be able to dig in for the 2015 general election. Though Lib Dem representation on local councils is important in its own right, a critical mass of active councillors is crucial for any Lib Dem MP hoping to retain their seat in 2015.
As it is, the total number of Lib Dem councillors across the UK looks set to fall to below 3,000, its lowest level in two decades. That figure is half Labour’s total, and one-third of the Tories’. For a party that prides itself on community politics, of embodying the very best of local government in action, this is a major setback. …
In many voters’ eyes, the Lib Dems are now tainted by their association with a Conservative party that appears to have reverted to type by cosying-up to the rich and powerful Murdochs of this world, and to be governing in their interests by cutting the 50% top-rate of tax.
If there’s one thing that might cheer Lib Dem supporters on Friday morning it’s that the Tories (Boris aside) are also likely to suffer a bad night. There will appear to be some justice in the fact that both coalition parties are sharing in this government’s mid-term blues, not just the junior partner.
You can read Stephen’s post in full here.
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7 Comments
There will appear to be some justice in the fact that both coalition parties are sharing in this government’s mid-term blues, not just the junior partner.
Sorry, no, I don’t see “some justice” in both coalition parties suffering. This is a Conservative-led government with, as Liam Fox put it, the junior partner with just one sixth of its MPs having no ability to dictate its broad thrust. It’s not even as if the Liberal Democrats were influential in “putting in” the Conservatives rather than Labour – the balance following the 2010 general election meant there was only one viable government, all we did was acknowledge what the electorate and the electoral system had given. There is no “justice” in us getting equal blame for it, the only thing that would be “justice” would be if the blame fell on the Conservatives alone, because it is a government predominantly of what they want with only a little of what we want. So it really does take the biscuit to suggest we should somehow feel grateful if we are only getting equal blame rather than most of the blame.
It would be nice if the left in this country were rooting for us in the government, cheering on every little victory we are able to achieve against the Conservatives there. If that were the case, we would have the outside support to be able to push for much more, we would have the moral force to face down the Conservatives. Of course I am not so foolish as to suppose that ever would happen, rather, knowing the Labour Party, the opposite was always going to happen, as it has. The Labour Party would much rather see this country pushed to the right and people made miserable by the Tories and alongside that our party destroyed, than a more decent government and our party surviving. That is why, as we saw very much with the last Budget, not only will they not support us in what small gains we did make, they will actually join the political right in misrepresenting those gains. We are their real enemy, and destroying us forever is their number 1 priority.
A decent leader of the Liberal Democrats would have realised this and made absolutely sure not to give them any ammunition. Anyone who has any experience of how the Labour Party reacts when it loses, of how the Labour Party work in a balance of power situation would have avoided the honey traps set for us by the Conservatives, designed to make us look equal in blame for Tory policies while having little real influence, certainly not on the broad thrust. That would have involved, for example, not looking so word beginning with sm and rhyming with rug when we entered the coalition (I am told I am not allowed to use that word in LDV because it is insulting). It would also have involved from day 1 reminding the general public it was they and the electoral system which had given the Tories almost complete power with just 36% of the vote. The only blame we should be accepting is for not attracting enough votes in 2010 to stop them.
@ Matthew Huntbach
Well said – it would have been far wiser for the bulk of the Party to be outside of the Coalition government [probably including the leader], so that this bulk could rebel from time to time – when it was clear the Tories aim was to greatly benefit the rich and Murdoch in particular, at the expense of the majority.
As I have said before, the Party does not seem to have anyone who understands the dark and Machiavellian world of political strategy as it is currently operates – lambs to the slaughter I am afraid!
” the total number of Lib Dem councillors across the UK looks set to fall to below 3,000, its lowest level in two decades. That figure is half Labour’s total, and one-third of the Tories’. For a party that prides itself on community politics, of embodying the very best of local government in action, this is a major setback.”
A major setback might be an understatement. I think one of the major changes we’ve seen over the last 30 years has been the local elections being increasingly seen as opinion poll’s on how the national government is doing. Meaning that national issues and party politic’s has tended to take precedence over local issues.
With the Mayoral elections, particularly in London, we are seeing the election being more about personality and (national) party politics than actual (local) policy. All of which doesn’t bode well for elections for a second chamber.
I am genuinely a bit fed up of hearing the line that there was no alternative to the coalition/. There were. The reason this party is in trouble is that a lot of the vote it had picked up over the years was from voters disillusioned by a centre right economic consensus
The upshot of this round of elections is that the Conservative Party are now going to turn on the Lib Dems as a liability, so you will get more of a push from the right.
…………………………The Labour Party would much rather see this country pushed to the right and people made miserable by the Tories and alongside that our party destroyed, than a more decent government and our party surviving.That is why, as we saw very much with the last Budget, not only will they not support us in what small gains we did make, they will actually join the political right in misrepresenting those gains……………..
That is what every opposition does; do you seriously believe that the Tory leadership didn’t rejoice as the ‘wheels came off’ the economy under Labour. Labour are primarily interested in a Labour government, Tories in a Conservative and Lib Dems (at least our leadership) in just being in government and to hell with our promises.. .
…………………………………………………We are their real enemy, and destroying us forever is their number 1 priority……………………….
I disagree. The Tories will always be their prime target. Over the years I have always been closer to Labour policies than Tory and it is our leadership, not our grass-roots (many of whom have left the party) who have moved closer to Tory values.
Glenn
I am genuinely a bit fed up of hearing the line that there was no alternative to the coalition/. There were.
I did not say that because I like being in coalition with the Conservatives, I hate it, I very much wish we were not in this position. I’m sorry, but if you think there were alternatives, please suggest, because I have been through this argument many times and every time it becomes clear the person suggesting supposed alternatives is pretty naive about how politics works. Everyone who knows what they are talking about can see any sort of minority government suituation would have resulted very quickly in the Tories calling another general election and engineering things to gain a full majority.
What WAS the real workable alternative was going in to coaltion but with a completely different attitude – making it clear from the start we did not like doing it, and we did not expect much from it, and we were doing it only because it was what the voters and the electoral system forced on us.
Jason
(quoting me “We are their real enemy, and destroying us forever is their number 1 priority……………………….”)
I disagree. The Tories will always be their prime target. Over the years I have always been closer to Labour policies than Tory and it is our leadership, not our grass-roots (many of whom have left the party) who have moved closer to Tory values.
Sorry, this is confusing two things. I said nothing about policies. Labour hate us because they hate political pluralism, that has nothing whatsoever to do with whether our policies are more to the left or more to the right. My policy preferences are very much to the left, so I am much closer to Labour than to the Tories, but the difference between me and Labour is that I believe in true democracy and political pluralism, and they do not – they do not even understand it. As I suggested, if Labour really put policy before partisan feelings, they would be supporting the Liberal Democrats in challenging the Tories in government, and cheering on the left of the Liberal Democrats as we do what we can to pull policy their way, working to the point where there is a viable alternative coalition and we can bring down this wretched government. However, they’d rather have this wretched government stay in place and all power to themselves in 3 years time than share power.