Week by week local by-election results can fluctuate greatly as the luck of the draw over which seats are up adds to the variations in local circumstances to produce a large spread of results. However, aggregated over longer periods the pattern of local by-elections does say something about the state of the parties, which is why I’ve been looking at the trend in Liberal Democrat performances since May 2011.
This following graphs show the change in the Liberal Democrat vote share in by-elections, measured since the seat was previously contested and – to even out for those factors – taken in two month averages.
The sort of consistent vote share gains seen in November and December is still a long way short of opposition heydays, but the trend has been one of consistent recovery from May’s nadir.
* Mark Pack is Party President and is the editor of Liberal Democrat Newswire.
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12 Comments
Yes, but in May/June very few (if any) of the by-elections will have been in seats last contested in May 2011. As time goes by, more by-elections will be in those seats, so our comparative change against the last time the seats were fought will improve as we will be starting more by-elections fromthe low 2011 base.
Aggregate scores in three party contests might be a better long term indicator.
Mark – is that excluding seats we didn’t contest on either occasion? ( I assume so)
Even so, the “base” of local election results should always be a small increase in our support because there will be an increased level of activity in at least some seats compared to when they were fought in all ups. So a small increase is actually a standstill.
On Richard Churchs point, our average Vote share over the last 3 months is about 21%. The estimates for The Local Elections in early May were 16 & 17%.
Paul – see Hywel’s point. Many of the May 2011 contests were all-up District elections. I think you have made this sort of point before – and been corrected. I stand corrected if that statement is in error
Hywel: We can dance on the head of a pin whether such contests are excluded or counted as zero vote change as the net effect on the figures is exactly the same 🙂 I agree with you that ‘zero change’ is not a particularly meaningful baseline for judging the results – hence my emphasis on how the change figures have been improving. A small positive increase on its own does not mean that much, but when it’s a continuation of an improving trend then it does start to mean something.
Mark, the trend has NOT been one of consistent recovery – look at the middle two numbers! What matters more is whether these numbers give any indication that May 2012 will be better than May 2011 was. Based on the recent Sunday Telegraph poll, which had extensive voting intention data in the detailed report, my local Councillors look to get wiped out in May, largely due to Lib Dem voters from 2010 being the least certain of how they will vote. But even if 100% of those who did not know how to vote ended up voting Lib Dem, very few seats would be saved. You seem complacent; I’m rather worried.
Growler: The two middle points are both (a) much better than the previous point and (b) much worse than the most recent point – and only slightly different from each other. So yes, it’s not a simple smooth straight line, but there’s a pretty clear trend in that graph. Imagine what it would look like if you tried to draw a trend line through it that was flat – it wouldn’t look like a good fit at all. (Likewise, if you take all the individual data points and look at best fit lines, they show an improvement over time whether it’s a simple straight line or a more complicated best fit that is tried out.)
In terms of your own local results, even if the graph was showing a line shooting up into the stratosphere, it wouldn’t mean you’re going to romp home automatically as there is so much variation around the average. It’s an indication of the way the overall political winds are blowing, which can be helpful but will need lots of hard work from yourself and colleagues to turn into ward victories (as ever!). Undue optimism is certainly foolish, but ignoring any helpful broader trends isn’t so helpful either 🙂
Being in the coalition, perhaps our by-election results are more influenced by what is going on a national level than they were before. It would be interesting to include what Nick Clegg was saying or doing during those periods.
@Growler:
“my local Councillors look to get wiped out in May,”
It is undoubtedly the case that there will be Lib Dem losses in the coming local elections. These will be worse in some places than others but I do not think that they will be as bad, overall, as last year. That is not particularly good news as a second set of sweeping losses (even at a rather lower level), in some Met Districts, would fundamentally change the shape of the Liberal Democrats as a national political party and its ability to campaign effectively in future years. I would like to be impressed by Mark’s statistics but the sample size is a bit low and the seats involved too random to place too much reliance on such ‘trends’.
Lets stop speculating over losses in May and take all the positives that Mark has outlined and use it to fuel a huge comeback in 2012! Lets get to work! Even though my council wont be facing election I’ll be out finding out the key issues facing voters and working towards finally clawing back seats in 2015! Oh and lets not forget the GLA and Brian Paddicks campaign!
@ Joshua
“take all the positives that Mark has outlined and use it to fuel a huge comeback in 2012!”
or to quote Lord Melchett “If nothing else works, then a total pig-headed unwillingness to look facts in the face will see us through.”
Opinion polls in between elections tend to underestimate our strengths in target seats because the question comes out of the blue and the reply often reflects feelings about the national situation rather than either a vote for those really helpful active local councillors or a tactical vote against the people you loathe most.