We’ll have ALDC’s report later, but I just wanted to highlight a couple of things about the local election results.
Losing a seat where the Liberal Democrats have had a strong local councillor is always a disappointment. I remember back in 2012 the joy when we won the Shenfield ward in a by-election. The seat was retained by Cllr Liz Cohen in 2014. Sadly, it was lost in last night’s by-election as Britain Elects tells us:
Shenfield (Brentwood) result:
CON: 57.4% (+19.0)
LDEM: 32.5% (-11.2)
UKIP: 5.7% (-8.1)
LAB: 3.3% (-0.7)
GRN: 1.1% (+1.1)
— Britain Elects (@britainelects) October 29, 2015
Commiserations to the team there who were working very hard to hold the seat. The result was up from the 27.5% we got in the ward this May, but still not enough to hold the seat.
The Brentwood team can take comfort from the knowledge that seats can be regained. They know that from their own experience, but last night, Cllr David White regained the seat he lost in May in the Hellingly ward of Wealdon Council:
Hellingly (Wealden) result:
LDEM – 69.9% (+35.0)
CON – 17.7% (-30.3)
IND – 12.3% (+12.3)
— Britain Elects (@britainelects) October 30, 2015
70% of the vote is pretty impressive, coming as it did with a 30% collapse in the Tory vote. No doubt ALDC will help fill us in on what went on there.
Other things to note are that we didn’t stand candidates in at least two of the by-elections. We had a fall in Peterborough of 4% to 4.1%.
Jeremy Corbyn didn’t do much for Labour’s fortunes in its heartland of Barrow in Furness where they lost 24%, 23% to the Tories. They did gain 12% to hold a seat in Chorley, though, at UKIP’s expense.
* Caron Lindsay is Editor of Liberal Democrat Voice and blogs at Caron's Musings
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16 Comments
I have been looking at changes in our vote share in those byelections where we also stood in May, 12 so far. This is not comparing like with like but its the closest we can get till next may. Of the 12 byelections 9 show a rise in our vote share, giving an average rise of 9% since May. Clearly that must be exagerating the speed of our recovery but I dont doubt that we are recovering.
But what was the turnout?
Generally vote up from May 2015. That is what we require. UKIP mainly down again.
Best result in my mnind was Congleton. A previous strong area, did we not have control for some time, where we have crashed. Yesterday Congleton East, which I am sure we used to hold, up from fourth to a very good second. These are the significant results, gains and losses are okay to highlight but it is the general overall performance, and Congleton for those who do not know where it is, not far over the Staffordshire/Stoke on Trent border in Cheshire, therefore the start of the north. This is in my view, far more significant than the fields of Sussex and Kent.
Encouraging result also in Congleton where May’s order of Con, Lab, UKIP, Lib Dem became Con, Lib Dem, Lab, UKIP!
So Corbyn was not a factor in Chorley..Hmmmmmmm.
Sorry Caron, you must be looking at the wrong figures ref Barrow. Labour romped home with 53% and UKIP beat the Tories into third place.
Caron is looking at the right figures for Barrow but I can see how you interpreted it as wrong. The Tories didn’t have a candidate last time so went up from 0 to 23%. Labour’s percentage fell by 24% because last time it was only a two-way battle (Lab/UKIP).
Peter, they still won, but they lost a lot of their vote.
Sadly some of us want to read much more into moderate progress (at best) in by-elections. I know good party morale is important, but it needs to be realistic morale and not just false optimism. We fell for that in 2015 with the 56 by-elections rubbish and look where it got us.
We have always done better in by-elections than at May simply because we help each other much more than the other parties do. When May comes most of us are in elections of our own and so can’t help. Essentially, unless we are making one or preferably two gains each week on average, we are likely to lose substantial numbers of seats the following May. Currently we aren’t coming close to that, which tells us we have to be more organised and better at asking for and offering help.
Pretending we are doing fine will just entrench the view that we don’t need to improve substantially, when quite clearly we have a lot of improving to do.
@ David Evans
Agree with you in all respects, as someone very local to our fine result last night. It is just the beginning of the beginning though an excellent morale boost for our members and particularly those new members we have gained in Wealden since May. Now we have, here, to build on this result, in preparation for the possibility of further by-elections and towards the County elections in 2017 with all-up elections for Wealden D.C. in 2019.
The general message has to be if you want positive results build up your campaigning organisation to work and communicate with the electors throughout the year.
There is also the fact that since May we have made 13 gains against 3 losses, obviously byelections are different to full elections but why should that help only Libdems ?
Paul, As I said in my previous post ” … simply because we help each other much more than the other parties do. When May comes most of us are in elections of our own and so can’t help.” It has been that way for the last forty years.
Also as a point of clarification, when I said we needed to win one or two by-elections a week I was referring to results in County, District and Unitary Councils not parishes. If we include parish and town counsils we would need to be gaining three or four a week.
October Summary
Conservatives 16,465 votes (27%) winning 10 seats (unchanged)
Labour 14,138 votes (24%) winning 8 seats (unchanged)
Scottish National Party 11,524 votes (19%) winning 6 seats (unchanged)
Liberal Democrats 7,714 votes (13%) winning 3 seats (unchanged)
United Kingdom Independence Party 3,167 votes (5%) winning 1 seat (unchanged)
Green Party 3,029 votes (5%) winning 1 seat (unchanged)
Independents 1,908 votes (3%) winning 2 seats (unchanged)
Plaid Cymru 780 votes (1%) winning 0 seats (unchanged)
Other Parties 1,481 votes (3%) winning 0 seat (unchanged
The SNP is remarkable , 19% of the national vote!! Our return is okay, better than we have been used to 2013 – 15..
Quiet progress. That is the best way.
If my memory serves me right, Hellingly became a Liberal Democrat target because it was part of Norman Baker’s Lewes constituency. Our position in Wealden was very weak then, as it is now, but Hellingly mattered, for the aforementioned reason. Hellingly is more than just the church, the cottages around it, and the moated manor house. There is also a slice of subtopian sprawl emanating from the rapidly expanding town of Hailsham. We make the mistake of thinking that authorities like Wealden are exceedingly wealthy, and therefore irredeemably Tory. They are not. There are many people with quite modest incomes hidden behind the big houses, but we often don’t reach them. I think Matthew Huntbach has made this point on several occasions. But we won’t rebuild our once impressive rural support while our party continues to be infested with free-market fundamentalists who loudly demand the scrapping of planning controls.
Sesenco
The hospital has been demolished and there is little sign of the light railway that ran to it.
There is good reason to think that the success in Hellingly can be extended to Hailsham, Uckfield and other parts of Wealden.