Your next stop is Peterborough!
What a great result in the European elections.
A clear bold message from the Liberal Democrats triumphed over Labour obfuscation and Tory division. Our clear commitment to Stop Brexit and give the people the final say, struck a chord with voters who felt they lacked a voice.
Back on May 2 we Liberal Democrats had our most successful local elections in a decade, gaining more than 700 councillors and taking control of 12 councils.
British politics remains stuck in the quagmire of the June ‘16 referendum result; we do not yet know whether we face an autumn general election or have a chance to lead the Remain cause for a people’s vote on Europe.
But we do know we have a by-election in Peterborough; caused by the expulsion of the former Labour MP following the first successful recall petition in the UK.
Our candidate Beki Sellick and the local team have been working steadily for the last nine months, never knowing when or if this by-election would take place. After two trials, there was a verdict, sentencing, appeals and finally the recall petition. The timing wasn’t great for anyone, but we now have polling day on 6 June. As you may have read elsewhere, there were sustained attempts to have a single strong remain candidate standing as an independent. Unfortunately, these efforts failed at the last minute, and I, as agent, was instructed to get the Lib Dem nomination papers in.
Half the campaign period has already passed, submerged in the European elections. We now have just nine days to make a difference, get as many Liberal Democrat votes as possible, and take advantage of the momentum gained from our local and European election results to demand better and Stop Brexit.
We’ve produced a split election address and handed them into the tender mercies of the Royal Mail, and now we’re getting leaflets out across Peterborough.
We now need you!
Beki is a railway engineer and committed Liberal Democrat – who’s helped fight elections (and travelled to support Parliamentary by-elections) over 30 years. She has been valiantly out in Peterborough with her Brexitometer throughout the winter, keeping the Remain fire burning. She now needs your support. We need more volunteers to deliver targeted leaflets to those voters who should be considering the Lib Dems, as well as those prepared to knock on doors or pick up the phone and identify some more Lib Dem voters. Every election can be an opportunity to advance the Lib Dem cause, please make Peterborough your next stop!
* Andy Sangar is a councillor in Sheffield and the Liberal Democrat agent for the Peterborough by-election
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21 Comments
Seriously considering it. Where, when, contact details, accommodation?
Be prepared.
The Brexit candidate will be focussing on the issue of democracy.
This is where after a few days of joy, the real work kicks in again. The hard work in the local elections gave us a great boost and a springboard for the Euros. Despite excellent results in May, we only received scant attention in the media, but after the Euro results we could not be ignored. However, if we give them the opportunity, most on the media will gleefully write us off again.
We finished a close third last week in the Peterborough Council area so the opportunity is there. Now we all need to go to Peterborough to build on it again, to wipe the grin off Nigel Farage’s face and to make sure Lib Dem Flag is raised once more in triumph.
I have just tried to get information about Beki Sellick’s campaign and can find no website with HQ address and phone or an email address. Come on guys tell us how to come and help!!!
Beki Sellick
@LibdemBeki
Parliamentary Candidate for Peterborough @LibDems @borolibdems
Try that, Mick. She’s on twitter.
Address: Liberal Democrats, 12 Stapledon Road, Peterborough, PE2 6TD
Phone: 01733 235626
Email: [email protected]
@David Evans: “Now we all need to go to Peterborough to build on it again, to wipe the grin off Nigel Farage’s face and to make sure Lib Dem Flag is raised once more in triumph.” It would certainly put a smile on my face, I’ve a small flutter on us at 50/1. Sadly I doubt that I can make it over to help in person, work and personal commitments will get in the way, but I will probably make a monetary contribution.
Peterborough does feel like a low-hanging fruit ready to be picked by someone outside the big two parties.
So long as Farage’s lot doesn’t win I’ll be happy.
I’m just thinking, Beki Sellick has clearly been a bit of a star for the last few months. Imagine the exhilaration/panic when she heard of the possibility of a by election, then the uncertainty of not knowing whether it would happen, then suddenly it’s on and she gets selected, then ‘oh hang on Beki we might be backing a joint-Remain candidate instead’, then ‘No, we want you to stand after all – and you’ve only got a few hours to get nominated.’ All this time your work and family life have been disrupted, holidays probably cancelled etc. – and of course you’re constantly campaigning.
So yeah. I’ll be doing some telephoning for her. And sending some money too.
I first went up over christmas, was back today and will be back for the rest of the week. It is imperative that we get to Peterborough.
If you can’t get there, please donate or do phone canvassing. We could get a good result if we work
Donations to http://www.beki4peterborough.org.uk . At least Beki should be confident that her campaign funds come from reputable sources…..
Britain Elects
@britainelects
Peterborough (East of England) result:
Brex: 38.3% (+38.3)
Lab: 17.2% (-7.9)
LDem: 15.4% (+10.9)
Con: 10.9% (-14.7)
Grn: 10.8% (+5.1)
UKIP: 3.6% (-29.9)
1,189
12:15 AM – May 27, 2019
TBP’s first Westminster seat?
When earlier in the year Peterborough’s former MP was jailed over a speeding points issue a recall petition was initiated which ended with her losing her seat. The campaign to secure the requisite 10% of voters was backed by both the Tories and LAB and the total required was surmounted by a big margin.
The by-election takes place a week on Thursday and this has the possible rarity of being in a seat which flips between CON and LAB with majorities in the hundreds. Unlike most recent Westminster by-elections this is a tight marginal.
Also after the Euros result yesterday it looks ideal territory for Farage’s Brexit Party. Given the way the two “main” parties are perceived at the moment on Betfair TBP is rated as a 77% chance to succeed.
Although the LDs do hold a few council seats in the city this does not look like obvious territory for them although they are campaigning hard on their opposition to Brexit. ChangeUK is giving this one a miss. The LDs main hopes are pinned on the recall petition currently under way in Brecon and Radnor – a seat they held until GE2015.
With two elections so close to each other my guess is that turnout will be right down even below last Thursday. You can see voters there being election weary especially when faced with fifteen candidates on the ballot paper.
It should be noted that the vote splits from last Thursday’s election above are for the borough which is wider than the parliamentary constituency.
Mike Smithson
A interesting article that was passed on to me – All the best Beki:
I didn’t expect such large numbers that we stay non Tory and Lab: Lord Ashcroft, nowadays a relatively detached observer of British politics, usefully spends some of the money he used to give to the Conservative Party on opinion polling. He has just published his post-voting analysis of the European elections – and it has some encouraging information for Liberal Democrats.
‘The biggest single chunk of Lib Dem support in the European elections came from 2017 Labour voters (37%), with 31% coming from previous Lib Dems and 24% coming from 2017 Conservatives.’
52% of Conservatives who had switched to voting for the Brexit Party said that they intend to stay with the Brexit Party at the next general election; while…
‘Conservatives who switched to the Lib Dems say they are even more likely to stay put: 61% now say they will vote Lib Dem again at the general election, with only 22% saying they expect to return to the Tories. Overall, only 43% of 2017 Conservative voters who turned out in the European elections say they will vote Tory at the next general election.’
‘Half of Labour-Brexit Party switchers said they expected to stay with their new party at the next general election, with only just a quarter saying they expect to go back to Labour. Just over half (51%) of Labour-Lib Dem switchers currently say they will stay with the Lib Dems. Just over half (56%) of 2017 Labour voters say they will back Jeremy Corbyn’s party for Westminster.’
I was there again yesterday and I am planning to go again several times before the polls close next Thursday. I hope to see many more of you, by-election veterans and first-timers alike, in Peterborough.
We are pumped-up with last week’s results, and match-fit from the efforts that earned them. Beki Sellick certainly deserves our support and has been campaigning valiantly for months. Our opponents vote is going to be hopelessly split.
Let’s keep our momentum rolling.
Please come to Peterborough.
I suspect it will go to Labour again . It’s a poor city. The EU elections were mostly down to demonstrating a position on Brexit. Give or take a smidgen of party loyalty, It was essentially a single issue protest vote on both sides. If you go back to the last EU elections UKIP won and then came nowhere in a general election. Most people didn’t bother voting for MEPs at all. This time the turnout was around 37% . The results could be misleading by a large margin because it reflects a little over a 1/3 of the vote on one polarizing topic.
I hope we aren’t just campaigning on Brexit but also telling people about our proposals to invest in public services which need the prosperity we have gained from EU membership, especially education. Farage will try to stir things up about ignoring and despising those who voted Leave, but at the moment he doesn’t have any policies on anything else.
While I understand that the council area is bigger than the parliamentary seat. The parliamentary seat is 60% of the council area.
But taking the European election figures:
There are grounds if we can get the leaflets, door-knockers, phoners to them that a sizeable chunk of the green vote and remainers in other parties could come our way. All of which would suggest a close three-way scrabble between The Brexit Party, Labour and Lib Dems – probably in that order but close and in our hands to change that over the next 7 days.
The turnout in percentage terms will be similar (most likely) and the issue – Brexit the same as the Euros. Indeed who you send to vote on Brexit bills makes it even more a Brexit election than the Euros.
Roy Pounsford, “Lord Ashcroft, nowadays a relatively detached observer of British politics”. Errrrrrr, no, afraid not !
Less than two years ago I was in Brandhoek New Military Commonwealth War Graves Commission Cemetery in Flanders paying my respects at the grave of the double VC medic winner, Dr. Noel Chavasse……. when who turned up but Lord Ashroft. He showed me the actual Chavasse VC & Bar which he owns. All very nice and interesting …… but who was with the noble Lord ? ….. a certain Nigel Farage.
Nige, in his modest way, asked if I would like to have a photo with him. I declined, gently suggested that he ought to get a proper job to which he didn’t reply, made my excuses and left.
I was surprised small Mr Nigel Brexit was….. but elegantly dressed as if for a weekend shoot in the country. I wonder who funds him and pays his bills. Lord A. ?
It’s important to note that the figures quoted by @Roy Pounsford don’t include Change UK who got 3% who are not standing, given that and given we are likely to have done better in the parliamentary seat than across the council, we are in second place.
If this is a Brexit/Remain election with the Lib Dems and The Brexit Party seen to be slugging it out on, on each side then it’s going to be a close battle between us and TBP. Making some fairly conservative and reasonable assumptions you could see:
Brexit 46.0%, LD 27.9%, Lab 13.3%, Con 8.3%,, Green 4.5%, UKIP 0. 3%, Oth 0.1%
And it is likely that we will get a lot closer than that to the TBP.
The figures above use the Ashcroft Poll, uses the city wide 2019 Euro election result and use following rules:
25% of Conservative and Labour Remainers switch to Lib Dems
25% of Conservative and Labour Leavers switch to Brexit
75% of Green remainers go to Lib Dems (the rest Remain, Leave and DKs stay)
Of CHUK, UKIP and others – their remainers go to Lib Dems and their leavers go to Brexit
But it is likely we can get a lot closer – we probably did better in the part of the city that’s in the constituency given we’ve been campaigning there than across the whole city.
But it does show that a very good second and even a very close second or first is now possible – but time is short!
Times 3/6/19 page1 column 1, page 2 columns 3,4,5 reports on an “antisemitism row”.
“Jewish groups have demanded Labour disown its candidate in the Peterborough by-election after the discovery that she had endorsed an anti-Semitic Facebook post”.