Much excitement among Tories today at the arrival of a new Ipsos-MORI poll showing them drawing level with Labour – 36% apiece – among those who say they’re certain to vote. The explanation’s not too hard to hazard a guess at: the return of economic growth is gradually feeding through into a feel-good factor. (For more on this, see this excellent post by YouGov’s Joe Twyman: ‘“It’s the long term trends, stupid”: the Conservatives, Labour and the economy‘.)
However, it was some of the underlying IPSOS-Mori data concerning perceptions of the leaders which caught my eye… (All the graphs below can be found here.)
Nick Clegg’s ratings trail those Cameron and Miliband. But not by much…
Clegg’s net satisfaction among all voters is low, but appears to have bottomed out and is rising
Clegg has a net +25% rating with Lib Dem supporters, highest since January 2012
Clegg’s political alignment is the best match of any party leader with the voters
26% of voters see Clegg as on the left, 20% as on the right, 30% in the centre
* Stephen was Editor (and Co-Editor) of Liberal Democrat Voice from 2007 to 2015, and writes at The Collected Stephen Tall.
Follow @LibDemVoice on Twitter
Like us on Facebook
Subscribe to our feed
Sign-up for our daily email digest
John Stoa Original Art exhibition #dundeewestend
The Muesli Assassins
Nick Cook: England's forgotten spinner of the Eighties
Richard
Tristan Ward
Cllr Gordon Lishman
12 Comments
Graphs really are tremendous fun. Thanks!
The thing that strikes me immeidiately is how much of the data contradicts the consensus/what Everybody” knows.
The voters are now clearer about where Clegg stands (a fall of 6% in dont knows) & see Clegg as farther Left now than 3 years ago.
All 3 main leaders are a bit more popular now that their Parties were at The General Election, but Clegg has gained the most.
I want to support him, but I can’t unless he begins to blend his “pragmatism” with a bit more “idealism” (using Nick’s definitions). I don’t think more of the same will magically make the tide of votes come in.
Of course I knew all along that Nick was the perfect match for the views of the general public (graph 4), that a Lib Dem majority would government would be the most in tune with the public, and that the other parties exist only to thwart the public will.
However, it still might be interesting to know to what extent the near perfect match between “Nick Clegg” and “You” in graph 4 is reflected in individual answers. Presumably left wingers are more likely to consider Nick a left winger and vice versa. But do those in the centre recognise him as being in the centre?
Joe Otten – I would have expected left-wingers to think of Nick as a raging tory and right-wingers to see him as a dangerous leftie.
Right Ed. Typo.
In the immediate aftermath of the conference season the party leaders have all improved their personal ratings, with Miliband easily the winner. But the headline number from this poll is that while (as Stephen reports) the Conservatives have drawn level with Labour based on our current spurt of debt-driven “growth”, support for the Liberal Democrats is down by 1% to 9%, trailing 4th behind UKIP.
There’s nothing wrong with looking for positives in broadly negative data, but Stephen sounds rather like the football manager who says “we might have lost the match 5-0 but hey, we had 51% of the possession”.
@paul barker “The voters are now clearer about where Clegg stands (a fall of 6% in dont knows)”
The polling to which Stephen links show that 53% (an increase since before the conference) “don’t know what Nick Clegg stands for”, the worst figures for any of the party leaders.
@JOe Otten “However, it still might be interesting to know to what extent the near perfect match between “Nick Clegg” and “You” in graph 4 is reflected in individual answers.”
I think you are raising an important point. The centre is hard to define if it ends up being simply an ‘average’ of a few left and right-wing views (wanting public ownership of the energy companies and an end to same-sex marriage would not make somebody centrist). Clegg’s (and Lib Dem’s) particular combination of left and right views across a range of issues may not match many other people’s, but all might consider themselves in the centre.
It would be interesting to know how many of the 29% who put themselves in the centre also put Nick there.
Some of the 30% who put Nick in the centre may come from the 56% who themselves not in the centre.
An interesting polling question might be, “… how would you describe your own views and which of the party leaders, if any, would you describe in the same way?”
With an overall net approval rating of minus 26%, I fear that Mr Clegg should not become too confident of being loudly lauded by the people of Britain.
The contrast with the past is striking. Leaders such as Ashdown, Steel and Kennedy consistently outscored their Labour and Tory opponents on personal popularity.
Of course, not being in government may have helped our past leaders in that respect. They were “their own men”, and so could more easily win plaudits for sincerity and honesty.
However, if Clegg can’t win praise for what he does in government, and can’t implement Lib Dem policies in government, why is it good to be in government?