The Syrian butterfly has flapped its wings and created a political storm throughout the region and well beyond.
Russia has lost a Middle East foothold and global credibility but gained troops for its war in Ukraine. Iran’s “Axis of Resistance” has been reduced to dust. Hezollah has been cut off from its supplier.
All the Arab states will be pleased that the Persians have been humbled but will be worried that they have been backed into the nuclear corner.
China may be casting a covetous eye over the the vacuum left by a weakened Russia in Central Asia, Middle East and the south Caucasuses. Joe Biden sees an “historic opportunity.” Donald Trump sees an exit.
Israel sees an opportunity to expand its territory and influence, and a chance to remove both Iran and Syria as major foes.
Western intelligence chiefs have expressed concerns about an upsurge of Islamic violence in the West. Those fleeing Hayat Tahrir al- Sham (HTS) may increase the number of refugees heading West. But then the millions in Jordan, Lebanon, Turkey and Europe may more than balance the books by starting a Great Return.
Turkey is chuffed that the organisation which they sheltered, HTS, in northwest Syria may now rule the rest of the country. This could increase their foothold in 100 square kilometres of Syrian territory and their suppression of Kurdish rebels. The Kurds are worried about the Turks, as are their Israeli and American backers.
A great deal of the above hinges on what follows Bashar al-Assad. Will HTS emerge as the new ruling power in Syria with Abu Mohammed Al-Jolani as its leader? Or will Syria collapse into a feuding patchwork as different factions exploit the political vacuum to vy for power and settle scores piled high during a 13-year-long civil war.
Another big question is the democratic vs Islamic credentials of HTS. It is still proscribed by the UN, US and EU as a terrorist organisation. Its political roots lie with ISIS and Al Qaeeda but much has been made of its leadership’s olive branches to Christians, Druze and different tribal factions. The real nature of the HTS has yet to be determined. But Al-Jolani declared this week in the 8th century Umyyad Mosque: “I don’t want to fight anyone.”
Israel, is taking no chances. In the past week it has conducted more than 400 military strikes against the Syrian army, navy and air force “so that they will not fall into the hands of the Jihadists,” declared Prime Minister Benjamiin Netanyahu. An additional issue is that prominent Israeli fundamentalists speak of an Erez Israel which stretches from the Suez to the Euphrates–swallowing all of Syria.
The string of bases that linked Hezbollah in Lebanon to supply bases in Iran—the “Axis of Resistance” is no more and Al-Jolani has declared he wants all Iranians out of Syria. The only proxy the Iranians have left in the Middle East are the Houthis in Yemen. With Supreme Leader Ali Khameini in his 85th year, the country also faces a succession crisis and the continuing problem of sanctions and a cosmopolitan urban population chafing under religious rule.
This exposes Iran as a possible paper tiger and may encourage Israel—as possibly American hawks—to strike before Tehran has an opportunity to regroup. Alternatively, some believe that incoming President Trump may take advantage of a weakened Iran to strike a deal. While still others, worry that Tehran could be only weeks away from a nuclear weapon.
It is difficult to say whether Russia or Iran are the biggest losers (other than Assad, of course). The Russians this week abandoned their naval base at Tartus and their airbase in Hmeimin. Russia’s world strategy relies on its ability to project power globally on several fronts. The Middle East is at the centre of the geopolitical globe and Syria is at the centre of the Middle East.
Moscow’s Tartus base allowed it to project a naval presence througbout the Mediterranean. Its airbase was used to forward troops to Sudan, Libya and the Sahel region as well as for carpet bombing Syrian rebels.
Some Russian troops may be freed up for the Ukraine War. But one of the reasons for the rapid fall of Assad was that most of the Russian forces in Syria had already been withdrawn for the battle against Kyiv. Donald Trump appears to believe that Russia’s failure in Syria could make it more likely to sue for peacein Ukraine.
Then there is the potential economic fall-out. Russia’s Syrian presence enhanced its position with the Arab-dominated OPEC countries. That position is inevitably weakened at a time when Moscow is increasingly dependent on oil revenues.
Turkey is the biggest winner. It will now be harder than ever to dislodge from the estimated 100 towns and villages it occupies in northwest Syria. Three million refugees are already starting to return home and Turkey this week opened additional border crossings, as did Lebanon and Jordan. Turkish-support for HTS means that it is well-placed to financially benefit from the rebuilding of Syria. The Turkish lira is already the dominant currency.
All the above are just some of the effects of the flapping Syrian butterfly. Effects that will be felt for years to come.
* Tom Arms is foreign editor of Liberal Democrat Voice and author of “The Encyclopaedia of the Cold War” and “America Made in Britain".
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4 Comments
Might it be that that a basic world problem is that powerful and would be powerful nations, plus their acolytes, seek thé domination of other nations rather than running their own nations equitably and well?
Might it be that an unstated policy of the U. S. A. Is to aid the creation of two powerful, opposing theocracies in the Middle East?
Why?
Might such be intended to benefit thé arms industry of the U. S. A.?
Tom, you ask: ‘Will HTS emerge as the new ruling power in Syria with Abu Mohammed Al-Jolani as its leader? Or will Syria collapse into a feuding patchwork as different factions exploit the political vacuum to vie for power and settle scores piled high during a 13-year-long civil war.’
Patrick Cockburn helps answer this: ‘The mystery is not so much the fragility of the Assad regime as the strength of the rebels who destroyed it. Their well-trained, well-armed units burst out of Idlib, the opposition enclave on the Turkish border on 27 November, and never stopped going until they reached Damascus. But Idlib was a much-bombed, deeply impoverished place, not unlike Gaza, with much of its population living in tents. Where did the resources for a well-organised military offensive come from?
The most credible explanation for the blitzkrieg assault by the rebels is that they were trained by Turkey and paid by Qatar. This is the explanation of Steven Simon, a former senior US government official now at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft.
He sees what happened as “essentially a Turkish coup”, arguing that the Turks and Qataris have constituted an axis since the early days of the Syrian civil war in 2011, and they have finally achieved their objective of overthrowing Assad.
Israel and Turkey have won impressive victories, but the struggle for Syria – and the Middle East – will go on.’
Tom, you write now: ‘Turkey is the biggest winner.’ Exactly.
In 2015, I wrote: ‘According to The Foreign Policies of Middle East States by Raymond Hinnebusch and Anoushirivan Ehteshami, Erdogan’s AKP ‘opportunistically identified Syria as a chance to profit by extending its influence closer to home’.
The day before Obama’s call for Assad to step down, Turkey’s foreign minister went to Damascus and made a similar request. Just under a month later Turkey cut all formal contacts with the Syrian regime and gave notice that a strong, bilateral sanctions package was in preparation.
In November, Qatar and Saudi Arabia took the initiative in prompting the Arab League to isolate Syria and dry up the regime’s access to economic resources.
Qatar, home to the America’s largest re-positioning bases outside the USA, spent over $3 billion in arming anti-Assad fighters and in prompting allies in the West and in the Arab
world to do more to hasten the collapse of the Assad regime.
The Syrian people seems decent individuals thrilled to be removed from Assad’s tyranny. What replaces him remains to be seen. I don’t see any of the developments benefitting the Palastineans.